Paulo Macro — Surge Copper's Berg PFS, copper juniors vs the oil collapse (Jun 2026)

One-line take: On the day "peace on Earth reigns," everything is scrambling higher (precious metals to equities) while oil collapses — and Paulo's copper juniors are "helping take some of the sting out of the oil collapse but are thin gruel as mental capital here continues to drain." The substance: the Berg pre-feasibility study from Surge Copper (SURG) — his second-largest position after Aldebaran (ALDE) — is "solid": after-tax NPV8 of US$3.3bn (IRR 24%, 2.9-yr payback, 28-yr life) at $4.75 Cu / $20 moly / $45 silver, popping to US$6.7bn at spot ($6.45 Cu / $30 moly). The real draw isn't the modest 0.22% copper grade — it's the molybdenum (the 2nd-largest moly mine in Canada after Teck's Highland Valley). The kicker is the valuation: a US$250mn fully-diluted market cap, no debt — ~7% of NAV on the Berg asset alone, with a recent raise clearing any Lassonde-Curve overhang for 18 months. "Of course the market will not care... Stay frosty out there." Odd tell: refiner cracks rallying despite the collapse in oil flat price and spreads.

1. Stocks & names mentioned

Ticker	Name	Research	View	What's said	Source
SURG	Surge Copper	SA · STK	Positive	His 2nd-largest position (after Aldebaran), first written up in early December. The Berg PFS is "solid": after-tax NPV8 US$3.3bn (IRR 24%, payback 2.9yrs, 28-yr life) at $4.75 Cu/$20 moly/$45 Ag → US$6.7bn at spot ($6.45 Cu/$30 moly). Skeptics flag the 0.22% Cu grade, but "the draw here is the moly" (2nd-largest moly mine in Canada after Teck's Highland Valley). Mkt cap ~US$250mn fully diluted, no debt = ~7% of NAV on Berg alone; a recent raise cleared the Lassonde-Curve overhang for 18 months.	note ↗
ALDE	Aldebaran Resources	SA · STK	Positive	Named as his largest position (Surge is "second largest position after Aldebaran") — the anchor of his copper-junior book that's "helping take some of the sting out of the oil collapse."	note ↗
TECK	Teck Resources	QT · SA · STK · FA	Neutral	Cited as the benchmark, not a stance: Teck's Highland Valley is the largest molybdenum mine in Canada — Surge's Berg would be the 2nd-largest, the comp that frames the moly thesis.	note ↗

SURG and ALDE are TSXV-listed juniors (OTC: SRGXF / ADBRF) — no Qualtrim page, so just SA/STK. "View" reflects how each was framed in this note (Positive = a held position; Neutral = a benchmark comp). The "Source" links open the Substack chat note (a written post — no timestamps). Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.

2. Talking points

Peace-day melt-up — and an oil collapse

"Peace on Earth reigns" and the market is "explosive in a scramble across the board from precious metals to equities." His copper juniors are "helping take some of the sting out of the oil collapse but are thin gruel as mental capital here continues to drain (mental capital more valuable even than financial capital)."
"It's hard to imagine a world where math doesn't matter in the coming weeks and months, but here we are." The one odd tell: refiner cracks are rallying again despite the collapse in the oil flat price and spreads.

Surge Copper — the Berg PFS is "solid"

After-tax NPV8 = US$3.3bn, IRR 24%, payback 2.9 years, 28-year mine life — using $4.75/lb copper, $20/lb moly, $45/oz silver.
At spot ($6.45/lb Cu, $30/lb moly) the NPV8 "pops to US$6.7bn."

It's the moly, not the copper grade

Skeptics will push back on the 0.22% copper grade — "but the draw here is the moly": Berg would be the 2nd-largest molybdenum mine in Canada after Teck's Highland Valley.

The valuation gap

Market cap ~US$250mn fully diluted, no debt — i.e. ~7% of NAV on the Berg asset alone. A recent capital raise "removed any Lassonde Curve overhang for the next 18 months."
"Good day to release this too. Of course the market will not care... Stay frosty out there."

3. In plain English

A jargon-free summary of the thesis behind each name — what it actually is and why that view. (Plain-language companion to the table above; renders on each ticker's consolidated page.)

SURG — Surge Copper Positive

Surge Copper is a small Canadian mining company ("junior") developing a copper-and-molybdenum deposit called Berg. A pre-feasibility study (PFS) is an engineering report estimating what a mine would be worth if built. Berg's came back strong: using conservative metal prices, the project's after-tax value (NPV — net present value, today's worth of its future cash, discounted 8%) is about US$3.3 billion, earning back the build cost in under 3 years over a 28-year life. At today's higher metal prices that value roughly doubles to US$6.7 billion.

The copper grade is low (0.22%), which critics dislike, but Paulo's point is that the real prize is the molybdenum — a metal used to harden steel — where Berg would be Canada's second-biggest moly mine after Teck's Highland Valley. The eye-opener is the price tag: the whole company is worth only ~US$250 million with no debt, so the market is paying about 7 cents on the dollar for Berg's estimated value alone. A recent share sale also means it won't need more cash for ~18 months (avoiding the "Lassonde Curve" slump when developers dilute holders). It's his second-biggest position; he expects the market to ignore the good news for now.

ALDE — Aldebaran Resources Positive

Aldebaran is another junior copper developer and Paulo's single largest position (Surge is his second). He mentions it only in passing here — as the anchor of the copper-junior book that's "taking some of the sting out of the oil collapse" — so there's no fresh thesis in this note beyond the fact that it's his top holding.

Key points extracted from the public Substack chat note (in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Paulo Macro for source material.

Paulo Macro — Surge Copper's Berg PFS, and copper juniors cushioning the oil collapse