iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (long Treasuries / T-bonds)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF — long Treasuries are “essentially a put on the S&P 500 with positive carry, no time decay”; tilting to T-bonds at ~5.34% while stocks, gold and copper look stretched.
Grains & agriculture — up for real reasons (a rain-cut corn crop, wheat drought, soybean oil +75%), but “complete crude oil stock puppets”: if crude drops, grains drop too.
Bitcoin — one of his best leading indicators for everything: stalled at resistance and “heading back downward”; below 80k, what led risk assets up leads them back down.
Copper — “an accident waiting to happen”: funds 20–30% of open interest net long, ~70% of exchange stocks in CME/LME warehouses, a record 0.62 correlation with the S&P and ~40% over its 200-week MA.
Gold — a “stock puppet” (100-day S&P correlation ~0.52, 2× S&P volatility, 60% over its 60-month MA) “tilted over to a bear market” in a 3,000–5,000 range; could revisit 3,000.
US natural gas — his energy leading indicator: the January contract at $3.80/MMBtu, lowest since end-2021, “leading the way down, telling you where energy prices are going.”
Crude oil — above $100 it “breaks stuff” (diesel ~$6); the war pump will “come down sharply” into a Western Hemisphere surplus (US + Canada ~8M b/d, Venezuela doubling), 2008-style.
S&P 500 — too expensive to buy: Buffett model highest year-end since 1928, market cap 2.1× total US debt, ~40% over its 200-week average; the stock-market break is the trigger for his deflation call.
In one line: A cross-asset reversion bear — oil above $100 "breaks stuff" and will collapse into a Western Hemisphere supply surplus, the metals and Bitcoin have become "stock puppets" of an expensive S&P 500, and the endgame is a stock-market break that turns war-driven energy inflation into post-inflation deflation; long Treasuries at ~5% are "the place to be."
Oil breaks stuff — then collapses. $100 crude and record ~$6 diesel are breaking the economy; the war pump is "the decision of one man," while US + Canada already run an ~8M b/d surplus and Venezuela is set to double output. "It will come down sharply… not an if" — the 2008 template of $147 to ~$40 (2026-SEP-10).
Stock puppets. Copper (100-day S&P correlation a record ~0.62), gold (~0.52, 2× S&P volatility) and the whole metals complex now move with stocks, so they won't hedge a sell-off. Copper is "an accident waiting to happen" (funds 20–30% of open interest net long); grains are crude-oil puppets.
Gold is a range, not a bull market. 60% over its 60-month average (like 1980 and 2011) and "horrible" value against a ~5% 10-year; "tilted over to a bear market" inside 3,000–5,000, with the better long entry near 3,000.
The stock market is the trigger. Buffett model at its highest year-end since 1928, market cap 2.1× total US debt, S&P and copper both ~40% over their 200-week averages. A contentious midterm in "volatility season" could start the reversion; his deflation thesis is "delayed, extended, and it'll be more extreme."
Own the bond put. TLT / T-bonds at ~5.3% are "a put on the S&P 500 with positive carry, no time decay." He doubts the Fed hikes if stocks fall.
His leading indicators. US natural gas ($3.80 January contract, lowest since end-2021) for energy; Bitcoin (failing below 80k) for risk assets; copper breaking first for the S&P.
Transcripts
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