Title: Haymaker Daily — Record Highs & Counterintuitive Caution Show: Haymaker (Substack) — Haymaker Daily Guest: David Hay / The Haymaker Team Date: 2026-06-03 (PAID) URL: https://haymaker.substack.com/p/haymaker-daily-972 Length: written post (no timestamps) Note: Summary of the macro Haymaker Daily; key figures preserved. No audio/timestamps.
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(Citing Jesse Felder.) The sub-surface action in US stocks looks like prior pre-correction setups: few stocks and sectors are at new highs even as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ post records; the VIX is rising even as new highs are made; and the NASDAQ-100's "risk appetite" measure is plunging as the index notches highs — "a divergence unlike anything we've seen in at least a decade."
Bitcoin is being shellacked — nearly halved from its fall peak and down 23% in 2026. Crypto has tended to LEAD stocks, being highly sensitive to risk sentiment.
(Citing Jim Reid / Deutsche Bank.) Since WWII, the only time the S&P rose as much and as fast as this year — outside of post-recession rallies — was 1987, before the meltdown. Crashes are low-probability events but are more likely when valuations are stretched, speculation is rampant, margin debt is elevated, and oil has risen — all of which are in place now.
Realizing some gains and moving to the sidelines is prudent even if it feels overly conservative amid the euphoria.