In short: Carried an AFC Uzbekistan CIO Scott Osheroff interview: inflation 15.2% (2018) → 6.4% (July 2026), the som appreciating ~7% in 2025, savings moving into deposits and a corporate bond market where raises went from $2M to $20M+, and a policy rate expected to fall from 14% toward 13%. The Tashkent UCI index was up over 100% in August but is "a flawed index" nobody can decompose — still, "the market is in a significant uptrend which I expect to continue… an inflection point has been reached."
The case for Uzbekistan is a chain of dominoes rather than a story about any company. Inflation fell from 15.2% in 2018 to 6.4% this July. Once prices stop running away, the currency stops falling — it actually rose about 7% against the dollar in 2025. Once the currency is stable, people are willing to put savings into banks instead of hiding cash, and deposit rates can come down (26% to the high teens). Money in the banking system then finds its way into company bonds: firms that once struggled to raise $2 million now raise $20 million-plus, at 18–20% instead of 30%.
The final domino is the one that matters for the stock: as those safe fixed-income yields fall, money starts looking at shares instead. That is why the Tashkent market has been climbing for eighteen months, and why a further central-bank rate cut from 14% toward 13% would push more capital the same way.
To his credit he undercuts his own best headline. The local index was up over 100% in August, but he calls it "a flawed index" — no one, not even the exchange, will explain how it is built, and many of its members are so thinly traded that small buying moves them a long way. The uptrend he believes in; the number he does not.
In short: The listed window on the country thesis he is best known for: "people are like, 'Why does this guy keep talking about Uzbekistan?' It's the only country in the world that grew during COVID" — a post-Soviet apparatchik successor who "realizes that I can steal more if the pie grows," six or seven years on from forced cotton picking. The arithmetic is deliberately undemanding: "I don't have to be a genius if Uzbekistan's going to grow their economy at 7 to 8% ad infinitum… over an investing career of 20 years. All they have to do is just keep doing what they're doing." The host raises the vehicle — "it was a couple of months ago that you did a video on UZNF… I think that's got huge potential. It's up I think about 20% so far since it IPOed" — and Polomny confirms, "yeah, it trades in London." AIA Portfolio holding.
Uzbekistan is a 37-million-person Central Asian country that spent the post-Soviet decades closed and badly run — the state used to conscript citizens to pick cotton by hand. A change of leadership opened it up, and it was the only country in the world that grew through COVID. UZNF is a London-listed fund that buys Uzbek companies, so a Western investor can own the economy without opening a brokerage account in Tashkent.
Polomny's argument is deliberately boring: he does not need to pick winners or time anything. If an economy compounds at 7–8% a year for twenty years while its stock market is still tiny and ignored, the whole pond gets far bigger and any competently run fishing operation catches more fish. "All they have to do is just keep doing what they're doing."
The risks are the frontier-market ones and he does not dress them up: one leader's reform programme can be reversed, liquidity is thin, and the fund only listed recently, so there is very little track record to judge.
30:37think it was a couple of months ago that you did a video on UZNF, didn't you, and I think that's got huge potential. It's up I think about 20% so far since it IPOed. — So — yeah, it trades in London. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. — Yeah. So I think one other that I've got that I included in my sort of picks for 2026 was ASA International.
In short: No stance change — instead he points holders at an IMF technical paper, "State-Owned Enterprises in Uzbekistan: Issues and Reform Options," on the challenges and opportunities of SOE privatization: "Could be useful for those invested in the Uzbek fund." (SOE privatization is the mechanism the fund's re-rating case rests on.)
No new view this month — instead he passes holders an IMF technical paper on Uzbekistan's state-owned enterprises and the case for privatizing them. That's relevant rather than incidental: this fund's upside case largely depends on state assets being sold into a public market, so the mechanics and obstacles of that privatization are the thesis itself. "Could be useful for those invested in the Uzbek fund."
In short: Holding; no major news this month (AIA Portfolio).
In short: His frontier-value pick: the London-listed "Uzbekistan national fund" — "the ice is breaking with its recent issuance." Scott Schaefer's (AFC) "fertile crescent" view (Turkey→Iran→Central Asia); Uzbekistan the central hub of the "stans," young, under-indebted, compounding 6–7%/yr (positive growth even through COVID), now partially privatizing state enterprises (the Franklin Templeton/Romania playbook of 20 years ago) to put "sunlight on the situation."
This is his "frontier value" bet — buying a whole country early. Uzbekistan was a closed, ignored economy a decade ago, but it's young, not buried in debt, and growing ~6–7% a year (it even grew through COVID). The problem has always been getting money in. Now the government is doing what Romania did 20 years ago (with Franklin Templeton's help): floating a London-listed national fund and partially privatizing state-owned companies — which forces transparency ("sunlight"). UZNF is the easy, liquid way for an outside investor to own that growth before the rest of the market notices; he frames it as "the ice breaking."
29:18What are the other surprises, Jack-in-the-boxes, that are going to pop out on us even if we do try to restore things? This has the opportunity to be a really really big mess for a lot of people. I'll stop there. — Sure. John, you discussed investment opportunities in Uzbekistan. What characteristics do you look for when evaluating frontier markets, and my second part of the question — are there any other overlooked countries today that remind you of where Uzbekistan was, I don't know, a few years ago?
In short: New AIA Portfolio addition — Uzbekistan has grown 6–7% a year for years and is becoming the hub of the emerging Central-Asia "Silk Road"; rising liquidity could let the capital markets catch up with the economy.
A London-listed fund holding Uzbek companies — essentially the only easy way for outsiders to buy a slice of Uzbekistan. The country has compounded 6–7% growth for years and sits at the center of the re-emerging Central-Asian "Silk Road" trade routes, but its stock market is tiny and ignored. Polomny's bet is that as money starts flowing in, the market catches up to the economy. Frontier-market risk applies: thin trading, currency risk, and governance you have to take on faith.
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.