The perfect monetary hedge in a world where no government can afford austerity: debt and liquidity must keep rising (bill-financed "Treasury QE" is money printing) — buy any pullback on tightening; China must print and loves gold.
Range-bound: rising yields compress P/Es while strong nominal growth lifts earnings; the administration manages liquidity to hold it up, but it's late cycle and risks are mounting.
Long-term US Treasuries (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF — asset-class proxy)
Yields sit ~100bp below what the fastest nominal GDP growth since the mid-1980s implies — upward pressure on long yields despite government suppression (yield volatility control).
In one line: markets run on global liquidity, and in a debt-refinancing world the plumbing (repo, collateral, bond volatility) matters more than the Fed funds rate — the liquidity cycle's growth rate has peaked, yields must rise toward nominal GDP, and governments' bill-financed "Treasury QE" keeps printing money, so gold (and Bitcoin) are the hedge to buy on dips.
Yields rise on strong nominal growth. Fastest NGDP growth since the mid-1980s across the US, Japan and eurozone (China the exception); yields ~100bp below where they should be. The yen carry trade is an exaggerated bogeyman — watch the French OAT–Bund spread. (2026-SEP-09)
Refinancing world, late cycle. Debt rolls every 5–6 years, producing a 5–6-year liquidity cycle whose growth rate has now peaked; weak bonds + strong commodities is the late-cycle signature; stocks range-bound. (insights)
Treasury QE and yield volatility control. Governments fund with short bills that banks buy against new deposits — money printing without the Fed; Bessent's buybacks target volatility, not yield levels. (2026-SEP-09)
Crisis playbook. Debt-to-liquidity, not debt-to-GDP, triggers crises: watch SOFR vs Fed funds and the MOVE index; hold cash in the seizure, then own gold, Bitcoin and risk as central banks re-liquefy. (insights)
Transcripts
One dated page per appearance — each has its stock table, talking points, and the saved transcript. Newest first.