Edward Sterck · Director of Research, World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) — the industry-funded body that publishes the quarterly Platinum Quarterly supply/demand balance. WPIC does not forecast prices.
WPIC’s 2026 surplus is backward-looking (H1 ETF outflows); H2 back in deficit, above-ground stocks ~3 months of demand, lease rates elevated — a tight market re-rated with gold.
In one line: platinum is structurally tight — WPIC's 2026 "surplus" is a backward-looking artefact of H1 investment outflows, the second half is back in deficit, above-ground stocks cover only ~3 months of demand, and with platinum now trading as a precious metal (≈0.95 correlation to gold) a renewed debasement trade could make inflows self-fulfilling.
Headline surplus, underlying deficit. 2026 forecast swung from a 295koz deficit (May) to a 265koz surplus solely on 600koz of ETF/CME stock outflows in H1 (Fed-hike repricing, stronger dollar); H2 is a 285koz deficit. (2026-SEP-16)
Stocks depleted. 2025 deficit revised to over 1.4Moz on AI PCB glass-fibre demand; above-ground stocks just over 3 months of demand vs the 6-month constrained threshold. Lease rates still elevated; London forward curve drifting back toward backwardation. (insights)
Catalysts. Fed-independence doubts (hawkish Warsh vs Trump pushing cuts) reviving the Q4-2025 debasement trade; ETF inflows since end-June; AI applications (semiconductors, thermocouples, optical-interconnect crystal crucibles, PCBs); green hydrogen as an energy-security play. (2026-SEP-16)
Drags. China jewellery weak after fabricators melted stock in 2025 (ex-China growing as white gold ≈ platinum at retail); recycling +8% from stockpiled catalytic converters, likely normalizing in 2027; mine supply flat. (2026-SEP-16)
Transcripts
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