| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What he said | At |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOLSY | Brasil Bolsa Balcão (B3 ADR) | QT · SA | Positive | Pick #1 — Brazil's monopoly exchange operator (owns the main exchange + OTC listings), a "HALO" (Hard Assets/Low Obsolescence) cash machine with network effects/high switching costs; credit to Trader Ferg. Zero net debt, EPS $0.75 (2022) → $0.97 → $1.20E 2026 (~10%/yr, no down years), ~6% dividend yield. At ~14× (forward ~9–11×) vs peers' 20–30×; PT $21.60 at 18×. Two chart breakouts in six months. Risks: Brazil politics/currency, market already up a lot — but falling rates are a tailwind. | read |
| RYAAY | Ryanair Holdings (ADR) | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | Pick #2 — adding the European cut-rate airline (first liked H1 2024) back to the recommended list. Down $73 → $56 on fuel fears, "unfairly": it hedged 70% of fuel through 2027 at $67/bbl and has zero net debt. 15% net margins vs 4% industry; O'Leary's 30-year cost discipline; 300 new fuel-efficient 737 MAXs next year as Boeing turns around. Value cyclicals on P/S — at 2× sales → $70 PT (often hits 3×). "A superior money-maker over the next 12-24 months." | read |
| J | Jacobs Solutions | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | Update — "a head-scratcher": its AI-data-center exposure is being used as a pretext for weakness, but Haymaker sees the build-out merely downshifting, not ending, and "no AI premium" in the price. At ~15× earnings / 1× sales (near its 5-yr bottom); FY26 guidance raised, AI infra pipeline +400% YoY, data-center business +100%. "Net/net, we'd dollar-cost-average into this name." | read |
| CPNG | Coupang | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Update — a "loser" lately: sales +8% but cash flow disappointed; now near longer-term support (13.5–14), which "it would be best to hold." Still fans of its Amazon-like e-commerce / hard-to-replicate logistics; a massive insider purchase earlier this year. Expects strong profits once it stops over-spending on growth. "Sticking with it but not advising buying more." | read |
| NDAQ | Nasdaq, Inc. | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Reference — cited (via Ferg/Horizon Kinetics) as the proof case for the exchange-operator thesis: NDAQ beat the NASDAQ 100 since its July-2002 listing (Haymaker notes the index is presently ahead, "a matter of timing"). Used to support BOLSY, not a fresh call. | read |
| EWZ | iShares MSCI Brazil ETF | QT · SA · STK | Positive | Reference — the previously-endorsed Brazil ETF, "a stellar performer," up 38.03% and 47.01% from the two prior plugs; cited as the backdrop for the new BOLSY pick (which "owns the main exchange for those shares"). | read |
| COPX | Global X Copper Miners ETF | QT · SA · STK | Negative | Update (take gains) — "the fun stuff": ~doubled (~79% in nine months) since the Aug-25-2025 highlight; copper itself broke above $6/lb for the first time. Both "quite extended" though the long-term story stays upbeat. "Cashing in some gains on COPX right now seems to us the wise course of action." | read |
| SII | Sprott, Inc. | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | Update (full exit) — a "monster winner" (Sy Jacobs' idea), $32 (Dec-2023) → $138, a four-bagger in <2½ years. Now "quite spendy" (9× P/S, 29× P/E even after a 14% correction); Sy himself worries about further give-back. "One of our rare suggestions to exit it entirely" (mind the tax bill). | read |
References only (not tickers): Horizon Kinetics & the late Murray Stahl (the exchange-model authority quoted via Trader Ferg); Brazilian 10-yr government bonds in reals (~14% nominal / ~9% real); Spirit Airlines (the leveraged-airline failure); Boeing & the 737 MAX (RYAAY's fleet); Elon Musk (O'Leary's sparring partner). The image-only Buys / Trims-Holds-Sells lists are not text-readable, so portfolio.json is unchanged.
BOLSY is the U.S.-traded version (an ADR) of B3, the company that owns and runs Brazil's stock exchange — and almost all trading in Brazilian shares has to go through it. That makes it a near-monopoly toll booth: it collects a small fee on a huge volume of trades, has very few costs and almost no debt, and competitors essentially can't get in (you can't build a second national exchange overnight). Haymaker and Trader Ferg call these "HALO" businesses — hard assets, low obsolescence — and note that almost every long-established exchange has beaten its home stock market over time. They're even "anti-fragile": when markets panic, trading volume rises, so the business does fine in chaos.
It's also cheap and pays you to wait: ~6% dividend, profits growing about 10% a year with no down years, and it trades at roughly 9–14× earnings versus 20–30× for exchange operators elsewhere — so even a modest re-rating (to 18×) implies a ~$21.60 target. The chart has broken out twice in six months, which this team loves. The catch is Brazil itself — volatile currency, swing-y politics, and a market that's already run up — but falling Brazilian interest rates should keep pushing local stocks higher.
Ryanair is Europe's biggest no-frills, ultra-low-cost airline. Its stock fell from $73 to $56 because investors panicked about higher jet-fuel prices — but Haymaker says that's a mistake, because Ryanair already locked in 70% of its fuel needs through 2027 at a low fixed price ($67/barrel), so the spike barely touches it. It also has more cash than debt, runs at a 15% profit margin (the rest of the airline industry averages 4%), and its famously cost-obsessed CEO has run it for 30 years. On top of that, 300 brand-new fuel-efficient Boeing jets arrive next year, widening its cost advantage while weaker rivals go bust.
For a cyclical business like an airline, Haymaker values it on price-to-sales rather than earnings (profits swing too much year to year). Ryanair regularly trades at 2× sales — and sometimes 3× — so a return to 2× points to about $70, well above today's $56. They expect it to be "a superior money-maker over the next 12–24 months," with the obvious caveat that it's still an airline.
Jacobs is an engineering and consulting firm — a "picks and shovels" provider to big infrastructure and, increasingly, the AI data-center build-out. The stock has been hit because some investors fear the data-center boom is ending; Haymaker thinks it's merely slowing down, not stopping, and points out the price has no "AI premium" baked in at all. It trades around 15× earnings and just 1× sales — near its cheapest in five years — even though management raised guidance, its AI-infrastructure project pipeline is up 400% and its data-center work doubled. Their advice: buy it gradually over time (dollar-cost-average) rather than all at once.
Coupang is South Korea's dominant e-commerce company — think a local Amazon with its own hard-to-copy delivery network. The latest quarter disappointed: sales grew 8% but cash flow came in weak, and the stock has fallen back toward a key support level around $13.50–14. Haymaker still believes in the business (and notes a big insider purchase) and expects strong profits once it eases off heavy spending on growth — but for now it's a "hold what you have, don't add" call, not a fresh buy.
COPX is a basket of copper-mining stocks. Haymaker recommended it in August 2025 and it has roughly doubled (about +79% in nine months) as copper itself broke above $6 a pound for the first time ever. They still like copper long-term, but both the metal and the miners now look "quite extended" (stretched), so the sensible move is to sell some and lock in the gains — a take-profits call, not a change of long-term view.
Sprott is a precious-metals-focused asset manager. It was a huge winner — recommended at $32 in December 2023, now $138, a "four-bagger" in under 2½ years. But it has become expensive (29× earnings, 9× sales) even after a recent dip, and the analyst who originally pitched it (Sy Jacobs) now worries it could give back gains. So Haymaker makes a rare call to sell the entire position and bank the profit rather than hope for new highs — though longtime holders should expect a sizable tax bill. The spirit is the Baruch quote: better to sell a bit too early than too late.
Summary derived from the paid Haymaker newsletter (text in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Haymaker / David Hay for source material.