| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What he said | At |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWZ | iShares MSCI Brazil ETF | QT · SA · STK | Positive | The core long and easiest U.S.-investor route into Brazil ("the iShares ETF"): Brazil "deeply undervalued" — Bovespa P/E ~8 (CAPE below 8, among the world's cheapest), ~9% dividend yield (higher than its P/E, "an exceedingly rare occurrence"), Real ~40% below parity on REER, and a de-equitizing market (13% of listed companies gone since 2021) shrinking future supply. Popped ~10% to ~25.30 in three weeks so "a pullback is highly likely" — but "a lot more gas left in its tank." "A once in a one- or two-generation opportunity." | read |
| ARGT | Global X MSCI Argentina ETF | QT · SA · STK | Positive | A "second chance opportunity" and an admitted Haymaker "error of omission." Milei's reforms vanquished hyperinflation (200%+ in 2023 → ~40% and falling), and the economy is back to positive growth; "the Argentinian ETF" broke out above 3-year resistance (~40) in early 2023, well before Milei's November win — "a resoundingly accurate bullish signal." Now positioning for it. | read |
| PBR | Petrobras | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | One of Brazil's two natural-resource behemoths (with Vale), trading at 4–5× earnings — excluded from the already-cheap Bovespa multiple. David admits "a soft spot for the former" — Petrobras was "an extremely lucrative holding for clients, and personally, a few years back." Deep-value resource cheapness. | read |
| FNV | Franco-Nevada | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | Gold royalty/streamer flagged after a Rick Rule podcast (Dec-9 MHM): Rule's fondness for its "capital-lite business model" and the fact it had "corrected hard" on adverse Panama news. Regardless of how Panama plays out, "it's had a more than respectable rally." A standout among the "nearly always despised" gold miners. | read |
| NGD | New Gold | QT · SA · STK | Positive | Gold miner highlighted in the Dec-2 MHM alongside Wesdome; has "recovered a much more modest amount" than Wesdome, from $2.70 to $2.82. Part of the rebounding, long-hated gold-miner basket. | read |
| WDOFF | Wesdome Gold Mines | QT · SA · STK | Positive | Fred Hickey's gold pick (Dec-2 MHM): Q4 production 49,567 oz, +37% YoY as Kiena ramps; modeled Q4 revenue ~$130M (+77% YoY) and EPS ~$0.26 (US); analysts raised 2025E to $1.02, so the stock ($9.90 US) trades at "less than 10 times the earnings estimate" — Hickey calls it "a ridiculous discount." But up ~25% from early December, so "be judicious with any new purchases." | read |
| VALE | Vale | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Named with Petrobras as one of Brazil's two natural-resource behemoths trading at 4–5× earnings — cited (via PauloMacro) as cheap and excluded from the Bovespa multiple, but a peer-set mention rather than a singled-out endorsement. | read |
| NEM | Newmont | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | "A chicken way to play a continuing miner rally" via a tarnished blue-chip. Fred & David expect a stronger Q4 after "a bitterly disappointing Q3" (bottomed ~$37, now ~$43). But "a serial disappointer" with expectations "extremely low... for good reason," and a Wall Street analyst already anticipating "another stinker." Net cautious/speculative. | read |
| NVDA | NVIDIA | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | The face of the "Down-&-Out" semis-bear call. Semis ~37× trailing earnings with "increasingly fragile" technicals; the industry's age-old double-, triple- and quadruple-ordering curse is set to "come back to haunt the semis." "We doubt NVDA will be immune... it might be the ultimate casualty of any demand hiccup," with DeepSeek a possible "convulsion." | read |
Prose-only (no ticker created): the semiconductor sector (no ETF named), gold & silver bullion, senior/junior gold-miner ETFs (described generically; "defer accumulation"), metallurgical coal, the Japanese yen, offshore drillers, and the income "Full Lists" categories (mREITs, AAA-CLO ETFs, 10-yr Treasuries, "the largest energy-infrastructure MLP that never cut its distribution," fixed-to-floating preferreds, EM-debt CEFs, C-corp midstream ETFs, oil/gas & oil-futures ETFs), plus the avoid list (Indian small-cap growth, meme stocks, profit-free tech, homebuilders, highest-ever-P/E leaders). Cross-references: PauloMacro (his "Brazil Is Turning a Corner and Nobody Seems to Care" piece), Rick Rule (FNV), Fred Hickey / The High-Tech Strategist (WDOFF, NEM, gold) — people/sources, not rows.
EWZ is a single fund that owns a basket of the largest Brazilian companies, so a U.S. investor can buy "Brazil" in one click without dealing with foreign brokers. Hay's argument is that Brazil is about as cheap as a stock market ever gets: its main index trades at roughly 8 times earnings, it pays a ~9% dividend (you're literally being paid a higher percentage in dividends than the price-to-earnings ratio — almost unheard of), and the Brazilian currency (the Real) is ~40% below its fair value, so you get the stocks and the currency on sale at the same time.
On top of that, Brazil has been shrinking the number of listed companies (13% fewer since 2021), so when money eventually flows back there won't be much stock to buy — which can push prices up fast. Everyone hates Brazil right now (sentiment "as bad as the 2008 financial crisis"), which is exactly the setup contrarians want. The ETF already jumped ~10% in three weeks, so he'd wait for a dip, but calls this "a once in a one- or two-generation opportunity." A long-term buy, not a quick trade.
ARGT is the easy one-fund way to own Argentine stocks. The country was a basket case — inflation over 200% a year — until President Milei slashed spending and deregulated; inflation is now down to ~40% and falling, and the economy has started growing again. Hay openly admits Haymaker missed the move: the Argentine ETF "broke out" (climbed above a multi-year ceiling around 40) back in early 2023, which in chart terms is a powerful "the worst is over" signal, and it came true.
His point is that it's a "second chance" — the turnaround is real and still has room to run, so they're now buying what they should have bought earlier. The lesson he draws: when a long-hated market clears a multi-year resistance level on real reform, take the breakout seriously.
Petrobras is Brazil's giant state-influenced oil company. It trades at just 4–5 times earnings — dirt cheap even by Brazil's cheap standards — and it's so big that it's actually excluded when people quote the Bovespa's already-low valuation, so it's a cheap stock inside a cheap market. Hay has a personal "soft spot" for it: it was "an extremely lucrative holding for clients, and personally" a few years back.
The caveat with Petrobras is always politics — the government can interfere with prices and dividends — but at this valuation he treats it as a classic deep-value resource play on the broader Brazil thesis.
Franco-Nevada is a gold "royalty/streamer" — instead of digging mines itself, it puts up cash up front and then collects a slice of the gold (or the revenue) from mines other companies operate. That's the "capital-lite business model" Hay and Rick Rule praise: low costs, no expensive mine to run, and exposure to a rising gold price without most of the operational risk.
The stock had fallen hard on bad news out of Panama (where one of the mines it has an interest in was caught in a political fight), and Hay's view — echoing a Rick Rule podcast — is that the sell-off was overdone; it has since had "a more than respectable rally." A higher-quality way to own the gold-miner rebound.
New Gold is a smaller gold-mining company that Hay grouped with Wesdome as part of the rebound in long-hated miners. He notes it has bounced only modestly so far — from $2.70 to $2.82 — so it's an earlier-stage recovery name in the basket rather than a standout like Wesdome. The thesis is simply that the whole despised gold-miner group is turning, and this is one of the cheaper, lower-profile ways to ride it.
Wesdome is a Canadian gold miner (it trades in the U.S. under WDOFF). It's the standout in Hay's gold-miner basket because the numbers are genuinely good: gold-veteran Fred Hickey calculates Q4 production was up 37% from a year earlier, revenue up ~77%, and earnings per share around 26 cents — and analysts now expect about $1.02 for 2025. At the stock's price that's "less than 10 times earnings," which Hickey upgraded from "a significant discount" to "a ridiculous discount."
The only caution: it's already run up about 25% since early December, so Hay says "be judicious with any new purchases" — i.e. it's cheap and improving, but don't chase it after a big move.
Vale is Brazil's iron-ore mining giant, named alongside Petrobras as the country's other "natural-resource behemoth" trading at just 4–5 times earnings. Hay (via PauloMacro) cites it to show how cheap Brazil's big resource names are, but he doesn't single it out with a specific buy case the way he does Petrobras — so it reads as a supporting example of the cheap-Brazil theme rather than a standalone pick.
Newmont is the world's biggest gold miner — a blue-chip, but a "tarnished" one. Hay calls owning it "a chicken way to play" a continued miner rally: it's safer and more liquid than the small miners, and both he and Fred Hickey think it could surprise with better Q4 profits after a bad Q3 (the stock bottomed near $37 and is now about $43).
But he's cautious, not enthusiastic: Newmont is "a serial disappointer" that keeps missing, expectations are rock-bottom "for good reason," and a Wall Street analyst is already bracing for "another stinker." So it's a low-conviction, speculative way to get gold-miner exposure — hence Neutral rather than a clear buy.
NVIDIA is the dominant AI-chip company and the market's biggest star, but Hay puts it at the front of his bearish "Down-&-Out" call on semiconductors. His worry isn't NVIDIA's products — it's the chip industry's recurring boom-bust pattern: when chips are scarce, customers panic-order two, three or four times what they actually need, which inflates sales until the moment demand cools and all those phantom orders get cancelled at once.
With semis trading around 37 times earnings and chart action looking "fragile," Hay thinks that curse is due to return, and "we doubt NVDA will be immune... it might be the ultimate casualty of any demand hiccup." He flags DeepSeek (a cheaper AI model that questions how many chips are really needed) as a possible trigger for a sharp "convulsion." A warning, not a price target.
Summary derived from the paid Haymaker newsletter (text in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice; this is a paid post and only the text captured for personal study is summarized here. © Haymaker / David Hay for source material.