Actionable insights — Gundlach Unlocked: The Fed's Next Move

3:10 1. A big move that won't retrace is a continuation signal

1. Measure the size of the last major trend move in a yield (or price) series — here the 30-year from its 2020 low.
2. Watch the consolidation that follows: a healthy trend normally gives back a meaningful fraction. A long sideways period with almost no retracement means the counter-trend side lacks buyers.
3. Treat the failed retrace as evidence the next leg continues the prior trend, and position accordingly (avoid the duration it would hurt).

• A real rally that retraces a sizable share of the move (would negate it); a breakout above the recent range highs (confirms it).

5:28 2. Map each Fed outcome to its long-end consequence before the meeting

1. Read the market-implied odds (Bloomberg WIRP from the short-end curve) and the 2-year-implied fair funds rate (2y minus funds gap).
2. Form your own view of the chair — not the pricing — and assign low/high conviction.
3. Pre-map both outcomes to the long end: if the Fed under-delivers versus what the 2-year demands, long yields rise (inflation credibility lost); if it delivers, the long end holds. Size duration exposure for the worse branch.

• The decision vs WIRP odds; the 10y/30y reaction in the days after; the 2y-minus-funds gap widening or closing.

12:13 3. Test a "hedge" by charting its spread to the thing it hedges

1. Before buying an instrument as protection against another, plot both yields and — crucially — the difference between them.
2. If the spread has been flat for years through the very move you fear, the "hedge" carries the same risk; it only protects against the component that actually varies (here, inflation expectations, not real rates).
3. Split by maturity: where the implied component is mispriced (short-end breakevens pricing 2% immediately), the instrument is attractive; where it isn't, skip it.

• Short-dated breakevens vs realized inflation; any break in the long TIPS–nominal spread.

9:07 4. Split credit spreads by the hot sector to find supply indigestion

1. Chart IG and HY spreads for the market ex the crowded borrowing theme versus the theme only.
2. A widening that is confined to the theme while the rest sits at its tights is issuance pressure, not a macro credit cycle — the market is charging more to absorb supply.
3. Ask who the marginal buyer is (captive insurers, private-credit vehicles); opaque or forced buyers make the eventual repricing worse.

• The theme-vs-ex-theme spread gap; mega-deal issuance calendars; the widening spilling into ex-theme spreads (a broader credit turn).

14:54 5. Average the unadjusted import and export price indices

1. Pull the year-over-year import and export price indices — no seasonal or hedonic adjustment, "just prices."
2. Average the two for a clean read of underlying inflation and compare with PCE/CPI (and whether the 6-month annualized rate is above the 12-month).
3. Cross-check with household-level pressures (electricity prices, oil and SPR/inventory levels) that explain weak sentiment.

• Monthly import/export prints; 6-month vs 12-month PCE; SPR refill announcements (an oil floor).

22:50 6. Translate CAPE into an expected 10-year real return

1. Plot starting Shiller CAPE against the subsequent 10-year real return (1965–2015) and fit the regression line.
2. Read today's CAPE off the x-axis: note the range of outcomes historically observed at that level, not just the fitted point.
3. Compare that expected real return with what bonds/loans now yield; when fixed income pays ~6–7% and equities imply negative real returns, cut cap-weighted equity exposure. Add a concentration check (largest sector weight vs 1999).

• CAPE and top-sector weight; the yield gap between loans/EM debt and expected equity returns.

30:21 7. Overlay relative-performance lines on the dollar to pick the regional tilt

1. Chart S&P vs MSCI EM, and US corporates vs JPM EM local-currency debt, against the (inverted) trade-weighted broad dollar.
2. If the shapes match, the regional bet is really a dollar bet — form the dollar view first (trend since the peak, stability, policy).
3. Anchor with valuation (MSCI US vs ex-US price/book) and temper timing with seasonals (September–October weakness for risk assets).

• A break of the DXY's sub-100 range either way; the relative lines diverging from the dollar; the post-October seasonal window.