In short: "A very constructive environment." WPIC now forecasts a 265koz 2026 surplus (vs a 295koz deficit in May), but it is "backwards looking": 600koz of H1 ETF/exchange outflows made H1 a 550koz surplus, and H2 is a 285koz deficit. Above-ground stocks ~3 months of demand vs the 6-month constrained threshold; lease rates still elevated; the London forward curve "seems to be heading back towards backwardation." Any positive investment inflows "could become quite self-fulfilling."
The World Platinum Investment Council (an industry-funded research body) now says 2026 will have slightly more platinum available than used — a "surplus." But that is only because investors sold 600,000 ounces out of funds and exchange warehouses in the first half, when fears of US rate hikes and a stronger dollar hurt all precious metals. From July on, the market is short of metal again.
How tight is it? The metal sitting in vaults worldwide covers only about three months of demand; commodity analysts treat anything under six months as scarce. Two other gauges agree: the fee to borrow platinum (the "lease rate") is still above normal, and futures for later delivery are drifting cheaper than metal today ("backwardation") — both signs people need metal now.
Longer term, demand from AI hardware (chip-making, circuit boards, equipment for fibre-optic parts) and possibly hydrogen could grow, while recycled supply from old car catalytic converters looks set to fade in 2027. And platinum now moves almost in lock-step with gold, so if investors return to gold as a hedge against the dollar, platinum is likely to be carried along.
14:26As we're coming toward the end here, I wonder if there's anything else you would highlight on the platinum side for investors. Any key takeaways or things that we missed from the latest report? I think the key thing really is just that it's a very constructive environment. We've seen that obviously quite large quantities of metal come back into the market through those investment outflows in the first half of the year, 600,000 ounces, and that was only just enough just to kind of take some of the tightness out of the market. So, we saw lease
In short: Market "tighter than [it has] been for some time" on South African production and Russian export concerns, offset by weaker auto demand (cyclical, EVs, ride-sharing; hybrids still use it). "Will follow gold and silver higher, but that's a temporary type of thing… we would expect a lot of investor profit taking." Only for "really sophisticated" investors; everyone else, "focus on gold and silver."
Platinum's supply is concentrated in South Africa and Russia, and worries about both have made the market tight and lifted prices over the past 15 months. The demand side is shakier: its big use is car exhaust systems, and cars face both a possible slowdown and long-term change. Battery EVs don't need it, hybrids do, and more people are giving up owning a car.
He expects platinum to tag along if gold and silver rise, but only briefly, with lots of selling into any spike. CPM likes it for professional, closely watching traders; for ordinary investors the advice is to stick with gold and silver.
30:01We think that platinum and palladium will follow gold and silver higher, but that's a temporary type of thing. That's a short-term type move. And we would expect a lot of investor profit taking in the event of any spikes higher for both of these metals, and frankly, we tell a lot of our investors, if they're really sophisticated, we love platinum and palladium, but if they're not really sophisticated and they're not really sitting on top of the market, we tell them to focus on gold and silver.
In short: Three straight deficit years have depleted above-ground stocks >40%, leaving <5 months of demand cover; any 2026 dips (from ETF profit-taking) are likely blips in the long-term platinum story given underlying industrial/auto demand.
Platinum (used in cars, jewelry and industry) has run short three years in a row, and the stored-up "above-ground" supply has shrunk by more than 40% — under five months' worth left. Even if prices wobble in 2026 as some investors take profits, Prins sees that as a minor dip in a long uptrend because the real-world demand keeps coming.
In short: A market-size/jurisdiction case — limited new supply concentrated in a few nations, so power problems in South Africa or Russia sanctions push prices up with little spare capacity to absorb shocks.
In short: A 700koz 2025 deficit (third straight year); ~70% mined in South Africa where Eskom power instability is cutting output, while US Phase 3 / Euro 7 emissions rules lift PGM demand — sees upside in North/South American PGM miners.
Platinum is mostly an industrial metal — it goes into the catalytic converters that clean car and truck exhaust. The world has run short of it three years running, and about 70% of it comes from South Africa, where chronic power outages keep cutting output. At the same time, new US and European emissions rules force makers to use more platinum-group metals per vehicle. Tighter supply plus rising mandated demand is why Prins likes platinum and, specifically, miners in North and South America (a safer place to source it than South Africa or Russia).
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