In short: "US shale producers, where you can find them, still offer really attractive assets" — but "we're depleting them rather quickly and it's hard to find really good quality reserves anymore… not enough to build a whole portfolio around the way it was a few years ago." The same slowdown is why G&R bought crude in January: the growth engine that "carried all of global supply growth for the last 15 years was slowing sharply."
American shale was the engine that supplied nearly all of the world's oil production growth for fifteen years, and its slowdown is the reason G&R bought oil in January — before any war. The core of the bull case for crude is that this engine "was slowing sharply" while the market was still pricing it as an infinite backstop.
That creates an awkward split for the equities. Individual shale companies can still be attractive: "US shale producers, where you can find them, still offer really attractive assets." But the qualifier is doing heavy lifting — "we're depleting them rather quickly and it's hard to find really good quality reserves anymore," so this is now a stock-by-stock hunt rather than a sector you can simply own. "Not that it can't be done, but that's maybe not enough to build a whole portfolio around the way it was a few years ago."
34:34Certainly, if you zoom out to look at the whole world, Canada and the United States are still good places to do business. I think that US shale producers, where you can find them, still offer really attractive assets. The problem there is that we're depleting them rather quickly and it's hard to find really good quality reserves anymore.
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