Michael Lebowitz · Partner and portfolio manager at RIA Advisors / Real Investment Advice (with Lance Roberts) — the firm's fixed-income and rates specialist.
US Treasuries (10-yr note; 5–7-yr bonds; the 20-yr bond in RIA's 60/40)
10-yr Treasury near 5% is “a line in the sand” with a market put under it — fundamentals (2.3% trimmed-mean inflation, 1/3-trend growth) say yields are already too high; accumulate patiently, 5–7-yr bonds held to maturity.
In one line: Bond fundamentals set yields in the long run and narratives move them in the short run. In September 2026 every fundamental is back at its pre-Iran-war level while the narratives have pushed the 10-year toward 5%, which he calls "a line in the sand" with a market put under it. He expects secular lower yields toward the real growth rate over the next couple of years, and wants to be paid to wait with patience and confirmation, not to catch the top.
The fundamentals say yields are already too high. Core CPI 2.5%, trimmed-mean PCE 2.3% (Dallas Fed 2.28%) and breakevens 2.4–2.5% all sit where they were before the Iran war. Payrolls are heavily revised and unconfirmed by ADP/JOLTS, growth runs at about a third of trend, real wages are flat, and ex-AI growth is flat to negative.
The narratives are doing the lifting. Oil, deficits, hyperscaler AI debt crowding out, memory-chip prices, BoJ yen intervention, "cocktail-party inflation" (price level mistaken for inflation), a Warsh Fed that gives no guidance, and downgrades. Some truth in each, all debatable, and they will flip lower when the tide turns.
5% on the 10-year is the line in the sand. It matters for the economy, the stock market, "definitely the Treasury and possibly the Fed." Insurers, pensions and endowments are likely to step in before the central planners (Bessent has already enlarged buybacks; Warsh dislikes QE). The market has already tightened 50–75bp through the 3–10-year rates that price consumer and corporate loans.
Warsh is talking tougher than his own data. The Jackson Hole hawkish pivot leaned on item counts ("54% of goods above 3%") while his stated preference, the trimmed mean, reads 2.28%. Hiking into a supply shock risks a policy mistake. His call is no September hike despite two-thirds market odds; if Warsh does hike, he expects cuts in 2027 (agreeing with Darius Dale). The curve keeps flattening either way.
Bonds after a lost decade, stocks at CAPE ~41. Trailing 10-year bond returns are at a historic low (the inverse of the CAPE chart), which has preceded strong forward returns. With a ~5% coupon, investors are paid to wait.
How to act: patiently, with confirmation and a plan. Buy an actual 5–7-year bond and hold it to maturity. That is a "free option": 5% a year at worst, and a gain to rotate into cheaper stocks if yields collapse. Add duration once the trend has turned (4.50% heading to 2.50%) rather than at the peak. Measure success against the plan's required return, not the S&P 500.
The product — RIA Advisors / Real Investment Advice
What it is: the wealth-management firm Lebowitz runs with Lance Roberts, which manages client portfolios (the flagship is a 60/40) on top of detailed financial plans. Viewers of Adam Taggart's Thoughtful Money can be matched with firms including RIA through a free, no-commitment consultation form.
All of the below is grounded in what he says in the appearance archived here (2026-SEP-10).
Offering
What it is
How he runs it
Seen in the archive
Main 60/40 portfolio
The firm's core balanced model. In September 2026: about 10% cash, a 20-year Treasury bond, shorter-term bonds and mortgages.
Starts from an existing bond position and adds only on confirmation: technical signs the trend has turned, narratives shifting, the Fed's path over several meetings, and benign inflation prints. The instrument stays open (3–5-year sectors, corporates, options) depending on the shape of the move.
Scenario-based plans (a car every five years, a daughter's wedding, travel) run in planning software that outputs the probability of meeting goals at a given return, e.g. 98% at 5%. Clients can access the software and run their own scenarios.
The plan comes first and sets the required return, which then drives what to buy. "I would love to say it's Lance and I doing our magic at portfolio management, but it's not. It's financial plans."
A benchmark you can actually hit. The plan swaps "beat the S&P" for a personal required return, so a retiree can lock it in with safe instruments rather than chase equities.
Plain rules for holding bonds. Buy the bond itself, hold to maturity, and treat any price gain as a free option. That makes a volatile bond market bearable for a non-professional.
Discipline over timing. Waiting for confirmation instead of guessing the peak is presented as the core value an adviser adds.
Transcripts
One dated page per appearance — each has its stock table, talking points, and the saved transcript. Newest first.