Ammar Al-Joundi — Why One of the World's Biggest Gold Miners Is Doubling Down on Canada
"My job is to make you money. My job is not to get bigger." Fresh off the Canada Investment Summit, Agnico Eagle's CEO explains why the jurisdiction premium keeps widening, why the new Ottawa is changing his capital decisions (the US$2.5B Hope Bay go-ahead), what keeps Agnico's all-in sustaining cost $400–500/oz below peers, why he is constructive on gold near and long term, and the new critical-minerals subsidiary he intends to spin out.
One-line take: This is an operator-CEO source talking his own book — Al-Joundi runs Agnico Eagle, so the Positive read on AEM is management's case, not an outside rating (he says so himself: "I'm talking our own book"). The case has four legs. (1) Jurisdiction: 70 years of only going where "you can't move a mine" risk is low, a premium he says has been accelerating since Russia's invasion of Ukraine as other countries "quietly nationalize" assets. (2) Per-share discipline: production up ~14× in 20 years but, the number he cares about, production per share up ~3×; another 20–30% growth into the early-to-mid 2030s, self-funded, while buying back shares, on ~$3B net cash. (3) Structural cost edge: AISC $400–500/oz below peers, from a third-to-half the labour turnover (labour = 40% of cost), more underground mines and hydro/nuclear power (energy = 20%), and supplier priority ("we always got the steel"). (4) Abitibi as "the best place to be in the world for mining, period," with Malartic and Detour set to be two of the world's few million-ounce mines. On gold he is "constructive both near-term and long-term" — a "hard asset bug": the Iran-war dip is the short-run rates reflex (expected inflation → higher rates → sell non-yielding gold), while the long run is the US$41T debt that can only be devalued. He thinks the Bank of Canada will "probably" buy gold again. Canada policy: the new government is a "sea change" (one project / one review / one year, accelerated capital depreciation). A new critical-minerals subsidiary (heard as "Aanir", spelling uncertain) will take in outside investors and then likely be spun out to AEM shareholders; copper (San Nicolás with Teck) stays inside Agnico.
1. Stocks & names mentioned
Stance reflects how each is framed in this interview. Al-Joundi is Agnico Eagle's CEO and sits on CIBC's board, so AEM is his own book and CIBC a board seat — conflicts noted. Research legend: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis. (The ATB Financial / ATB Cormark, Raymond James, Wealthsimple Trade, Hamilton ETFs, EQB / EQ Bank and Haliburton Post House reads are sponsor advertisements, not his picks, and are left out.)
| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What he said | At |
|---|
| AEM | Agnico Eagle Mines | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | His own company, so this is the CEO talking his book. "My job is to make you money. My job is not to get bigger": production per share up ~3× in 20 years; 20–30% more production by the early-to-mid 2030s from projects already being built, self-funded, while buying back shares; ~$3B net cash, no net debt; AISC "about $400 to $500 an ounce below our peers"; Malartic and Detour to be two of the world's few million-ounce mines. Committing US$2.5B to Hope Bay (Nunavut) and "spending more" in Canada. | 40:45 |
| B | Barrick Mining | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | His former employer (the Peter Munk era), used as the contrast case rather than a pick: "Barrick's approach is more the global mining. We're going to go anywhere in the world to build a mine… nothing wrong with that… just a different strategy." The host notes Barrick has "almost completely walked away from Canada." He credits Newmont and Barrick with doing "a pretty good job in Nevada." | 26:45 |
| NEM | Newmont | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Named only as a peer — with Barrick, one of the two that "have done a pretty good job in Nevada," one of his three best mining regions (with Western Australia and the Abitibi). No view on the stock. | 43:42 |
| TECK | Teck Resources | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Referenced only — Agnico's partner in the San Nicolás copper project ("we're building San Nicolás with Teck"), whose copper stays inside Agnico rather than going to the new critical-minerals company; Teck's CEO also sat on the summit's critical-minerals panel. No view on the stock. | 46:39 |
| CCJ | Cameco | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Passing mention — the host's intro: Cameco's CEO sat on the Canada Investment Summit critical-minerals panel with the CEOs of Teck and Agnico. Al-Joundi says nothing about it. | 02:29 |
| CM | Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Referenced only — he sits on CIBC's board (a conflict). Asked about banks financing Canadian resource projects, he says only that "the Canadian banks are there to support Canadians" and "it is going to be tough depending on what's thrown at us." No view on the stock. | 50:04 |
| Kirkland Lake Gold | Kirkland Lake Gold (merged into Agnico Eagle, 2022) | — | Neutral | Historical reference, not a stance — one of Agnico's few big deals: "We merged with Kirkland Lake. They were our brother company, similar strategy, similar region," which brought in Detour, "another million ounce producer." | 42:31 |
| Yamana Gold | Yamana Gold (Canadian assets acquired by Agnico Eagle, 2023) | — | Neutral | Historical reference, not a stance — "We acquired the Canadian assets of Yamana. We knew those assets well," which consolidated Canadian Malartic, "one of the few million ounce producers in the world." | 42:31 |
Stance = how each name is framed in this interview, not a price rating (AEM is his own company). Not given a row: the new critical-minerals subsidiary, heard as "Aanir" (spelling uncertain; 100% Agnico-owned for now, to take in outside investors and then likely be spun out to Agnico shareholders), since it has no confirmed name or listing yet. The macro material feeds the master macro viewpoints: gold & precious metals (constructive near and long term; the rates reflex explains the Iran-war dip), de-dollarization / petro-gold (the Bank of Canada will "probably" buy gold again), US dollar debasement (the US$41T debt, US$500k per taxpaying family, can only be devalued) and copper / critical minerals (trusted supply as the scarce part; Canada as the trusted supplier).
2. Talking points
4:07 The summit: selling trust as well as resources
- He felt "like a proud Canadian" with US$120 trillion of investors in one room, and calls it evidence "that this government that we have is business-oriented and knows how to get things done or at least get things started."
- The host frames the pitch as trust as well as natural resources; he agrees and goes to the jurisdiction question.
5:19 70 years of "you can't move a mine," and a widening premium
- Founder Paul Penna's logic: "if the government does something wrong, you can't move a mine." Safe jurisdictions have been Agnico's "calling card for 70 years," and "we always traded at a premium for that."
- The premium has been accelerating for 5 years, especially since Russia invaded Ukraine (off SWIFT in 24 hours; Berlin "weeks away from being cold"). As gold rose, "some countries raised taxes and effectively started to quietly nationalize assets," and investors paid "an even higher premium" for safe jurisdictions.
9:12 The sea change: a Sunday-morning text from the new minister
- Agnico is Canada's biggest miner and the largest private employer in Nunavut, yet "we could not get anybody from the previous government ever to come up to a mine opening."
- The Sunday after Carney took office, Energy and Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson texted him: "how can I help." Hodgson flew up for the US$2.5B Hope Bay announcement a month ago.
11:22 Hope Bay and National Defence
- Agnico has built four mines in Nunavut in 20 years and is "very good at logistics… construction at minus 50°." The Department of National Defence asked to learn from it. There is an MOU, and soldiers and officers will join Agnico's construction team.
- The Hope Bay site sits on the Northwest Passage: an airstrip, diesel storage, an ~800-person camp and satellite communications, all "in a very strategic spot."
14:49 "One project, one review, one year," clarified
- It is a one-year government review of the application, not one year from idea to build. Agnico still spends "three or four years" on environmental work and files "a plan that is 10,000 pages long." Reviews used to take "three, four, five years."
16:22 Yes, it changes where Agnico spends
- "We are spending more." The US$2.5B Hope Bay decision "would not have happened in the same time frame were it not for this new government."
- Accelerated capital depreciation matters because "foreign investors… take into account trust, but of course they take into account economic return." At today's gold price Agnico will be "one of the top five taxpayers in Canada probably."
18:54 Still at base camp
- "You can't turn an aircraft carrier on a dime." Bureaucracy and negotiation take time, and environmental standards won't be cut: Agnico runs the same standards in Mexico, Australia and Finland as in Ontario or Quebec.
- One year isn't too early to see benefits, because "a lot of what drives investment is trust," and investors now trust the investment climate more.
21:37 The secret sauce: strategy and "culture of the heart"
- The host notes AEM is up ~350% in 5 years, ahead of peers and gold. He credits culture first: former chairman Jim Nasso's "culture of the heart." When two equally able teams compete, the one whose people "like each other, trust each other, communicate" always wins.
- In the Abitibi (70 years, a dozen mines) Agnico has "one-third the turnover rate of our peers" and is the employer of choice.
24:12 Regional, not global
- "We'll go anywhere in the world to build a mine, but we'll only go to regions that have the geologic potential for multiple mines over multiple decades and have the political stability" for the same. Staying put means "we know every junior company… all the suppliers… all the contractors."
25:56 Barrick: a different strategy, not a worse one
- He speaks warmly of Barrick and Peter Munk. Barrick's approach is global ("anywhere in the world to build a mine"), "just a different strategy than we have." The host notes Barrick has nearly left Canada.
27:40 What 30 years of cycles taught him
- "It's liquidity that kills you, not the underlying business." So Agnico has no net debt and "about $3 billion of net cash."
- Stage big projects: "stage it, get your money back, spend more, get your money back." It may cost a bit more, but "you've reduced the risk materially."
- In COVID the risk wasn't the price of steel but getting it at all, and "we always got the steel" as the best customer for 70 years. "You should run a cyclical business different than running a utility."
30:11 Why gold fell on the Iran war
- "In the long run, uncontrolled inflation is very constructive for gold. In the short run it isn't," because expected inflation means higher rates, and at "five or 6% on my dollars, I'm going to shift from gold back into dollars."
- "I am constructive on gold, both near-term and long-term… I don't consider myself a gold bug as much as I do a hard asset bug."
32:12 The US$41T debt has one way out
- US$41T is "about $360,000 of obligation for every taxpayer… almost $500,000 for every taxpaying family." Governments can't raise taxes or cut spending that much, and default "is destructive of society," so "you devalue the obligation."
- "In that environment, hard assets go up. And gold is a currency. Whether governments like it or not."
33:56 The Bank of Canada will "probably" buy gold again
- "It would be foolish to have 100% of those reserves in just US dollars." With the 100-year auto deal "thrown out the window," gold appeals because it is fungible and "not easily restricted by one guy."
35:30 Costs: labour 40%, energy 20%, AISC $400–500 below peers
- Labour: a third to half the peer turnover rate, and turnover is labour's most expensive cost.
- Energy: more underground mines, which use less energy than open pits, and hydro/nuclear power in Quebec, Ontario and Finland, where peers burn gas or diesel.
- Supply: costs are controlled by running trucks at 90% and mills at 95% utilization, and "when you don't get even one of the things you need, everything shuts down."
39:59 Per share, not bigger
- Absolute production is up ~14× in 20 years ("you don't care about that"); production per share is up 3×. "Anybody can issue more shares and get bigger. What's hard is to not issue shares and get bigger."
- Guidance: +20–30% production by the early-to-mid 2030s from projects under construction, self-funded, "and at these levels, we're actually buying back shares at the same time."
41:57 M&A only where it levers existing strengths
- "It's hard to [make money per share] with acquisitions." The few deals built on what Agnico already knew: Yamana's Canadian assets (Malartic) and the Kirkland Lake merger (Detour). Those two will be among the world's few million-ounce-a-year mines.
43:42 The three best regions, and the Abitibi on top
- Nevada (Newmont and Barrick), Western Australia and the Abitibi. "Don't everybody think we're going to go buy something in Australia."
- "Abitibi is the best place to be in the world for mining, period." Malartic plus Detour have added ~40 Moz. The limit now is people, not ore bodies.
46:39 Critical minerals and a planned spinout
- Copper (San Nicolás with Teck) stays inside Agnico. "Pretty much everything else will go into this new company that we've started called Aanir" (spelling uncertain). It is 100% owned now, will take in outside investors, then "likely… distribute it to our… shareholders. Nothing fancy."
- Why: without these metals "your weapons systems shut down, your electricity transmission… shuts down." China's rare-earth response to US tariffs showed that supply you can trust is scarce. "I'm talking our own book… but Canada has the metals… and we certainly have the trust."
50:04 CIBC and the banks
- Speaking briefly as a CIBC director: "the Canadian banks are there to support Canadians," though "it is going to be tough depending on what's thrown at us."
3. In plain English
AEM — Agnico Eagle Mines Positive
Agnico Eagle digs gold out of the ground, mostly in Canada (the Abitibi region of Quebec and Ontario, and Nunavut), with smaller operations in Finland, Mexico and Australia. It is the world's second-largest gold producer. Keep in mind that the person making the case here is its CEO.
His argument has three parts. First, the company only works in places where the rules are unlikely to change after it has sunk billions into a mine, and he says investors are paying more for that safety every year. Second, it grows per share: it has tripled the gold produced per share in 20 years instead of just issuing new stock to get bigger, and it plans 20–30% more output into the 2030s, paid for from its own cash flow while it buys back stock. Third, it is cheap to run. Its "all-in sustaining cost," roughly what it costs to produce an ounce and keep the mines going, is $400–500 below its rivals', because workers stay (so less money goes on rehiring and retraining), more of its mines are underground and use less energy, and its power comes from hydro and nuclear rather than diesel.
With about $3 billion of net cash, a falling gold price would squeeze profit but not threaten the company. A spinout of a new critical-minerals company to shareholders is also coming. The obvious risk is gold itself: a miner's profits swing much more than the gold price does, in both directions.
B — Barrick Mining Neutral
Barrick, where Al-Joundi used to work, is the other giant gold miner, and he uses it to explain Agnico by contrast. Barrick goes "anywhere in the world to build a mine." Agnico sticks to a few stable regions it knows deeply. He is careful to call this a different strategy, not a worse one, and credits Barrick (with Newmont) for its work in Nevada. The host adds that Barrick has almost completely left Canada. This is not a call on Barrick's stock.
Summary & timestamps derived from the public YouTube video (transcript in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © In the Money with Amber Kanwar & Ammar Al-Joundi / Agnico Eagle Mines for source material.