David Hay — Haymaker Daily: Taking a Big Knife to the Semis — the real bubble was the KOSPI (more return in 8½ months than in its prior 45 years), its engine Samsung + SK Hynix −40% in five weeks despite ballistic earnings, SOXX in descent and MU −33% despite blow-out earnings; the rare May-6 EWY sell at $151 is vindicated and a probable semi bounce is an exit, not an entry (Jul 29 2026)

A Crocodile Dundee framing of where the actual bubble was: "That's not a bubble. That's a bubble!" Not the S&P — the KOSPI, which by June 18th "had generated more return in the past eight and half months than it had in the prior 45 years of its existence." Its engine was two semiconductor stocks, Samsung and SK Hynix, "despite ballistic earnings, leading to modest P/Es," now −40% in five weeks — the same five weeks in which the SOXX began "a descent… increasingly sickening for its formerly jubilant holders," and Micron (MU), the name the bulls called cheap even at the peak, lost a third of its market cap since June 24th despite blow-out earnings. Haymaker's very rare outright sell on EWY at $151 on May 6th is marked to market (−17%, "there could be much more to come on the downside"), and a probable semi bounce is pre-framed as an exit, not an entry: "History is alpine lake clear that the bigger the bubble, the bigger the bust."

One-line take: A short, entirely bearish Daily on the semiconductor complex, argued from the periphery inward. The setup is a joke at the US market's expense: yes, "certain sectors and stocks can be reasonably characterized" as bubbles — and "some have already been punctured," with SpaceX (SPCX)'s "initial post-IPO rocket launch… crashing down to earth," the shares "cut in half from the late-June peak." But the real bubble was offshore. Citing a chart from "the great mate of Team Haymaker," Grant Williams, and his latest monthly missive KOSPI TURVY: by June 18th the South Korean market "had generated more return in the past eight and half months than it had in the prior 45 years of its existence." Haymaker was long that market for years via EWY — "a longtime favorite of this newsletter" — but "its upside explosion this year led us to put out one of our very rare outright sell recommendations on May 6th when it hit $151. As usual, we were a tad early, but the basic call was spot-on. Since then, EWY has retreated by 17%. Based on its spectacular appreciation, there could be much more to come on the downside." The US-relevant transmission: "the main driver of this KOSPI blow off was its semiconductor sector. In reality, that is made up of essentially two stocks: Samsung and Hynix. Despite ballistic earnings, leading to modest P/Es, this dynamic duo has plunged by 40% over the last five weeks. This is also when the U.S. Semiconductor Index, the SOXX, began its descent, one that is becoming increasingly sickening for its formerly jubilant holders." And the lesson name is Micron: "no slice of the S&P 500/NASDAQ was more adored than the semis were this year. Their fans were quick to point out how cheap stocks like Micron (MU) were even at their peaks. Nonetheless, MU has lost one-third of its market cap since June 24th… despite reporting blow-out earnings." The takeaway is a process rule, not a price target: this "once again demonstrates the prudence of systemically selling into these hockey stick-like moves, irrespective of how exciting the story sounds." Finally, the tactical instruction — "the sell-off in semis has been so intense that a bounce before long is possible, even probable. If so, that will likely be an opportunity to once again reduce exposure for disciplined investors… History is alpine lake clear that the bigger the bubble, the bigger the bust." No Buy List or Trims/Holds entry is changed in this issue; the EWY sell was made on May 6th.

1. Stocks & names mentioned

Ticker	Name	Research	View	What he said	At
EWY	iShares MSCI South Korea ETF	QT · SA · STK	Negative	The rare outright sell, reiterated and pressed. "The U.S.-traded ETF based on this index, EWY, was a longtime favorite of this newsletter. But its upside explosion this year led us to put out one of our very rare outright sell recommendations on May 6th when it hit $151. As usual, we were a tad early, but the basic call was spot-on. Since then, EWY has retreated by 17%. Based on its spectacular appreciation, there could be much more to come on the downside." The underlying index by June 18th "had generated more return in the past eight and half months than it had in the prior 45 years of its existence" (Grant Williams' KOSPI TURVY), and its engine — Samsung + Hynix — is already −40% in five weeks.	read ↗
005930.KS	Samsung Electronics	QT · STK · SA	Negative	One half of the two-stock engine of the KOSPI blow-off, now deflating. "The main driver of this KOSPI blow off was its semiconductor sector. In reality, that is made up of essentially two stocks: Samsung and Hynix. Despite ballistic earnings, leading to modest P/Es, this dynamic duo has plunged by 40% over the last five weeks." The explicit point is that cheapness on trailing/forward earnings did not cushion the bust — the framing is bubble deflation, and the same five weeks mark the start of the SOXX's descent.	read ↗
000660.KS	SK Hynix	QT · STK · SA	Negative	The other half of the "dynamic duo." With Samsung it is the KOSPI's semiconductor sector — and it is down 40% over the last five weeks "despite ballistic earnings, leading to modest P/Es." Read as the transmission channel from the Korean blow-off into the US semis: "this is also when the U.S. Semiconductor Index, the SOXX, began its descent."	read ↗
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	QT · SA · STK · FA	Negative	"Taking a big knife to the semis" — reduce into the bounce. The US Semiconductor Index "began its descent" in the same five weeks Samsung and Hynix fell 40%, "one that is becoming increasingly sickening for its formerly jubilant holders" (illustrated with a five-year price chart). "No slice of the S&P 500/NASDAQ was more adored than the semis were this year." Tactical instruction: "the sell-off in semis has been so intense that a bounce before long is possible, even probable. If so, that will likely be an opportunity to once again reduce exposure for disciplined investors… History is alpine lake clear that the bigger the bubble, the bigger the bust."	read ↗
MU	Micron Technology	QT · SA · STK · FA	Negative	The exhibit for "cheap doesn't save you in a bust." "Their fans were quick to point out how cheap stocks like Micron (MU) were even at their peaks. Nonetheless, MU has lost one-third of its market cap since June 24th… despite reporting blow-out earnings." Haymaker's conclusion is a process rule rather than a price call: this "once again demonstrates the prudence of systemically selling into these hockey stick-like moves, irrespective of how exciting the story sounds."	read ↗
SPCX	SpaceX	QT · SA · STK · FA	Negative	A bubble already punctured. Offered as the proof that parts of the US market genuinely were bubbles and have begun deflating: "SpaceX (SPCX) is a vivid example. Its initial post-IPO rocket launch has come crashing down to earth, with its shares having been cut in half from the late-June peak." No target or re-entry level; it is the opening exhibit for the "bigger the bubble, bigger the bust" thesis.	read ↗

"View" is Haymaker's stance in this post — every named security here is cited on the bearish side of a bubble-deflation argument. Referenced only (no stance taken): the KOSPI itself (an index, tracked in the US via EWY); the S&P 500 / NASDAQ as the "adored semis" backdrop; Grant Williams and his monthly missive Things That Make You Go Hmmm… issue "KOSPI TURVY" (the chart source — the person is excluded from the education list, the newsletter is captured); and Crocodile Dundee / McDonald's PlayPlace, a film framing device, not a company view. The charts render as images and were not captured; the prose carries the entire argument. Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.

2. Talking points

"That's not a knife" — the framing device

The 1986 Crocodile Dundee scene: threatened by a knife-wielding mugger in New York, Dundee laughs and sneers, "That's not a knife," before producing his own.
Haymaker's paraphrase for the market: "That's not a bubble. That's a bubble!" — the US is not where the extreme is.

Yes, there are US bubbles — and some are already punctured

"It's oft-heard today that the U.S. equity market is in a bubble and, for sure, certain sectors and stocks can be reasonably characterized as such, though some have already been punctured."
The example: "SpaceX (SPCX) is a vivid example. Its initial post-IPO rocket launch has come crashing down to earth, with its shares having been cut in half from the late-June peak."

The real bubble — KOSPI, 8½ months vs 45 years

Chart credit to "the great mate of Team Haymaker, Grant Williams," from his latest monthly missive, KOSPI TURVY.
The statistic: "by June 18th of this year, the South Korean stock market, the aforementioned KOSPI, had generated more return in the past eight and half months than it had in the prior 45 years of its existence."

EWY — the very rare outright sell, marked to market

"The U.S.-traded ETF based on this index, EWY, was a longtime favorite of this newsletter."
"But its upside explosion this year led us to put out one of our very rare outright sell recommendations on May 6th when it hit $151. As usual, we were a tad early, but the basic call was spot-on. Since then, EWY has retreated by 17%."
The forward view: "Based on its spectacular appreciation, there could be much more to come on the downside."

The two-stock engine — Samsung and Hynix, −40% in five weeks

"As far as U.S. market relevance goes, the main driver of this KOSPI blow off was its semiconductor sector. In reality, that is made up of essentially two stocks: Samsung and Hynix."
"Despite ballistic earnings, leading to modest P/Es, this dynamic duo has plunged by 40% over the last five weeks." Low multiples on real earnings provided no floor.

The transmission into the SOXX

"This is also when the U.S. Semiconductor Index, the SOXX, began its descent, one that is becoming increasingly sickening for its formerly jubilant holders." (Shown on a five-year price chart.)
The same five-week window ties the Korean bust and the US semis together — a single trade unwinding, not two local stories.

Micron — cheap at the peak, still −33% on blow-out earnings

"It's safe to say that no slice of the S&P 500/NASDAQ was more adored than the semis were this year. Their fans were quick to point out how cheap stocks like Micron (MU) were even at their peaks."
"Nonetheless, MU has lost one-third of its market cap since June 24th… despite reporting blow-out earnings."

The rule it proves — sell systematically into the hockey stick

"This once again demonstrates the prudence of systemically selling into these hockey stick-like moves, irrespective of how exciting the story sounds."
Consistent with the Haymaker default tactic stated in the Jul-27 portfolio update — dollar-cost-averaging out once a price "enters the hockey stick phase."

What to do with the bounce — reduce, don't re-enter

"The sell-off in semis has been so intense that a bounce before long is possible, even probable."
"If so, that will likely be an opportunity to once again reduce exposure for disciplined investors (like those who read this newsletter!)"
Closing line: "History is alpine lake clear that the bigger the bubble, the bigger the bust."

3. In plain English

A jargon-free note on why each name matters. (Companion to the table above; renders on each name's consolidated page.)

EWY — iShares MSCI South Korea ETF Negative

EWY is a fund you can buy on a US exchange that owns a basket of South Korean stocks — in practice it is dominated by two chip makers, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, so it behaves less like "Korea" and more like a leveraged bet on memory chips. Haymaker liked it for years. Then it went vertical: by June 18th the Korean market had made more money for investors in eight and a half months than in the entire 45 years before that. That is not a normal bull market; that is a mania, and the statistic itself is the sell signal.

So on May 6th, with EWY at $151, Haymaker did something it almost never does — issue an outright sell rather than a trim. The fund kept rising for a while afterward ("we were a tad early"), which is what selling into a parabola always looks like, and it has since fallen 17%. Hay's point is that 17% barely dents a move that large: when a market gains more in eight months than in four decades, giving it all back is the historical norm, so "there could be much more to come on the downside." The practical instruction for anyone still holding is to use rallies to get out, not to add.

SOXX — iShares Semiconductor ETF Negative

SOXX is a fund that owns the big US-listed semiconductor companies — the chip designers and manufacturers that were the single most popular thing to own during the AI boom. Hay's argument here is about plumbing: the Korean chip stocks and the American chip stocks are the same trade held by the same kind of investor, so when Samsung and SK Hynix fell 40% in five weeks, SOXX started sliding in exactly the same five weeks. Korea was the leading indicator, not a separate story.

What makes it alarming rather than routine is that the Korean names were falling despite excellent profits and low price-to-earnings ratios. If good earnings and a cheap multiple didn't stop a 40% fall there, then "the semis are cheap" is not a reason to hold them here. He describes the SOXX decline as "increasingly sickening for its formerly jubilant holders" — that is, the people who most enjoyed the ride up are the ones still fully exposed.

His tactical advice is the part worth writing down. After a fall this violent, a sharp bounce is likely — and that bounce, he says, is an exit, not an entry: "an opportunity to once again reduce exposure." The reasoning is that busts unwind in stages, with rallies along the way that tempt people back in, and that the size of the bust is proportional to the size of the bubble that preceded it. "History is alpine lake clear that the bigger the bubble, the bigger the bust."

MU — Micron Technology Negative

Micron makes memory chips — the DRAM and flash storage that goes into phones, PCs and, lately, AI data centres. It was the bulls' favourite rebuttal to bubble talk, because on paper it never looked expensive: even at its highest price it traded at a modest multiple of its earnings, so buying it felt like buying value rather than hype.

Hay uses it to make the opposite point. Since June 24th, Micron has lost a third of its stock-market value — and it did that after reporting blow-out results. In other words, both of the things investors were relying on (a low valuation and great earnings) were present the entire way down and neither one helped. That happens when a stock's price was driven by the flow of money into a theme rather than by its fundamentals: when the flow reverses, the fundamentals are irrelevant to the fall.

The lesson he draws is a rule for next time, not a forecast for Micron: when any position enters its "hockey stick" phase — the near-vertical part of the chart — sell some of it systematically on the way up, "irrespective of how exciting the story sounds." You will feel too cautious while it is still going up, and you will be very glad of it afterward.

Summary derived from the paid Haymaker newsletter (text in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Haymaker / David Hay for source material.