Insights on the Uranium Market
The trader who does SPUT's buying, in London for WNA week: a spot floor at $85 that the term price builds, a term-volume number that hides India's two giant deals, and a US government that just walked in as a new eight-reactor utility.
One-line take: Jander, who executes most of the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust's physical purchases, describes 2026 as a year of two halves: a "very intense start" in which Sprott raised over half a billion dollars and bought 6M lb in the first two months, then a Middle-East-driven risk-off that emptied the buy side, pulled spot back from triple digits and even saw some physical holders liquidate. What he wants investors to notice is what happened next: through a summer with buyers still on the sidelines, spot found "a very hard floor at 85" and is back near $90 — and he attributes the floor to the term price, at an all-time high of $96–97 on the two price reporters, because below $85 "you can just do a carry trade and a finance deal"; utilities, traders and larger producers all stepped in there, so "when we sit at 90, I see very little downside." The reported 37M lb of year-to-date term volume should be taken "with a pinch of salt": India signed two under-the-radar deals with Kazatomprom and Cameco (just under $2bn each, expected ~18–20M lb), at least the Cameco one not in the count, while big utility contracts can take six months to sign and are often reported late — the term market "feels like it's been pretty active," with four or five tenders live at any time. Price reporters struggle because suppliers push index-related contracts with no base price, carrying floors near $75 and ceilings near $160. The fresh catalyst: a US NNSA tender (out the day before) for 4M lb/yr of US-origin uranium from as early as 2030 for 10 years — a run-rate of eight AP1000s — against ~2M lb produced by all US assets so far this year, so US mines must ramp and "a very significant utility just entered the market." Enrichment is at a record (~$215/SWU spot) and conversion around $60/kg, though the post-Ukraine conversion/enrichment rush has subsided toward U3O8 contracting. Investors in London are still gun-shy (the White House, unhelpful Canada–US rhetoric), but he sees Canadian-origin pounds earning a premium, a small copper-into-uranium rotation over the last couple of weeks, uranium still under-invested, and says Sprott would "love" to raise capital and go back into the market.
1. Stocks & names mentioned
A 14-minute market interview with the physical buyer, so the only position-like stance is the trust he buys for. WMC Energy (his employer, private) is not tabled; the NNSA tender, the unnamed SMR developers, Westinghouse's AP1000 (used only as a unit of demand) and India's buyer are covered in the talking points.
| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What he said | At |
|---|
| SRUUF | Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT — U.UN/U.U: TSX) | SA · STK | Positive | Jander does most of his uranium buying on Sprott's behalf: the trust "raised over half a billion dollars and we bought 6 million pounds in the first 2 months" — "a very intense start of the year" — before the Middle East conflict sent investors risk-off. Now a copper-to-uranium rotation is showing "a little bit of an uptick over the last couple of weeks," uranium "still feels under invested," and "I would love for us to raise some capital and go back into the market." | 00:33 |
| Uranium | Uranium (U3O8 — commodity) | — | Positive | Spot held "a very hard floor at 85" all summer and is back at 90, driven by the term price at an all-time high of 96–97 on the two price reporters: below 85 "you can just do a carry trade and a finance deal," so utilities, traders and larger producers step in — "when we sit at 90, I see very little downside and we're set up for a rather interesting fall." New demand: a US NNSA tender for 4M lb/yr of US-origin pounds from 2030 for 10 years ("a run rate of eight AP1000s") vs ~2M lb US output year-to-date. | 01:32 |
| CCJ | Cameco | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Counterparty to one of India's two "very large transactions kind of under the radar" early this year ("well played India. No one really saw that coming") — just under $2bn, expected ~18–20M lb. "The Cameco one has not been in those volume," which is why the 37M lb year-to-date term figure "feels a little bit misleading." | 03:35 |
| KAP | Kazatomprom (LSE/AIX GDR) | STK | Neutral | The other counterparty to India's pair of under-the-radar term deals (each just under $2bn): "I think the Kazatomprom one might have been in last year's numbers," unlike the Cameco contract — part of why reported term volume understates how active the market has been. | 03:35 |
2. Talking points
00:09 An intense start: Sprott raised $500M+ and bought 6M lb in two months
- Most of Jander's uranium trading "I do on behalf of Sprott." The trust "raised over half a billion dollars and we bought 6 million pounds in the first 2 months" 00:33.
00:55 The Middle East conflict flipped it to risk-off
- Money left the equities; some investors holding physical material liquidated it, so "quite a bit of material" came to market while "all the investors on the buy side disappeared."
- Spot "got into the triple digits early on" and then slowly drifted back down.
01:13 A hard floor at $85 — and why the term price builds it
- With investors still largely sidelined, prices "held up at mid-80s": instead of the usual slow drift down, "a very hard floor at 85," and spot is back to 90.
- The mechanism 01:32: spot is "to a large extent … driven by the term price," at an all-time high of 96 and 97 on the two price reporters. Below 85, "you can just do a carry trade and a finance deal" — buy spot, finance it, and deliver into the higher term price.
- At that level 01:54 "we've seen utilities step in … traders step in and even some of the larger producers have come in and bought." "When we sit at 90, I see very little downside and we're set up for a rather interesting fall."
02:15 Market depth: can you buy 500,000 lb at $90?
- "It all depends on timing." In a morning "you probably would move the price a little bit"; given a couple of days "I'm sure you can find it," with the price perhaps jumping "a dollar or two" 02:33.
- Summer spot volumes weren't huge; people will digest WNA week and reset after it.
02:56 September seasonality
- "Normally September is a very busy month and almost without fail it's been an increase in price" — everyone is back from the summer hiatus, bilateral discussions kick off, traders gauge sentiment in London — "and seen a couple of bullish signs so far."
03:16 37M lb of term volume — take it with a pinch of salt
- Early this year there were "two very large transactions kind of under the radar by the Indians … well played India," with Kazatomprom and Cameco 03:35. The Kazatomprom deal may be in last year's numbers; the Cameco one is not in the 37M lb.
- Size 04:20: "just under two billion dollars each … the expectations is that they're around 18 20 million pounds" (the earlier caption reads "2020 million pounds").
- Last year was even lower at this point and then had "a very strong Q4"; utilities with a lot to buy may hold off reporting until they're comfortable with their position 03:55.
04:43 SMR developers are starting to think about fuel
- Jander spent the week with Sprott talking to investors; his WMC colleagues are talking to utilities, and WMC has spoken to "a few SMR companies" progressing builds or country announcements 05:12: "Hey, have you thought about fuel yet?" — "some of them have, some of them haven't," so demand from that space is likely "fairly soon."
05:28 Reporting lag — the term market is busier than the number
- Contracts may not be reported "until the ink is dried"; significant-size contracts "may take 6 months" to sign, so today's discussions could surface only in Q1 or Q2 05:46.
- Many deals are small, but "at any given time, you have four or five active tenders," with "at least a handful" launching now or in the next month or two 06:07 — "it should be an active term market in the fall."
06:27 The price reporters' problem: index-related contracts with no base price
- Suppliers push "for as much index-related as you can," so there is "no base price … to hang the hat on" and nothing firm for reporters to publish.
- Market-related terms 06:51 can carry "a $160 ceiling" and "a $75 floor" — "up quite a bit from where we were before," but not directly translatable into a base-price number.
- From the reporters 07:18: "there's nothing but a bullish sentiment"; contract terms keep rising, "still some way to go."
07:38 The US NNSA tender: a new eight-reactor utility that must buy American
- Out "yesterday," barely noticed: 4M lb a year "starting as early as 2030 and running for 10 years," US origin only because it's for the NNSA, military purposes 08:01.
- All US assets have produced ~2M lb so far this year, so "there's going to be some mines that needs to ramp up in the US"; 4M lb/yr "is a run rate of eight AP1000s."
- "You basically just have a very significant utility just entered the market" 08:25 — it "hasn't percolated in" and will have to affect equities and uranium prices; pounds must be US-origin 08:45.
08:45 Conversion and enrichment: records, but the rush has passed
- Less liquid, but enrichment is at an all-time high — spot around $215/SWU 09:06 (few spot trades), and the term price "as high as I've ever seen it."
- Conversion sits around $60/kg, versus a price once "four five" and long "parked around 11 12."
- The bulk of the post-Ukraine-invasion rush for conversion and enrichment "has probably subsided" 09:31; now a regular run-rate, "if anything … leaning more towards U3O8 contracting" 09:54.
10:11 Investors gun-shy; Canada–US rhetoric; a premium for Canadian pounds
- Some investors "are on the sidelines still … a bit of a wait-and-see" — "you have no idea what's going to come out of the White House," plus "not-so-helpful rhetoric between Canada and the United States."
- At an IAEA maritime-applications launch in DC 10:28 the two delegations were friendly — "a lot of posturing … on the media level" — but he doubts Americans realize "how close to fed up Canadians are" 11:07.
- "Clearly Canadian origin material will be at a premium … a very good jurisdiction … the West is going to need every pound they can get from Canada" 11:33.
11:56 Oil vs uranium — and a rotation out of copper
- Asked whether oil's 50–60% move is pulling money away, he instead reports a couple of investors admitting "a little bit of a rotation from copper … into uranium."
- "A little bit of an uptick over the last couple of weeks" 12:23; "it still feels like uranium is under invested," and he would "love for us to raise some capital and go back into the market."
12:46 London is turning into "nuclear week"
- The WNA symposium has "11 or 1200 delegates which is the biggest it's ever been," with side events on nuclear maritime applications, investor events and receptions 13:12.
- "It's not just about nuclear fuel anymore" — reactor vendors, engineering companies — "an industry on the march … a very positive vibe" 13:30.
3. In plain English
SRUUF — Sprott Physical Uranium Trust Positive
The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust is a fund that does one thing: it raises money from investors and uses it to buy and store actual uranium. Owning a unit is a way to own pounds of uranium without running a mine. Per Jander is the trader who does most of that buying for the trust, so his account of the year is a first-hand view from inside the vehicle.
Early 2026 was the good half: the trust raised more than half a billion dollars and he bought 6 million pounds in two months. Then the Middle East conflict sent investors running from risk, the trust stopped raising money, and the buying stopped. The trust can only buy when investors hand it new money, so the question for the fall is whether that money comes back. His answer is cautiously hopeful — a few investors have been moving money out of copper and into uranium over the last couple of weeks, uranium still looks under-owned to him, and he says he would "love" for the trust to raise capital and go back into the market. Each new raise means more pounds pulled out of an already thin spot market.
Uranium — the commodity Positive
Uranium sells two ways: "spot" for delivery now, and "term" contracts where a utility locks in years of supply. The term price is at an all-time high of $96–97. Jander's key point is that this high term price puts a floor under spot. If spot falls much below $85, a trader can buy the cheap pounds, borrow to pay for them, store them, and sell them forward into the higher term price — a "carry trade" that locks in a profit. Because that trade is available, utilities, traders and even producers step in and buy whenever spot dips there, which is why spot held $85 through a summer with almost no investor buying. With spot at $90 he sees "very little downside."
Two things could push the price up. First, the term market is busier than it looks: the headline 37 million pounds contracted this year leaves out a huge Indian deal, and big contracts are often reported months late. Second, the US government's nuclear-weapons agency (the NNSA) just asked for 4 million pounds a year of American-mined uranium for ten years starting around 2030 — about what eight large reactors burn — when all US mines together have produced only about 2 million pounds so far this year. US mines will have to grow to meet it, and the market has not priced it yet.
CCJ — Cameco Neutral
Cameco, the big Canadian uranium miner, is mentioned not as a pick but as one side of a very large sale: India quietly signed a long-term supply deal with it early this year, reportedly just under $2 billion. Jander's point is that this contract is not in the widely quoted 37 million pounds of term contracting so far this year, so anyone judging utility demand off that number is undercounting it. He also argues Canadian-mined pounds should earn a premium, since Canada is a safe jurisdiction and the West will need all of its supply.
KAP — Kazatomprom Neutral
Kazatomprom, Kazakhstan's state uranium producer and the world's largest, signed the other of India's two big contracts (also just under $2 billion). Jander thinks that one may already sit in last year's figures, unlike Cameco's. Together, the two deals — he expects around 18–20 million pounds between them — show a major buyer locking up supply quietly, which the headline volume statistics miss.
Editorial summary of the public YouTube interview "Per Jander: Insights on the Uranium Market" (Jimmy Connor channel, 10 September 2026). For personal study — not investment advice.