In short: A live take-private he grades as mostly played out. "There's a cybersecurity company called Varonis Systems… it rallied more than 10% intraday upon a takeout bid from a private equity firm called Thoma Bravo" — per the deck, Thoma Bravo-backed Proofpoint is in advanced talks, with a transaction possibly "announced in the coming weeks." "That spike took shares back to the highs of the year around 46, $47. No deal price was actually mentioned, but the reporting does seem to suggest a deal is likely at this point. At the highest they reached about 48 and then settled on the 4th of September around 46. From the unaffected price of 41, there could be some upside to $50 a share for this bid. The reporting comes 2.5 months after initial reports that VRNS was exploring a strategic sale." The honest mark: "from the lows, this was trading at 20 back in March, but from the time rumors started, this was trading at 30. So there's probably not much upside from here, but there could be a little bit of upside from that 46 price."
Varonis makes software that watches who inside a company is opening which files — a way to catch a breach or an insider leak. It has been looking for a buyer for two and a half months, and last week reports emerged that Proofpoint, a security company owned by the private-equity firm Thoma Bravo, is in advanced talks to acquire it. The shares jumped more than 10% in a day.
The reason Singh is lukewarm is arithmetic rather than doubt about the deal. Before any of this leaked, the stock was $41 — that is the "unaffected" price, the level that tells you what the business is worth without a buyer. It ran to $48 and settled near $46. If a bid arrives at $50, you make roughly four dollars from here. If the talks collapse, you fall back toward $41. That is a poor ratio, and it is a very different trade from the one available in March, when the stock was $20, or even at $30 when the rumours started.
The general lesson he is drawing, and the reason the name still appears on the call: the money in a takeover is made by owning the company while it is merely a candidate, not after the newspapers have named the buyer. "There's probably not much upside from here."
Full passage: premium transcript (PDF).
In short: "Effectively selling itself" — up ~10% after confirming it's weighing a sale on inbound private-equity interest (Blackstone, Thoma Bravo, Vista named in the report). A live arb he's tracking.
Varonis is a cybersecurity company that is "effectively selling itself" — it confirmed it's exploring a sale after private-equity firms (Blackstone, Thoma Bravo, Vista) showed interest, and the stock jumped ~10%. Singh is tracking it as a takeover/arbitrage situation.
Full passage: premium transcript (PDF).
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