David Hay — Record Highs & Counterintuitive Caution (Haymaker, Jun 2026)

One-line take: A short macro caution daily — no stock picks. The sub-surface action looks like prior pre-correction setups (per Jesse Felder): few stocks/sectors at new highs even as the S&P/NASDAQ post records, a rising VIX into the highs, and the NASDAQ-100's "risk appetite" measure plunging as the index notches highs — "a divergence unlike anything we've seen in at least a decade." Bitcoin is being shellacked (nearly halved from its fall peak, –23% in 2026), and crypto tends to lead stocks. Per Jim Reid / Deutsche Bank, the only post-WWII analog to this year's pace — outside post-recession rallies — was 1987 before the meltdown. Crashes are low-probability but more likely when valuations are stretched, speculation rampant, margin debt elevated, and oil has risen — all in place now. Realizing some gains and moving to the sidelines is prudent even amid euphoria. Feeds the master macro viewpoints.

1. Stocks & names mentioned

No individual stock picks in this piece — it's a macro caution daily about market internals and risk. Named only: Bitcoin (cited as a leading risk-sentiment indicator — already covered in the index as a Negative), plus the sources Jesse Felder and Jim Reid / Deutsche Bank. The substance is in the talking points below and the master macro viewpoints.

2. Talking points

The internals look pre-correction (Felder)

Few stocks and sectors are at new highs even as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ post records; the VIX is rising even as new highs are made; and the NASDAQ-100's "risk appetite" measure is plunging into the highs — "a divergence unlike anything we've seen in at least a decade."

Bitcoin is leading — and it's being shellacked

Bitcoin is nearly halved from its fall peak, down 23% in 2026. Crypto has tended to LEAD stocks, being highly sensitive to risk sentiment — so a crypto rout is a warning for equities.

The 1987 analog (Jim Reid / Deutsche Bank)

Since WWII, the only time the S&P rose as much and as fast as this year — outside post-recession rallies — was 1987, before the meltdown.

When crashes get more likely — and what to do

Crashes are low-probability but more likely when valuations are stretched, speculation is rampant, margin debt is elevated, and oil has risen — all in place now.
Realizing some gains and moving to the sidelines is prudent even if it feels overly conservative amid the euphoria.

Summary derived from the paid Haymaker Substack post (text in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Haymaker / David Hay for source material.