In short: Owned — the one cannabis name he holds on fundamentals. "Right now they have net cash. They're actually making money. It's between 25 and 30 cents next year of earnings. This is US. Stock is around $3" — i.e. "10 times earnings now and growing their earnings." The operating case: "they just made a big expansion in production in BC. They're the lowest cost producer in Canada… because they just finished their increase in production, they're going to start producing more. They will be able to regain their market share in Canada and continue to grow in Europe." Europe is the growth leg — "Germany is an exploding market for cannabis and they only import their raw materials… So Canadian producers actually are big big sellers in the German market." Optionality on top: US rescheduling talk, and takeover appeal — "in my view Village Farms is probably the best candidate to be taken over because they also have US assets, they have Canadian assets and… European assets." Upside framed on the multiple: "if the sector became a little popular, if the news flow was pretty good, it could easily be at 15 to 20 times earnings… so it could be a double."
Cannabis has been, as the host puts it, a heartbreaker of a sector. Tardif's route into it is the least exciting possible one: the company that already makes money. Village Farms has net cash rather than debt, is profitable, and should earn 25-30 US cents next year against a share price around $3 — roughly ten times earnings, which is a normal price for a normal business, not a speculation.
The operating case is cost and geography. It has just completed a production expansion in British Columbia and is the lowest-cost producer in Canada — in a commodity business, being lowest-cost is the durable advantage. That extra output lets it win back Canadian market share, and it also sells into Germany, where the medical cannabis market is expanding rapidly and, importantly, is supplied by imports, which makes Canadian growers the natural beneficiaries.
Then two free options. Democrats are again discussing US federal rescheduling, which he does not count on. And because the company holds US, Canadian and European assets in one structure, he thinks it is "probably the best candidate to be taken over" — with Curaleaf's announced move on Aurora as evidence the sector is consolidating again. His upside is a multiple, not a story: if sentiment improves at all, "it could easily be at 15 to 20 times earnings… so it could be a double."
36:46We own Village Farms, okay? So we own it. — Why'd you buy it? — Well, right now they have net cash. They're actually making money. It's between 25 and 30 cents next year of earnings. This is US. Stock is around $3. They just made a big expansion in production in BC. They're the lowest cost producer in Canada.
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