24:48 1. The share-structure checklist — who owns the shares, not how many
The repeatable method
- Pull the share count first, before the geology. A junior with 36–38 million shares out behaves completely differently from one with 300 million: the same drill hole moves the small one many times more.
- Check management's ownership, not their incentives. "They don't just own 3% of the outstanding shares and have a bunch of options. They have 20, 30, 40, 50%." Options are a free lottery ticket; bought stock is skin.
- Net the cash against the market cap. Cash sitting in the treasury against a small share count means the drilling is already paid for — no financing overhang, no dilution while you wait.
- Read the register for who else is in and at what price. Like-minded long-horizon holders who "need to make a bigger hit to make a difference in their lives" behave differently from warrant-flippers looking to double from 20 to 40 cents.
- Only then ask whether the rocks are any good.
Here: KNG is the pure expression — ~C$14–15M cash, only ~36–38M shares out, ~C$40–50M cap, no need to raise, 17 drill results still to come (
17:19).
GRL passes the same test at ~C$24M with cash in the bank and no raise pending (
11:54).
Watch for
- Shares outstanding and treasury cash on the first page of any junior deck; insider ownership percentage in the AIF/management circular (and whether it is owned stock or options).
24:27 2. Builders who have sold before — and verify the claim
The repeatable method
- Ask the one question that matters about the team: "have they built and sold a company before?" A junior explorer's product is not a mine, it's a takeout.
- Verify it independently — "you got to really do your due diligence there to make sure it's true." Resumes in this sector are self-reported.
- Follow the individual across companies rather than following the company. When an operator with a real exit behind them shows up somewhere new, that's the lead.
- Prefer people you would work with repeatedly — Phillips' filter is people he would "go on vacation with," which is a proxy for whether they'll deal straight with him when the drilling goes badly.
Here: the track record cited is
BRVO / Alderon /
PMET financed at $20–30M caps ("16 cents… went to $16"). The follow-the-person trades are Blake Steele — Azarga's Dewey Burdock permitted and sold to
EU — now a director of
NSU (
22:43), and Marc Blythe,
BYN's chairman, now running
AUGC (
12:34).
Watch for
- Board and management appointments naming someone who ran a prior successful exit — the appointment press release is often the earliest signal you get.
25:14 3. Smart-money entry points — read when the institution came in, not just that it did
The repeatable method
- When an institution leads a placement, locate its entry relative to yours. A fund coming in later and higher than the early speculators is the informative case — it has paid up deliberately.
- Size the cheque against the company. A ~$25M order into a ~$300M company is not a position, it's a thesis: "they're not investing in this to see if it can go up 100 million."
- Infer the target outcome from the cheque size. Work out what the asset must become for that investor's return to make sense — usually "a billion dollar asset, multi-billion dollar asset" — and treat that as their implied case, then judge whether the geology can carry it.
- Do not treat this as a buy signal on its own — it is confirmation that a well-resourced diligence team looked at the same rocks and stayed.
Here: BlackRock led ~$25M into
GLAD's last financing, well above where Phillips financed it at a ~$30M cap; his implied outcome is the Arizona Sonoran → Hudbay path at ~$1.6B (
9:13). Same pattern in
BRVO.
Watch for
- Private-placement news releases naming a lead order and its size; the placement price versus the last twelve months of trading.
5:19 4. The resource-sector calendar — buy the doldrums, sell into the conferences
The repeatable method
- Anchor the year on two conferences: Beaver Creek in September and PDAC in Toronto in March. The window between them — "September, October, all the way through March" — is typically the better resource market.
- Treat the summer as the accumulation window; "normally the summer doldrums end sometime in August."
- Look for the specific dislocation the calendar creates: companies that have added cash and advanced their projects since March but still trade below their March price. Fundamentals improved, the tape didn't.
- Time company-specific entries ahead of news that is calendared to the conferences — juniors deliberately release results just before Beaver Creek and PDAC.
- Require survivability, not just cheapness: "pick the right companies that can weather the short term, midterm" — i.e. names that don't have to finance into weakness.
Here: he says the doldrums ended in August and stocks and commodities were moving back up until the Warsh-driven down day.
GRL expects "a couple sets" of drill results in early September, just before Beaver Creek (
11:39);
DGC is framed as a speculation "going into the good time of the year, fall, and into PDAC" (
16:07);
KNG has drill holes coming through September and October.
Watch for
- The Beaver Creek (Sept) and PDAC (March) dates; juniors that added cash and drilled since March yet trade below their March price.
3:58 5. The 2008 playbook — a super-cycle can be interrupted, and that's the entry
The repeatable method
- Separate the two questions: is the secular bull intact, and can it be interrupted? Both can be yes. 2003–07 was a genuine resource super-cycle and the financial crisis still cut it in half.
- Model the interruption as a liquidity event, not a demand event. Gold near $1,000 fell to ~$700 while the Nasdaq halved — not because gold's case broke but "because people need liquidity when the air gets let out of the tires."
- Identify where the current air is: "overspending in everything from private equity to AI to government debt." You cannot time the release; you can pre-decide the response.
- Expect juniors to be sold hardest — they are the most liquid thing a retail speculator can sell — so hold names that are already funded and won't have to finance into that tape.
- Plan to buy it: the 2008 analog ends in record highs "at prices a lot of people didn't suspect." The interruption is the entry, not the exit.
Here: recorded on the day Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks took gold down ~$110/oz — which he explicitly refuses to over-read ("it's a daily thing") while holding the structural case (
3:32). Every pick he names is one he says is funded and not raising money.
Watch for
- Equity-index drawdowns coinciding with gold weakness — the tell that metals are being sold for liquidity rather than on their own fundamentals; junior treasuries deep enough to sit through it.
23:44 6. Reading the disclosed-bias interview — his edge and his conflict are the same fact
The repeatable method
- Ask what the speaker's relationship to each name is before weighing anything they say about it. Phillips volunteers it: "I'm biased. I'm a big shareholder. Some of these companies I consult for, I've said."
- Understand the mechanism he describes rather than dismissing it: "when I consult for a company, I need to be a very large shareholder… I want to benefit my shares and see them raise capital." The pay-off is the share price, which aligns him with holders — and gives him a reason to talk the book in public.
- Rank the names by conflict tier and discount accordingly. Consultant plus large shareholder is the most conflicted; passive small shareholding with no fee is the cleanest read.
- Use the interview for the facts a shareholder-insider knows and an outsider doesn't — timing of drill results, treasury position, share count, who led the last financing — and independently verify the interpretation.
- Apply his own sizing rule regardless: juniors are "educated speculating… a small piece of your financial pie that you're trying to get massive outside returns on. It's not the whole pie."
Here: tier one (consultant + large shareholder) —
GLAD,
GRL,
DGC; tier two (shareholder, no fee disclosed) —
KNG,
EMPR,
NSU; cleanest reads —
BYN ("a small shareholder") and
ABRA. Tungsten is the control case: he is bullish and owns
nothing, so there is no book to talk (
21:26).
Watch for
- Whether the disclosure is volunteered or extracted; whether the "facts" offered (cash, share count, permit status, financing lead) are checkable in filings — and whether they check out.
11:54 7. The critical-metals policy tailwind — screen for US ground plus a permitting fast-track
The repeatable method
- Start from the import-dependence gap, not the commodity price. The US produces ~2% of the uranium it consumes while nuclear supplies ~22% of its electricity — a gap that policy has to close.
- Check who currently supplies it. Russia, Kazakhstan, Africa "and Canada… we may be in trouble" — the more the supply chain runs through counterparties that can be disrupted, the harder the policy push.
- Screen for the domestic asset in a jurisdiction that has recently reopened to mining — the window where good ground is cheap because nobody has looked at it for two decades.
- Require a concrete policy marker rather than a narrative one: critical-minerals list membership plus an actual federal permitting designation such as FAST-41.
- Prefer brownfield: ground a major already drilled or nearly mined at far lower metal prices carries known geology and a much shorter path to a decision.
Here: GRL — Wisconsin mining-friendly again after ~20 years, old Rio Tinto ground, copper on the critical list, FAST-41 granted.
NSU — an 11 Mlb New Mexico resource Kerr-McGee was building a mine on in the 1970s (
22:25). Tungsten is the unfilled slot: he's looking at staking ground in Wyoming.
Watch for
- FAST-41 / critical-minerals-list additions naming a project; state-level mining-law changes that reopen a dormant belt; historic Kerr-McGee / Rio Tinto / Freeport ground being restaked.
7:45 8. Buy the district, not the deposit — follow up the holes nobody followed up
The repeatable method
- Look for a belt with historic production where the operator left because of price, not because of geology, and where the leftover pit is treated as the whole story.
- Go through the historic files for holes that were drilled and never followed up. Those are free options: the geology is proven, the follow-up is cheap.
- Insist the ground is drill-tested rather than grassroots — "these aren't just grassroots projects. Both have had drill holes on them before."
- Check for the neighbour effect: mineralised structures on an adjacent discovery that physically continue onto your ground are the highest-confidence targets available.
- Read the news-release run rate as the scoreboard — "if you go back through their news releases, you're going to see they're hitting almost every hole."
Here: GLAD at Whitehorse — old Hudbay pits at Cowley Park plus never-followed-up drilling elsewhere in the belt, now yielding Cub East at over 1% copper.
DGC's Peru project surrounds Highlander's Bonita discovery with the veins continuing onto its ground (
14:50);
KNG's Las Coloradas is a huge past-producing Mexican district.
Watch for
- Historic drill databases and old operator files; "never followed up" language in technical reports; discoveries whose mapped structures run onto a neighbour's claims.
15:47 9. Three good projects in a C$22M shell — the spin-out fix
The repeatable method
- Compare the number of genuinely fundable projects against the market cap. A company carrying three drill-ready assets inside a ~C$22M valuation cannot fund or properly promote any of them.
- Treat that mismatch as a catalyst, not a flaw — the resolution is to advance two and "spin out one of them into a separate company to raise money," which creates a second vehicle and re-rates the parent.
- Sequence your expectations by permit dates, since permits gate drilling: value the asset that gets drilled this year differently from the one whose permits arrive next year.
- Accept that this only works when the projects genuinely stand alone — "these are all tremendous projects that need to have some focus on them."
Here: DGC — Cerro Bayo drills this year on Argentine permits; the two Peru projects wait on permits next year; Phillips would like to see one spun out to fund the others (
14:16).
Watch for
- Juniors with more permitted-and-ready projects than treasury; announced spin-outs / plans of arrangement as the re-rate trigger; permit-grant announcements as the real drilling clock.
Methods distilled from the public YouTube video for personal study. Jeff Phillips discloses on tape that he is a paid consultant and/or large shareholder in most of the companies named. Not investment advice.