In short: "You're going to have YMTC go public shortly" — the NAND half of the state-backed capital raise that lets China reach at least its 20% domestic share "no problem." Not leading edge, "but you don't need that."
29:42And so with China, you had CXMT go public already. You're going to have YMTC go public shortly. All of that will help them raise even more capital. And they have a natural end market for this, too. Because don't forget, China consumes roughly 20% of the world's PCs and 20% of the world's smartphones. And so they can at least get to 20% share, no problem, and have a domestic market for all the chips they produce.
In short: The NAND half of the same threat: "YMTC, which is their NAND company, is going to go public very soon… they plan to be bigger than Samsung or SK Hynix in the NAND business by the end of next year."
YMTC is CXMT's counterpart in NAND — the flash storage in SSDs and phones. It is "going to go public very soon," and its stated ambition is blunt: to be bigger than Samsung or SK Hynix in NAND by the end of next year.
Whether or not it hits that date, the announcement itself is the signal Niles is reacting to. A state-backed entrant declaring a share target above the incumbents is the same behaviour Japan showed in the 1980s and Korea in the 1990s — and on both occasions the incumbents were driven out of the business rather than merely squeezed.
23:04Also, CXMT plans on increasing their wafer starts from 300,000 to 500,000 by the end of next year. And YMTC, which is their NAND manufacturer, is saying they want to be big, or they plan to be bigger than Samsung or SK Hynix in the NAND business by the end of next year. Now the combined market, if you look at CXMT they have about 8% of the global DRAM market which is nothing, but it is ramping incredibly fast.
In short: Referenced — China's NAND champion (with CXMT in DRAM), scaling fast on state backing but well behind at the high end; part of the long-run 2027+ China-supply wildcard rather than a 2026 factor. (Recap, not a stance call.)
In short: Referenced — China's NAND maker (with CXMT) scaling quickly but still behind at the high end; part of the long-run China-supply wildcard rather than a 2026 factor.
Nothing matches this filter.
Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.