| Account | Shares | Price | Value | % of acct | Cost/sh | Gain $ | Gain % | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 401K | 27 | $39.17 | $1,058 | 0.04% | $36.34 | $76 | +7.8% | — |
In short: Owner, and added in Q2 after the stock checked back on AI/prediction-market disruption fears. "A pretty entrenched franchise… TMX will continue to flourish" — erosion of dominance isn't in his base case.
TMX Group owns the Toronto Stock Exchange and Canada's related market infrastructure — it earns fees whenever anyone trades, lists or buys data. Stock exchanges are usually wonderful businesses, and TMX ran hot until it peaked in 2025, when AI and prediction/betting-market worries crept in.
Aitken owns it and added in the second quarter as the price pulled back. He acknowledges you can construct a bear case "if you really stretch it," but calls TMX "a pretty entrenched franchise" that "will continue to flourish." Some erosion at the edges is possible, but it isn't in his base-case numbers.
This is his core method in action: he was selling banks that everyone loves and putting the money into a quality franchise the market had turned cautious on.
28:44I think if you really stretch it, yes, whether it's betting markets, whether it's AI, you can construct a story around more difficult times for TMX. But again, I don't want to be glib about all of these things, but we think that that's a pretty entrenched franchise. I think that TMX will continue to flourish.
In short: Prior pick he still owns & loves despite a "garbage year." Financial infrastructure: matches buyers/sellers (derivatives most profitable) at 40–60% margins with zero balance-sheet risk; volume tracks nominal GDP, so high nominal growth + volatility flow straight through. The recent exchange sell-off (AI-disintermediation fear + the illogical Bitcoin-perps reaction) is an opportunity.
TMX runs Canada's main stock and derivatives exchanges — the same toll-booth model as MIAX. It collects a small fee on every trade (derivatives are the most profitable), carries no balance-sheet risk, and earns 40–60% margins. Trading volume rises with the overall economy and with market volatility, so both growth and turbulence feed its revenue.
He's owned it for years and still loves it despite a "garbage year." The recent slump came from two scares — a fear that AI would make exchange-owned data worthless, and an overreaction to newly-approved Bitcoin futures — both of which he thinks are wrong, making the sell-off a buying opportunity.
55:26— You own X, it's TMX Group. Um you brought a new one, but I want to know at a high level why does um why do stock exchanges or exchanges in general fit with your overall inflation protection, I want to own real world assets thesis. What's so great about the business model and why do you love it? — I view them as financial infrastructure.
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.