A macro asset-allocation webcast with no single-company picks. Following the hub's asset-class convention, the allocation calls are tracked as the ETF proxy already used across sources where one exists (GLD, TLT, SPY, RSP, EEM, EMLC, BKLN) — Gundlach named the asset class, not the ETF — and as untickered rows otherwise (short/long TIPS, non-US equities, AI-sector corporate bonds, crude oil). Broad references (the Bloomberg Agg, DXY, the Bloomberg Commodity Index, CBO projections) stay in the talking points.
| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What Gundlach said | At |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | Gold (SPDR Gold Shares — asset-class proxy) | QT · SA · STK | Positive | "I think gold should be part of every portfolio." Looks a lot like commodities — a huge run into Q1 2026, a "pretty monstrous correction" below $4,000, now moving back up; as the dollar weakens, central banks and institutions prefer gold to a fiat currency. | 22:17 |
| Short-term TIPS | Short-maturity Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities | — | Positive | "We like the short-term TIPS" — held in DoubleLine's low-risk funds. Breakevens imply the Fed hits 2% immediately and stays there, which he calls very unlikely, so "TIPS are too cheap on the short end." | 11:21 |
| EMLC | EM local-currency debt (VanEck J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF — asset-class proxy) | QT · SA · STK | Positive | The JPM EM local-currency index vs US corporates tracks the inverted dollar almost exactly: "if the dollar goes down, which I expect to happen, we'd expect EM local currency… to outperform US corporate bonds." Yields ~7% — "pretty good competition" for a stock market at a record CAPE. | 31:37 |
| BKLN | Bank loans / leveraged loans (Invesco Senior Loan ETF — asset-class proxy) | QT · SA · STK | Positive | High-risk fixed income — the bank loan index and EM local currency — yields "about 7%, which seems like pretty good competition" for stocks at the highest Shiller CAPE ever. Leveraged loans were also the best-performing bond sector since the war began (+3.1%) while Treasuries, MBS and IG corporates went negative. | 1:34 |
| EEM | Emerging-market equities (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF — asset-class proxy) | QT · SA · STK | Positive | The S&P's outperformance vs MSCI EM stopped at end-2024 and it has since underperformed by ~20% — "I further believe that this is going to drop going forward." S&P-vs-EM tracks the trade-weighted dollar; if the dollar falls, "it's quite likely the S&P 500 will underperform emerging markets." | 29:55 |
| Non-US equities | Foreign / rest-of-world equities (MSCI World ex-US) | — | Positive | US-vs-ex-US peaked almost two years ago and "on a trend basis is headed lower," so it makes sense on a longer-term view "to think about foreign equities" — MSCI US price/book 5.72 vs 2.49 for the rest of the world. Near term, though: "I had been investing in foreign equities. Right now, I'm going to come close to home because I don't like the way the risk setup is." | 28:22 |
| RSP | Equal-weight S&P 500 (Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF — asset-class proxy) | QT · SA · STK | Neutral | Improving: equal weight has been outperforming cap weight for "about a year, maybe a year and a quarter," echoing the 2020 set-up before a big equal-weight leg — "not terribly convincing that it's the start of a big trend, but it's certainly not underperforming any longer." The AI complex and the rest of the S&P are now negatively correlated (0.5 → 0.14). | 26:42 |
| Crude oil | Crude oil (Brent — commodity) | — | Neutral | Cited as an inflation driver, not a trade: Brent "almost $100," the Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawn from ~750M to 287M barrels (lowest since the 1980s) and global inventories at record lows — a future SPR refill "is going to keep a floor under the price of oil and keep inflation stickier." | 17:00 |
| SPY | Cap-weighted S&P 500 (index proxy) | QT · SA · STK | Negative | Shiller CAPE 42; at that level 10-year forward real returns have never been positive — "negative 5% to 9% per year" — "anything but a ringing endorsement for heavy capitalization weighted equity portfolios. In fact, I recommend none of that." Tech is 38% of the index (above 1999); "about as many bargains… as there are in a hotel minibar." | 23:50 |
| TLT | Long-term Treasuries (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF — asset-class proxy) | QT · SA · STK · FA | Negative | The 30-year went from 27bp in 2020 to 5.24% — still a 50%+ loss — and "didn't retrace hardly at all"; if it can't rally to correct a ~500bp move, "the next move is going to be a continuation of the upward trend." His 10-year model says the path of least resistance is higher, and a Fed that skips a hike would send long rates up "fairly significantly." | 3:10 |
| Long-term TIPS | 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities | — | Negative | Not a hedge: the 30-year TIPS vs 30-year nominal spread "has been absolutely stable for the past 5 years" — the same rate rise since end-2021. "Do not buy long-term TIPS thinking that it's going to somehow hedge you if you don't like long-term 30-year nominal Treasuries." | 12:13 |
| AI corporate bonds | AI-sector corporate credit (US investment grade & high yield) | — | Negative | "Monumental spread widening": AI-sector IG from ~50 to ~125bp and HY from ~180 to ~325bp while ex-AI spreads are unchanged or near their tights. An avalanche of AI issuance on top of Treasury borrowing — "the market is having a hard time digesting this amount of supply" and is "starting to demand higher compensation"; unclear who's buying (perhaps PE-owned captive insurers). | 9:07 |
A jargon-free summary of the thesis behind each allocation call — what it actually is and why he makes it. (Plain-language companion to the table above; renders on each consolidated page.)
Gundlach's gold call is simple: own some, always. Gold fell sharply after a big run early in 2026 and is climbing again. His reason is the dollar — as it loses value, central banks and big institutions would rather hold gold (which no government can print) than paper money. GLD is just a convenient fund that tracks the gold price; he talked about gold itself, not this fund.
TIPS are government bonds whose value rises with inflation. By comparing their price with ordinary Treasuries you can read what inflation the market expects — and right now that comparison assumes the Fed gets inflation back to 2% almost immediately. Gundlach thinks that's very unlikely (his favourite gauge says ~7%), so short-dated TIPS are underpriced insurance. DoubleLine holds them in its low-risk funds.
These are government bonds of developing countries paid in their own currencies (reais, rand, pesos) rather than dollars. They pay around 7%, and when the US dollar weakens, those currencies gain — so a US investor earns the interest plus a currency boost. His chart shows this debt beating US corporate bonds almost exactly when the dollar falls, and he expects the dollar to keep falling. EMLC is simply a fund that holds this kind of debt.
Bank (or "leveraged") loans are loans to below-investment-grade companies whose interest rate floats with short-term rates, so they don't lose value the way fixed-rate bonds do when rates rise. They yield about 7% now. Gundlach's point is comparative: with stocks at one of their most expensive valuations ever, a ~7% income stream is serious competition — and these loans were the best-performing bond category since the war began.
Since late 2024 the S&P 500 has lagged emerging-market stocks by about 20%, and Gundlach expects that to continue. The driver is again the dollar: his chart shows the US-vs-EM line moving in lockstep with the dollar's value, so a weaker dollar means emerging markets keep winning. They also started from far cheaper valuations than US stocks.
US stocks trade at about 5.7 times their accounting book value; the rest of the world trades at about 2.5. That gap has closed sharply in past corrections, which would mean big US underperformance. US stocks stopped beating foreign stocks about two years ago, and he thinks the trend points lower, so owning foreign stocks makes sense for the long run. The caveat: he says that right now he is pulling back "close to home" because he doesn't like the near-term risk set-up (September and October are often rough months).
The normal S&P 500 gives the biggest companies the biggest weight, so a handful of AI giants dominate it. An equal-weight version puts the same amount in each of the 500 companies. It has beaten the normal index for about a year, and the AI stocks and "everything else" have started moving in opposite directions. Gundlach calls it a change worth watching rather than a proven trend — but clearly better than the concentrated version he refuses to recommend.
The Shiller CAPE compares stock prices with ten years of average earnings to smooth out booms and busts. It's at 42 — near the 1999 bubble peak and far above 1929. Historically, whenever investors bought at that level, the next ten years delivered losses after inflation of roughly 5–9% a year. Add that one sector (tech) is 38% of the index, and Gundlach says he recommends no heavy exposure to the standard, size-weighted index — bargains are as rare as in a hotel minibar.
When interest rates rise, existing long bonds lose value. The 30-year Treasury's yield jumped from 0.27% in 2020 to 5.24%, and holders are still down more than half. Normally such a big move gets partly reversed — this one hasn't, which Gundlach reads as a sign rates keep climbing. His fair-value model and the risk that a timid Fed lets inflation run (pushing long yields up) point the same way: stay away from long government bonds.
A popular idea says: if you fear long-term Treasuries, buy the inflation-protected version instead. Gundlach shows why that doesn't work — over the past five years, 30-year TIPS and ordinary 30-year Treasuries moved almost identically, so both suffered the same rise in rates. Inflation protection doesn't protect you from rising real interest rates. Short-dated TIPS are fine; long-dated ones are not a hedge.
A credit "spread" is the extra interest a company pays over the government to borrow. For most US companies that premium hasn't budged, but for AI and AI-related borrowers it has more than doubled (investment grade 0.5 → 1.25 percentage points; junk 1.8 → 3.25). AI companies are issuing a flood of bonds to fund data centers, on top of heavy Treasury borrowing, and buyers are demanding more to absorb it. Gundlach flags it as a warning sign to watch closely.
Summary & timestamps derived from the public YouTube video (transcript in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © DoubleLine Capital for source material.