Haymaker Daily Taking a Big Knife to the Semis
Hello, Haymakers:
In the 1986 movie, Crocodile Dundee, the rugged title character is threatened by a knife-wielding mugger on a visit to the Big Apple (nothing more than a McDonald's PlayPlace compared to the Australian Outback, as the film convincingly argues). Unfazed, he laughs heartily and in his deep Aussie accent sneers: "That's not a knife." Continuing…
It's oft-heard today that the U.S. equity market is in a bubble and, for sure, certain sectors and stocks can be reasonably characterized as such, though some have already been punctured. SpaceX (SPCX) is a vivid example. Its initial post-IPO rocket launch has come crashing down to earth, with its shares having been cut in half from the late-June peak.
But Mr. Dundee might be inclined to paraphrase himself as follows: "That's not a bubble. That's a bubble!"
[Chart: TTMYGH… — the KOSPI, courtesy of Grant Williams' monthly missive "KOSPI TURVY."]
The above chart is from the great mate of Team Haymaker, Grant Williams. As he pointed out in his latest monthly missive, KOSPI TURVY, by June 18th of this year, the South Korean stock market, the aforementioned KOSPI, had generated more return in the past eight and half months than it had in the prior 45 years of its existence.
The U.S.-traded ETF based on this index, EWY, was a longtime favorite of this newsletter. But its upside explosion this year led us to put out one of our very rare outright sell recommendations on May 6th when it hit $151. As usual, we were a tad early, but the basic call was spot-on. Since then, EWY has retreated by 17%. Based on its spectacular appreciation, there could be much more to come on the downside.
As far as U.S. market relevance goes, the main driver of this KOSPI blow off was its semiconductor sector. In reality, that is made up of essentially two stocks: Samsung and Hynix. Despite ballistic earnings, leading to modest P/Es, this dynamic duo has plunged by 40% over the last five weeks. This is also when the U.S. Semiconductor Index, the SOXX, began its descent, one that is becoming increasingly sickening for its formerly jubilant holders.
[Chart: SOXX Five-Year Price Chart]
It's safe to say that no slice of the S&P 500/NASDAQ was more adored than the semis were this year. Their fans were quick to point out how cheap stocks like Micron (MU) were even at their peaks. Nonetheless, MU has lost one-third of its market cap since June 24th… despite reporting blow-out earnings. This once again demonstrates the prudence of systemically selling into these hockey stick-like moves, irrespective of how exciting the story sounds.
The sell-off in semis has been so intense that a bounce before long is possible, even probable. If so, that will likely be an opportunity to once again reduce exposure for disciplined investors (like those who read this newsletter!) History is alpine lake clear that the bigger the bubble, the bigger the bust.
The Haymaker Team