The MacroTourist · co-host of The Market Huddle · ex-RBC institutional equity derivatives — a cross-asset macro trader who roams rates, FX, commodities and equities looking for the best risk-reward. Running synthesis of his video appearances, with per-transcript breakdowns and a stock index. Index/sector ETFs usually stand in for his macro trades, not single-stock picks.
Gold replaced bonds as the portfolio hedge asset after Liberation Day broke the dollar/bond/stock correlations — a secular bull, though the rally's speed signals fading confidence in money.
Turned bullish at the Venezuela bearish-rush capitulation — oil can't go much lower without killing US energy, nobody owns the sector, and oil stocks would outperform even in a downturn.
Record small-cap run vs the Nasdaq in January — either a healthy broadening out of the Mag 7 or the final chase into cheap stocks before a rollover; unresolved.
Cautionary tale, not a call: Druckenmiller sold "easily a double ago" thinking it had gone too far, too fast — momentum runs farther than you can imagine.
No new high in ~3 months despite peak bullishness — Kovner's consensus-unconfirmed-by-market tell; Asian-retail AI chasing is the final gasp and repatriating foreign money gets sold out of US tech.
Overowned US equities with everyone all-in (lowest FMS cash ever) while price goes sideways — buy your protection now; fixing the dollar imbalance means a lower stock market.
In one line: Everyone is all in — the lowest institutional cash ever against indexes that have gone sideways for three months — so buy your straw hats in winter: own cheap hedges on US equities, hide in underowned energy, treat gold (not bonds) as the portfolio hedge, and position for a structurally lower dollar, repatriating foreign capital and the most volatile Fed ever under Warsh.
Sentiment maxed, price stalling. BofA FMS institutional cash is the lowest in survey history, risk appetite the highest outside 2022, and AAII actual equity exposure a record — yet QQQ/S&P haven't made a new high in ~3 months. Kovner's tell: a consensus unconfirmed by the market means a lot of people are wrong. Hedge when you can, not when you have to.
Broadening or last gasp? January's record small-cap run vs the Nasdaq (which wrecked the quants) is either a healthy rotation out of the Mag 7 or the end-of-move chase into the last cheap stocks before a rollover — he can't rule out the latter, hence the hedges.
Gold is the new bond. Liberation Day broke the dollar/bond/stock hedge for foreigners; gold replaced bonds as the hedge asset beside risk assets, in its own secular bull. But the rally's speed is itself an unhealthy signal — fading confidence in money. US stocks are overowned as the correlation math forces foreign holders to own less.
Energy is the hiding place. Turned bullish at the Venezuela bearish-rush capitulation: oil can't go much lower without killing US energy (Hamm not funding new wells), nobody owns the sector, and oil stocks would outperform even in a downturn. The wider commodity template — decades of supply underinvestment + China's anti-involution + a stockpiling world + global fiscal spending = a massive resource bid (aluminum, copper).
Huge dollar bear, "just starting." The monstrous capital-account deficit must unwind via a lower dollar; long-dated FX vol is a screaming buy. Shrinking the trade deficit tracks the Nasdaq lower — the dilemma is a lower stock market for a rebalanced economy. Repatriation (Korea's Christmas-Eve tax change, Japan's GPIF) is the first step of financial repression as the whole world starts deficit-spending and competing for capital.
Warsh = a trader at the Fed. Expect aggressive short-run cuts, much less communication, deliberately restored uncertainty (an upward-sloping front end) — and overall the most volatile Fed ever. Contrarian framework pick: MMT (Mosler) as the best description of the monetary plumbing; rates matter less than people think.
Transcripts
One dated page per appearance — each has its talking points and the saved transcript. Newest first.
Kevin Muir appearances discovered via search (Kevin Muir MacroTourist), not yet processed — verify publish dates & channels, newest first. Limited to the last ~2 years. None queued yet.