In short: Call of the day — initiated outperform at Wolfe Research, $128 target, roughly 40% upside ("global gaming's luxury brand, trusted and aspirational, positioned at the top of the K-shaped economy"), and the most self-critical segment on the show. Lebenthal owns it and leads with the chart: "what an awful chart. Look at that chart." He gives his own record without prompting: "I did trim it by half about a year ago at 130. My mistake so far has been to buy back in at 106. I do think we'll get to that 128 stock price." His single-variable diagnosis: "their next resort is going to be in the United Arab Emirates right on the Strait of Hormuz… they are still planning to open that next year. One does have to believe that the war with Iran will be over… common sense says this war has to end by the end of the year," and "over the last six months, what has held it back is unquestionably the United Arab Emirates business." Wapner and Terranova both push back on the idiosyncratic story — the chart was breaking down before the war, the K-shaped economy already existed, and "the casinos are just trading awful. Las Vegas Sands looks awful as well." Lebenthal's answer is Las Vegas pricing: bumper years early this decade sent rates through the roof and "the industry has had to reset pricing to get demand back. I think it's coming back."
Wynn runs luxury casino resorts — Las Vegas, Macau, Boston, and a new one being built in the United Arab Emirates. Wolfe Research initiated it at outperform with a $128 target, about 40% above the price, on the argument that in a "K-shaped" economy (where high earners keep spending while everyone else pulls back) the premium end of gaming keeps working.
The segment is worth more than the call because Lebenthal, who owns the stock, argues against his own position first: "what an awful chart," and an unprompted account of his record — trimmed half at $130, bought back at $106, "my mistake so far." His single explanation is the UAE property, which sits on the Strait of Hormuz; with a war under way, the market is refusing to pay for a resort it is not sure will open on schedule.
Wapner and Terranova make the test that any single-cause story has to survive: was the stock already breaking down before that cause existed? It was — the casino group peaked in November, and Las Vegas Sands, which has no Gulf exposure at all, looks just as bad. That points to a sector problem (Las Vegas room pricing having overshot after the post-pandemic boom) rather than a Wynn-specific one. Lebenthal accepts the sector diagnosis and argues the pricing reset is what brings demand back.
In short: Lebenthal's final trade: "Wynn Resorts — good earnings last night." (Wapner: "you're going to win with Wynn.")
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.