Title: Haymaker Daily — The Bull Market Almost No One Sees Show: Haymaker (Substack) Author: David Hay / The Haymaker Team Date: 2026-09-03 (SEP 03, 2026) URL: https://haymaker.substack.com/p/haymaker-daily-eb7 Note: Written post — no timestamps; text verbatim from the paid post (captured via Stephen's logged-in session). Two images accompany the post: a Bloomberg terminal chart of the Bloomberg Spot Commodity Index (BCOMSP) since 1998, and a ZeroHedge-relayed FactSet/Jefferies "Exhibit 1 — Ratio of Commodity Prices to the S&P500" chart — both are described below as bracketed placeholders. Disclosures omitted.
Hello, Haymakers:
The Bloomberg Spot Commodity Index clearly had a monumental upside range expansion in early 2022. This breakout was just prior to Russia's ill-fated invasion of Ukraine. That event caused this index to go straight up, albeit in an unsustainable fashion. The feared shortages from that geopolitical shock never fully materialized.
[Chart image — "Bloomberg Spot Commodity Index Since 1998" (Bloomberg terminal, ticker BCOMSP Index, daily line chart 09/03/1998 – 09/03/2026). Last price 739.5644 as of 02-Sep (prev 740.0671). A white horizontal line marks the ~500 level — the 2008 and 2011 highs, i.e. the pre-2022 upside resistance the 2022–23 correction stopped at. A red horizontal line runs from the early-2022 spike high (~740) across to the present, with a pink marker at ~685.8 and a yellow/green moving-average pair beneath price. Shape: a long grind up from ~100 in 1999 to the 2008 peak near 500, a crash to ~250 in 2009, a second ~500 peak in 2011, a long decline into the ~250 low in 2020, the vertical 2022 range expansion to ~740, a correction back to the ~500 shelf into 2023–24, then a fresh advance through 2025 into the 2026 spike back to ~740. Source: Bloomberg.]
Interestingly, the sharp correction from that spike ended right at the prior upside resistance level. This often occurs after significant breakouts and when the price increase becomes excessive. That index, which was already in recovery mode, erupted again early this year. The catalyst, of course, was the joint American/Israeli attack on Iran.
Once again, the price increase became excessive and another correction ensued, though less severe than in 2022. Another rebound has unfolded and one could make the case that there will soon be a double-top around 740 on this index.
The other interpretation is that this is the next stage in the bull market that began at the start of 2022. Given the lengthy list of critical commodities in extremely short supply, and factoring in rising demand, we would argue for the latter interpretation. Palladium is a salient example of this condition, as we described in our August 21st, Pick of the Week.
Despite this increasingly apparent bull market, commodities remain exceedingly undervalued compared to the S&P 500, per the following graphic from ZeroHedge, credited to FactSet and Jefferies. Based on the below, it's highly probable that either stocks need to fall precipitously or commodities need to continue their ascent, or some combination of both.
[Chart image — "Exhibit 1 - Ratio of Commodity Prices to the S&P500": the GSCI Commodity Index divided by the S&P 500 Index, monthly, from circa 1970 through 2026, scaled 0.0 to 10.0. Labelled peaks: "Oil Embargo & High Inflation" (~7.6 in the mid-1970s), "Gulf War" (~9.5, the all-time high, circa 1990), and "2008 Oil Price Spike and GFC" (~8.3). Labelled troughs: "Nifty Fifty Market Bubble" (~1.3, circa 1970), "Tech Bubble" (~1.5, circa 1999) and "Tech Boom" (a small bounce to ~1.0 around 2020–21). The ratio collapses from ~4.3 in 2011 to below 1.0 by 2019 and finishes 2020–2026 pinned near ~0.7 — below the Tech Bubble trough and at the low end of the entire 56-year series. Source: FactSet, Jefferies (relayed by ZeroHedge).]
Haymaker readers who have followed our advice to have considerable hard-asset exposure have been extremely well rewarded over the past few years. We believe that will continue, though we anticipate ongoing volatility. We will try to take advantage of these fluctuations with timely profit-taking suggestions on spikes, and buy-up guidance on weakness, with both the underlying commodities and their producers.
To quote the influential commodity strategist, Jeff Currie, "Scarcity is in the physical world. The illusion of abundance is behind us."
We believe both the scarcity and the illusion aspects will soon manifest themselves. The oil market might be where that reality check is in the process of dramatically manifesting as physical shortages become increasingly difficult to dismiss with social media posts.
The Haymaker Team