Contrarian Codex — Adding to LODE at $2.91
"Today's price action is frankly ridiculous … there is nothing fundamental that warrants this" — averaging down an already very overweight Comstock position into a one-day washout, plus a small, explicitly speculative call-option leg.
One-line take: A same-day reaction note, not a research piece. Comstock (LODE) sold off hard intraday; Mart says he and "other very smart and deeply invested analysts" could find nothing fundamental behind the move, so he added at $2.91 to a position he already calls "very overweight." He is unusually explicit about the downside — this is a first-of-a-kind facility, "things can (and likely will) go wrong," and "if they don't deliver this is going a whole lot lower" even though SSOF on paper is worth 1.5–3x the whole current market cap — and he tells subscribers twice to size to their own risk tolerance. Twelve minutes later he posts a deliberately separate message flagging a second, far riskier leg: Dec-18-2026 $5 calls bought at $0.20 as "a bet on the direction of the company being up again in the second half of the year," with a do-not-use-money-you-can't-lose warning. A full write-up is promised for the following day.
1. Stocks & names mentioned
| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What he said | At |
|---|
| LODE | Comstock | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | Adding at $2.91 to an already "very overweight" position — the day's move is "frankly ridiculous" with "nothing fundamental that warrants this," and SSOF alone is worth 1.5–3x the current market cap on paper; he also layered in Dec-18-26 $5 calls at $0.20 as a "very speculative" bet on a higher second half. Risk stated plainly: first-of-a-kind facility, "if they don't deliver this is going a whole lot lower." | read ↗ |
2. Talking points
The price action, checked against the facts
- The trigger is the tape, not news: "Today's price action is frankly ridiculous and from what I have been able to find, together with other very smart and deeply invested analysts, there is nothing fundamental that warrants this."
- Note the method in that sentence — before adding he searched for a fundamental cause and cross-checked with other analysts who are themselves deeply invested in the name. Only after that search came up empty did he treat the move as noise.
The risks are stated before the thesis, not after
- "Are there still risks? Absolutely, if they don't deliver this is going a whole lot lower even with SSOF (on paper) being worth 1.5-3x the current market cap." The paper value of the Silver Springs facility is explicitly not treated as a floor.
- "It's a first of a kind facility, things can (and likely will) go wrong" — execution risk is assumed as the base case, not the bear case.
Adding to an already-overweight position
- "I still have strong faith in the value proposition of this company and that has not changed. Therefore, I am adding to what is already a very overweight position for me." This is the strongest form of the conviction signal — a position that is already oversized getting more, rather than a fresh starter.
- He immediately caps it with a sizing warning: "I cannot stress this enough, there are still risks and please carefully consider position sizing relative to your risk tolerance and portfolio strategy." The follow-through he owes subscribers — his written thoughts — is promised for the next day.
The separate, speculative leg — Dec-18-26 $5 calls at $0.20
- He deliberately splits it into its own message: "Seperate message because this is very speculative and do not invest with money you are not absolutely fine with potentially going to 0."
- "I also layered in some Dec18'26 $5 call option at $0.20 a piece as a bet on the direction of the company being up again in the second half of the year. Again, very speculative." Twenty cents of premium per share for the right to buy at $5 by 18 December 2026 — a directional bet on the second half, structurally separate from the equity add.
Tone — owning the drawdown
- "Again I am sorry about the price action and the portfolio pain this is causing today, I hope this message and tomorrow's update help." The note doubles as drawdown communication to a subscriber base sitting in the same position.
3. In plain English
LODE — Comstock Positive
Comstock is a US company whose main business is recycling end-of-life solar panels — pulling the silver, silicon, aluminium and glass back out of panels that would otherwise be landfilled — with its first commercial plant, "SSOF," being built at Silver Springs, Nevada. The whole investment case rests on that one plant working: it is a first-of-a-kind facility, meaning nobody has run this exact process at this scale before, so there is no track record to point at when something goes wrong.
On this day the shares fell hard with no company news attached. Mart looked for a reason — and had other analysts who own the stock look too — found nothing fundamental, and concluded the move was the market, not the business. So he bought more at $2.91, on top of a position he already describes as "very overweight." His anchor for value is that the Silver Springs facility on paper is worth roughly 1.5 to 3 times what the entire company is currently priced at — but he is careful to say that is a paper number, not a floor: "if they don't deliver this is going a whole lot lower."
Separately, and flagged as a different animal entirely, he bought call options — Dec-18-2026 $5 calls at $0.20 each. In plain words: he paid 20 cents per share for the right (not the obligation) to buy the stock at $5 any time up to 18 December 2026. If Comstock is well above $5 by then, that 20 cents is worth many multiples of itself; if the stock is anywhere below $5 on that date, the option simply expires and the entire 20 cents is gone. It is a small-premium, high-leverage side bet on the second half of the year — his words: "very speculative … do not invest with money you are not absolutely fine with potentially going to 0" — and it should be read as an add-on to the equity position, not as the position itself.
Analysis distilled from two Contrarian Codex Discord messages (linked above). For personal study — not investment advice. Source material © Contrarian Codex / "Mart".