| Account | Shares | Price | Value | % of acct | Cost/sh | Gain $ | Gain % | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROTH | 98 | $28.00 | $2,744 | 1.07% | $30.46 | $-241 | -8.1% | — |
In short: Pick of the Week — Walmex, the dominant Mexico/Central-America retailer (32.5% organized-retail share, 2,600+ stores). 2025 margin pressure was a deliberate share-taking choice (beat ANTAD 9 straight periods), not deterioration, so the post-Q4 selloff (−3.9% profit, MS/Barclays downgrades) is overdone. Levers: ~3.9% 2026 SSS, "One Hallway" digital integration (build→harvest), AI-logistics DCs (−15–20% cost), rising private-label mix. Structural tailwinds: nearshoring (FDI $34.3B H1-25, northern wages +15–20%), 18%-CAGR e-commerce ($6B capex vs Amazon), USMCA 83%-domestic-sourcing moat. ~18× fwd / ~1× sales (FEMSA ~22×, WMT ~1.4× sales), 14.5% ROIC, 2.9% dividend, beta 0.18. Consensus MX$66.32 (~20%), bull MX$81 (~46%). A defensive HALO hold; FX/peso + prolonged Hormuz the risks.
Walmex is Walmart's Mexican arm — by far the biggest retailer in Mexico and Central America, with over 2,600 stores (including Bodega Aurrerá and Sam's Club) and about a third of the country's organized retail market. Its profit dipped last year and the stock sold off, but Haymaker argues that's misunderstood: management chose to cut prices to win customers from rivals during a tough economy, sacrificing short-term profit to grab market share — and it worked, beating the industry for nine quarters straight. With most of that spending now done, profit margins should recover in 2026. (US investors can buy it as the WMMVY ADR; it's listed in Mexico as WALMEX*, and prices in the article are in pesos.)
The bigger reason to own it is "nearshoring" — companies relocating factories to Mexico to be near the U.S., which is pouring money and high-paying jobs into exactly the regions where Walmex's stores are concentrated. Add a fast-growing online-shopping market (Walmex is investing $6 billion, matching Amazon) and a supply chain that now buys 83% of its goods locally (shielding it from tariffs), and you have a dominant, defensive business trading unusually cheap — about 1× sales and 18× earnings, with a ~3% dividend and a 14.5% return on capital. It's the kind of steady, "boring" compounder that holds up when markets are jittery (its share price barely moves with the market). The main risks are a falling Mexican peso and a prolonged Middle East oil shock. Analysts see ~20% upside, with a bull case near 46%; Haymaker is a patient buyer.
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