Gold is an investment, not a trade: rock-solid $4,000 triple bottom despite strong USD and record real yields; view changes only if central-bank buying stops; holds bullion, not miners, as the dollar-bear hedge.
ROSY ETF (TSX: ROSY) — Rosenberg Research model portfolio, managed by Corton Capital (as heard)
His own TSX-listed fund of ETFs (Rosenberg Research model portfolio since Feb 2023, run by Corton Capital): barbell of cheap Treasuries vs hard assets + EM/Japan, ~70% inversely correlated to USD, up ~60% in 3.5 years.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (proxy: long-duration US Treasuries)
Long-duration Treasuries at 5% on the 10-year = Oct-2023 redux ("block your nose and buy it"): oil is a price shock not durable inflation (wages decelerating), Nov-3 gridlock + Nov-4 refunding tilt to bills, record net spec short = squeeze fuel.
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (proxy: US dollar)
Top-conviction bear: fiscal gridlock, policy mess and pension/government decoupling mark "the start of the sunset of US economic hegemony" — a multi-year dollar bear market.
In one line: The oil shock is a price shock, not durable inflation — nominal wages are decelerating, so a Fed hike squeezes margins and real incomes; buy the 10-year at 5%, own gold as an investment, and position for a long-term US-dollar bear market (as of 2026-SEP-14).
Inflation is oil, not labor. Core CPI has "a two handle"; 45% of CPI components were flat or negative in August (norm ~40%); industry data (Manheim, hotel rates, PPI telecom) put August core "close to being flat." Without accelerating nominal wages there is no second-round channel — the shock is "a tax hike on the private sector."
Warsh is at risk of the ECB's July-2008 mistake. One hike (~90% priced) is not the error; ratifying the market's ~100bp/five hikes would be — "I don't think the economy can withstand it." Growth is 1.5–2%; full employment may be ~3.5% unemployment.
Long Treasuries at 5%: "block your nose and buy it." October 2023 is the analog. Catalysts: Nov-3 midterm gridlock ends the fiscal juice; the Nov-4 refunding is the Treasury's supply lever (tilt to bills); slower AI capex cuts corporate issuance; a near-record net spec short is squeeze fuel. Expects bonds to beat stocks over 1–3 months.
Gold is an investment, not a trade. Bullish since $1,000 (2010); a "rock solid bottom" at $4,000; view changes only if central-bank buying stops. Real yields (~3%, a TIPS-era record) more likely to fall. Holds bullion, not miners.
US dollar: top-conviction bear. "The start of the sunset of the US economic hegemony"; a long-term bear market that a 2028 change of party wouldn't fix.
Positioning = barbell. Cheap Treasuries (2s and 10s) vs hard assets (basic materials, gold, rare earths, pipelines, power infrastructure, aerospace/defense, oil as a geopolitical hedge), with EM/Japan equities and local-currency EM debt; avoids cyclical services (hotels, restaurants, airlines, real-estate services). Admits the barbell loses if the Fed "goes bonkers."
The product
What it is: Rosenberg Research — his independent macro research firm, started "at the age of 60 at the beginning of 2020" after 12 years at Gluskin Sheff, with 1,000 clients at launch and "2,300 now… in 40 countries" (currency, commodity, gold, fixed-income and mostly equity clients). Its research is expressed in the ROSY model portfolio (since Feb 2023), which listed in Toronto in Sep 2026 as the ROSY ETF, with Rosenberg as research provider and David Jarvis's Corton Capital (as heard) as manager. Research is a paid client service; the ETF is open to the general public. As described on 2026-SEP-14.
Offering
What it is
How he runs it
Seen in the index
Rosenberg Research
Global macro research across all four asset classes, "a one-stop shop" for institutional and professional clients.
Contrarian by design — "Dare to be different"; "I don't tell people what to do. I just tell them what I'm doing." Built on cross-checks of official data against industry data.
A fund of ETFs expressing the firm's top-conviction themes; low-to-moderate risk; ~0.4 beta to the S&P, ~0.7 to a 60/40.
"A passive strategy that's been run actively"; "up 60% in the past three and a half years" with Rosenberg as sole unit holder until clients mirrored it.
The listed version of the model portfolio, research-provided by Rosenberg, executed by Jarvis's team (execution, client service, compliance).
Not a trading vehicle: rebalanced as themes get "fully priced," rotating to a "plan B" idea; ~70% inversely correlated to the US dollar; Jarvis asks for a 6–12 month minimum commitment.
A global, research-based vehicle for Canadians. He found a "dearth" of truly diversified global products in Canada ("60/40 is not diversified") and pitches ROSY against home bias — "another 97% of the world out there" and ~45–50% of global equity outside the S&P 500, "where you don't have to take on all that AI concentration risk."
A dollar hedge in one ticker. "If you're bullish on the US dollar… don't be interested in my portfolio"; if you want to hedge a dollar decline, "this is the way to do it."
Macro views made accountable. "I'm putting my money where my mouth is" — the portfolio shows the research "in dollars and cents." Caveat: this is his own product, and he concedes the Treasury and commodity legs lose if the Fed hikes aggressively.
Transcripts
One dated page per appearance — each has its stock table, talking points, and the saved transcript. Newest first.