Title: Worst Era Since Great Depression Next: "Perfect Storm" Forming Warns Investor | Peter Grandich Show: The David Lin Report — interviewed by David Lin Guest: Peter Grandich — founder of Peter Grandich & Co.; planning group with close to $2bn under management Date: 2026-09-09 URL: https://youtu.be/YOBxCjHMHvM Length: 45:07 Note: Auto-generated captions, cleaned. Fillers (um / uh / you know / I mean as an interjection) and stutters/false starts removed; wording otherwise verbatim and every (mm:ss) cue left in place. ASR name mangles corrected: "Peter Greenwich" / "Peter Granage" -> Peter Grandich; "Scott Besson" / "Scott Bessinoso" -> Scott Bessent; "the Fed shaman" / "Kevin" -> Kevin Warsh; "Ursula Vanderlayan" -> Ursula von der Leyen; "Christopher Freeland" -> Chrystia Freeland; "George Colin" -> George Carlin; "Jameson Greer" -> Jamieson Greer; "fiong currencies" -> fiat currencies; "bare market" -> bear market; "6040" -> 60/40; "CE Fed watch tool" -> CME FedWatch tool; "Magna people" -> MAGA people; "eroff" / "errors" (in "worst era since the Great Depression") -> era.
00:00 These are a lot of things that are coming together here at a time politically, socially, and economically that are setting up probably for one of the worst potential eras since the last Great Depression. >> We're not at war with Canada. What are they going to do? They're going to take their two submarines out of the Edmonton Mall and say...
00:17 Did you watch that clip? >> Yeah, that was that. Can I just tell you his viciousness and arrogance gets to a point where it's just disgusting. >> It's Wednesday, September 9th. The US 10-year yield is now at 4.83%, the three-month bill is nearing 3.91% and the VIX is holding near 15 as markets stare down geopolitical turmoil as well as the looming midterms.
00:39 Reuters finds no midterm premium in the VIX curve despite a massive average 17% drawdown occurring in stocks for each month of the past 13 midterms. Now, last month, September 8th, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told students at a fireside chat that this is the house now on the yen carry. We're going to be talking to our next guest about the implications of what the Treasury may do next.
01:03 What the bond market is signaling and what markets are signaling overall. He's Peter Grandich, a well-known and frequent guest on this program. Peter, welcome back to the show. Peter is the founder of Peter Grandich and Co. Check him out, links down below. Welcome back, Peter. Good to see you again. >> As I always like to tell you, David, it is a true pleasure to speak to you.
01:22 >> True pleasure to have you back. Let me play for you a quick clip of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaking yesterday. I referenced his remarks in the introduction. Take a listen to this and we will react together. >> Based government, Ecuador, Bolivia. So all these countries are following the same thing and whenever people say oh well the Treasury Secretary is taking a risk, it's my dream, I have asymmetric information, I am the house now. So when we intervene with the Japanese yen
02:05 I have pretty good insight into what the Bank of Japan's going to do, what Japanese policy makers are going to do. But you can bet against me if you want. >> This was at the Cox School of Business in Dallas. Okay. What are your interpretations of that remark? He's talking about the yen intervention which already happened end of July.
02:31 Could there be more interventions on the way, Peter? >> Well, one thing is clear. This administration is not afraid to talk about insider trading then do it. He's basically saying I'm using insight that you guys don't have and beware that that can come back to bite you. At least that's what he hopes is going to happen.
02:52 What I think he's actually done is I think he's set himself up on a lonely island and the currency market and the bond market is much bigger than the stock market, which this administration has been able to stroke with key timings of words that kick in algorithm programs and save the troubles that were happening during the height of the Middle East crisis, although it's starting again.
03:17 As you know, I've been an outspoken person and I'm far from alone that the yen carry trade was going to come back to bite, especially the US, because we have used it as a liquifying event for our own financial markets and there's just no way in my view that the Japanese are going to sacrifice themselves so the United States can have an easier time.
03:39 I think they've been quietly, and we've seen statistics now, they've been selling their bonds along with the Chinese and others. And I think they're going to sell more US security assets in order to put more of their house in order. And what are we doing? We're going down the same road that they went down. We're going to cheapen our paper.
03:57 We're going to issue more short-term bonds by supposedly paying off long-term bonds. It's like having a mortgage, Dave, and saying, "You know what? I'm just going to use my credit card to pay it off." That'll solve the problem — it doesn't solve the problem at all. So I think he set up a contest that this is one that the United States is not going to win.
04:17 And let me just add this for the gold bugs out there, for the people for 20, 30 years who've been talking about these things. This has now finally happened. And what's happened is because people have heard it for so long, it's been dull in their mind. But understand this, this is tremendous. The United States has isolated itself on the world stage monetarily, economically, militarily, trade-wise, and all.
04:42 And now this is where the dollar really is going to pay the dues for all these years of easy access. So I think it's big news. I think it's going to be further big news and I think he comes out on the short end of the stick. >> Okay, let's talk about the yen. The Treasury intervened in the yen market on the 30th of July.
05:04 The yen appreciated and then it went back halfway and then now it's surging once more ahead of what people are anticipating to be a Bank of Japan rate hike. So it's now up to 153 against the US dollar. I guess the Treasury doesn't need to do anything anymore. Have they already won? The fear is the yen carry trade reverses, everything goes apart.
05:26 But the yen strengthening, that doesn't happen, right? >> There's as much of an issue of the yen strengthening as if it was continually weakening, especially for Japan. Again, it's going to cause them to focus more on themselves and not elsewhere. And that is what other countries continue to do, especially now with what I still consider our greatest ally, Canada.
05:50 And I'm not stroking you because that's where you're sitting, but this is a country that its leader decided to alienate the whole world against the United States. And as if there's no repercussions — well, you know what? When we were the world's largest creditor nation when I started 42 years ago, you could do that.
06:07 But when you're so dependent on other people to keep financing deficits who are now actually selling your securities, not buying them, it just sets us up for much bigger problems. This is just one of many now that are coming together to form a near-perfect storm for this stock market and of course the bond market.
06:25 >> Okay. So what's actually at risk for the US Treasury market right now? >> Well, what's at risk is the line in the sand and that's the 5% on the 10-year. If for any reason — and I still think it's questionable whether it can get through it or not and stay above it — but if for any reason we get above 5% on the 10-year and stay there for more than a couple of days, I just think we have a huge, huge bond crisis, we're going to see tremendous additional selling and that weight will actually fall on the
06:56 stock market because one of the things that's propelled and kept the stock market up is the AI craze at a time when they're also looking to raise money to continue their game going in debt instruments which will be far more challenging. And give you an example, I just posted it before you and I started speaking: back at the beginning of 2025 we had one of the largest spreads between junk bonds and Treasuries and of course I was out of Treasuries and I said but from this point on look for the junk bond spread
07:30 to come down to the point where if it gets to where it's close to Treasuries you're going to want to sell junk bonds too. So, the bond market has substantial losses for a wide spectrum of people. And the bond market is so much bigger than the general equity market and has such a more importance to the economy than the stock market.
07:50 And I'll just say this much, I can't imagine if the Fed does raise interest rates, how fast Trump will throw Kevin Warsh under the bus. This is all setting up. It's almost like a dream come true for the biggest gold bulls and biggest gold bugs ever. This is the scenario, the nightmare scenario that for decades was spoken about but is actually now coming to fruition.
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09:01 So, visit monetary-metals.com/lin today. Scan the QR code here or use the link in the description down below to learn more. So, you're saying that the Fed needs to raise rates, but that would be politically suicidal for Kevin. >> It's suicidal for him versus Trump. And I think Trump has a much bigger problem than that and that is the loss of the House and even potentially the Senate which will then in my opinion not give him six months lasting as president.
09:32 That's another discussion. But I'll just say this. If for some reason the Fed doesn't raise rates in all of this, it's actually more troublesome than if they do raise rates. See, if they raise rates here, I think some of the bond vigilantes will say, "Hey, at least the guy that's there now, he's not as crazy as the guy that's sitting in the White House, maybe we don't have to panic so much."
09:55 But if they don't raise rates and we still see interest rates going higher, that can really start a dramatic sell-off. >> Trump wants to win the midterms obviously, but not for the reasons we think. Why does he really care that the House and the Senate both don't go to the Democrats? >> With everything with that man, and this is just my opinion, with everything with that man, it all has to do with self-preservation and ego.
10:20 I don't think it's because he's thinking it's the greatest single thing that can happen for America. The problem is that the issues that will occur if he loses the House, which is already on a very small margin. Listen, the last 17 midterm elections, the stock market had minimum large-scale single-digit decline and substantial large decline of almost 20%.
10:47 Midterm elections are normally not good for the sitting president to begin with. But this president has done so much in this less than two years that he's been sitting there that the acceleration of the problems are happening because of his actions. And as this is occurring, this is also happening at a time when all around the world people are looking not to work with the United States.
11:11 Don't forget, remember when I kept telling you he made a big mistake carrying a big stick instead of carrying an olive branch. Not only the tariffs going to be reversed, but also we were going to see allies move away from us. Well, what happens with that? Well, we saw what happened in the Middle East.
11:27 No one wanted to go there and join the United States in their fight, so to speak, for the world. But more importantly now, no one wants to buy our debt anymore. The lion's share of Treasury issues now are being purchased here in the US which is only going to accelerate the spread of the deficit. So you and I could spend the next several hours just talking about this issue and none of it's really good and none of it is really good for the president either.
11:54 >> There's a 60% chance that the Federal Reserve is going to raise rates in a couple of days by next week according to the CME FedWatch tool. Presently, that number has shifted back and forth in the last couple days. Anyway, if the Fed doesn't raise rates, what happens to markets? It's a coin toss by this point.
12:13 >> I actually think it's going to be a negative if they don't raise rates. Now, you and I are talking before two important inflation numbers coming out. But even if those inflation numbers aren't as bad as some think they may be, since those numbers have been taken from, since then inflation's even become stronger because we've had such a big bump up in key things like oil, gas, diesel, and all.
12:40 So the next month's numbers could be even worse than that. So the Fed is really — it's a coin toss in my book. I think a lot will have to do how those two numbers come out and what they suggest to them. Having said that, it's in their best interest to raise rates irregardless to look like they're not being manipulated by this guy that's now telling people, I'm not even going to deal with a country if our rates don't go lower.
13:10 And I also think it's important now for bond vigilantes to think that the Fed is somehow staying ahead of the problems in the bond market because let's face facts. If the Fed raises interest rates, it goes against what the Treasury is doing. And the Fed and Treasury are supposed to be on the same playing field. And right now they're not.
13:31 >> Why should the Fed be raising interest rates? Think about it. Energy costs are going up. Like you said, our living costs are getting more expensive. Debt's piling up. Shouldn't they keep rates low to stimulate the economy? >> Well, no. The inflation part of this — this is what people are not recognizing — that 3% inflation in a moderate to slow economy is actually worse than 5% inflation in a strong economy.
14:01 It gets back to something that has been tossed around a few times the last couple years but never came out for a long enough time, and that's stagflation. But the other important thing that the Fed has to keep in mind is the dollar. It doesn't want to see — everybody always says a strong dollar is good for us. No.
14:20 For the United States, they'd rather have a slightly softer dollar. But right now the problem is that we are continuing running multi-trillion dollar deficits and people who used to purchase that debt are buying less of it. So the Fed has really no choice. So one of the things it has to consider is in order to attract that capital, we have to have a better interest rate differential.
14:46 So raising rates could actually bring in more capital because now we have a better yield than maybe somebody else that we're competing with. >> In one of your recent videos on Pete Speaks, actually released yesterday, you said that you called staying out of Treasury bonds one of the best calls of your career.
15:06 You said those losses will continue. Why is that? >> Well, I made the most important decision I think — we have a planning group of close to 2 billion under management and the end of 2021 I felt that the only thing that can happen with interest rates is to go up and go up a lot, meaning that that would be losses for Treasury bonds and that gold would outperform both stocks and bonds.
15:29 Which it has. Gold has, even with the correction, has doubled the performance since then of what the stock market has done. But more importantly regarding the bonds, here's a very important thing, David. 42 years ago when I started in the dinosaur age of when we only had two stock exchanges, this is what you were told as a financial adviser or what we call stock brokers.
15:55 Then: you buy stocks to try to make money and you buy bonds to save your money. And yet anybody that's purchased Treasury bonds since the end of '21 to now, including the dividend yield, has actually lost money. It's unheard of. It's not something that makes sense for all of us that grew up in a different era. And the problem now is that if the stock market doesn't keep going up for people to compensate for that, then you have a double whammy of an underperforming stock and bond market.
16:26 And then we have a series of a huge problem because two-thirds of our financial service industry in the US has never experienced a bear market. They would have no idea what to do if the stock market and bonds don't go up for several months or worst case year or two. And that also includes their clientele.
16:45 So these are a lot of things that are coming together here at a time politically, socially, and economically that are setting up probably for one of the worst potential eras since the last Great Depression. I'm not a doomster. I don't sell anything that's going to profit. I don't have dry food or guns or ammo or log cabins in the woods, but I am telling you the things that have been spoken about for decades that people used to say, "That's just crazy talk." It's not crazy anymore.
17:15 >> Worst potential era since the Great Depression. For what exactly — for the average person in the economy at large? >> Listen, here in the United States, let me take a minute on this, Dave, if you don't mind. Americans are working paycheck to paycheck. So, understand this. Right now, as you and I are speaking, they're just trying to get to work and all the issues they have with family and all their stuff and how am I going to pay the mortgage and all that kind of stuff.
17:41 They're working paycheck to paycheck as high as people earning 300,000 that are working paycheck to paycheck. The government is running multi-trillion deficits and 25 of our 50 states have deficits as well. So governments only have two ways to run. Raise taxes and cut services. Those are the two things they can do to try to keep things going.
18:03 So as they're going to have to raise more taxes and cut services, those people are two-thirds of Americans. How much more can you take out of them? They're barely getting by now. You can't tax them out more. The extremely wealthy find ways. So, the working class people better be prepared for more cost of living, not just from food and energy, but just government.
18:28 We've just had now three states in the last year issue here what we call mandatory benefit programs. People in Connecticut and Massachusetts, Dave, got their electrical bill and it tripled and they looked at it and the usage didn't change because the state passed this mandatory surcharge to pay for people in other zip codes that they term that are struggling.
18:49 So these people — well, that's socialism, and socialism and communism is creeping back into the United States and that's also another political issue that's going to have to be dealt with. So, like I said, I could sit here with you for hours and talk about various things. And we, our financial service industry, the don't-worry-be-happy crowd that makes up most of it,
19:11 they have no idea or no concept what to do if any of these things happen. >> As people find it more and more difficult to get ahead and stay on top of their bills — and I'll show you some statistics to support your point in just a bit, Peter — but as that cycle perpetuates, they find it more willing to vote in socialist policies because the logic here is why not spread the wealth if my situation isn't going to improve anytime soon.
19:37 And so the cycle perpetuates. Does that make sense? >> Absolutely. It's one of my arguments and what I believe is occurring here on several fronts and that is what transpires and this wealth or K effect. And people have to understand this: the majority of Wall Street, not the typical guy or gal that's sitting in some office in some brokerage firm in some state, but the upper echelon, the hedge fund manager and all the people that they're managing that money for, that's the top 1%. The top 1% of Americans own more assets
20:12 than the entire middle class combined. Well, I always try to remind people those people up in that class, they're not seeing the issues that you and I see. First of all, they don't buy their own food. Somebody buys it for them. Somebody cooks it for them. Somebody drives their car. They don't fly commercial. They have their own jets.
20:29 They're in a different world. The problem is that the spread and the difference of what they make versus the rest of the world has gotten far bigger. And eventually the people down here get certain people to start to point to those people and say your problem is those people. And that's where communism, socialism gets a spark where people start to think, hey, that at least is better.
20:57 It's a better way for us because it's not working with all these rich people making all this yada yada yada. So that is part of the political landscape as we go for our elections here in the United States. And if you don't think that's possible, look at some of the people that have already been elected or leading and look at their platforms.
21:18 They're clearly communistic or socialism type people. They're not capitalists and they're winning positions local, state, and on the federal level. >> Look at this. This is just to illustrate the point that you're making here. CNBC conducted a survey. Half of Americans, 53%, are stressed about their finances compared to a year ago.
21:40 63% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. Like you said, 90% of them have less than $500 left over each month after expenses. Overall, 37% of Americans either just break even or fall into a deficit, 17%, after expenses each month. Among those living paycheck to paycheck, 90% have less than $500 left and nearly half, 47%, are in a deficit or break even.
22:07 Now, I know you have your planning group that's mostly retirees, but if some of these people in this demographic that I just read to you come to you today and say to you, Peter, hey, this is my situation, I need help — what would you say to them? >> Well, what I say to them normally they don't like hearing and that is you have to spend less than you make.
22:24 That's the first order of business. If our government's chosen not to do it, which it hasn't for decades, we at least need to try to do it as best as possible. Unfortunately, we've gotten used to certain things that we think are necessities which were really luxuries for previous generations.
22:43 So, one of the first things is to try to get them to understand that. The problem, like I said, is even those that are doing that, they're struggling to stay afloat because costs are much higher than the government has been telling us. Listen, anybody knows it's been more than 2 or 3% to pay for the average thing, no matter what it was, food, clothing, insurance, mortgage, etc.
23:08 And now we have this other issue that things that are dire, that are really critical — energy. Diesel: you can't imagine how many people are impacted by the cost of diesel. Almost all goods in the United States at least move through the United States via diesel, via trucking, and so all these things get added into cost and so forth and so on, and people don't have any choice but to pull back. And we have a president that keeps telling everybody gas is going to be $2. Listen, he can say
23:43 whatever he wants, but the bottom line is things have gotten worse on his tour, not better. >> Let's say the same person goes to you and says, "Peter, I understand I got to cut back on my spending now, save more than I spend. Will I be able to spend more money next year and perhaps the year after? Will the economy improve to an extent where I have to stop worrying about this now?" What would you say? >> I think we're in for a generation of tougher times.
24:15 Let's understand that we've been living beyond our means for decades here in the US. It's pretty well started when we went off the gold standard and we started with a government that started spending a lot more than it made. But our lifestyles have also become that way and so forth and so on. And we've been convinced by society that these are necessities when they're really luxuries.
24:40 When you look at a lot of things that the average family believes it needs or has versus what their parents or grandparents had — my poster child for what's wrong, David, not that they personally have done anything wrong, but they're the poster child, that's public storage. And there's public storage.
24:59 I know they're all through Canada as well. You don't go a mile or two on any major road in the United States and don't see public storage. Well, a generation or so ago, there wasn't public storage. In fact, people had much smaller homes, where the homes now are bigger where you can keep your stuff.
25:15 And we have too much stuff. There's a great bit by a comedian that's passed away now for years, but it really tells the truth, and that's George Carlin about too much stuff. And that's where we need to start. And it's tough because society has convinced us that without that we can't be as happy. More stuff equals more happiness.
25:35 Wall Street makes a living off of that. >> Okay, this is actually from the head of the European Commission, President Ursula von der Leyen. She made a speech last month to an audience. And this is in French, so I'm not going to play for you the clip, but basically this is what she said, translating into English.
25:57 She said savings are lazy. I'll just play for you. >> Savings are unfortunately lazy. 10 trillion euros of savings rest in bank deposits. A significant portion of European savings is invested outside of our continent. The goal of the savings and investment union — we need to be investing in European companies.
26:32 >> So, she's encouraging private citizens to voluntarily start taking their savings and putting that to work into investments. There's a big gap that she identifies. Is she right? This is she's speaking to Europeans, but would this apply to people from both sides of the pond? >> Well, she's doing that because people don't want to invest in Europe.
26:51 Europe has greatly underperformed much of the rest of the Western world for a few decades. Germany, when I started, was the economic engine that pulled the world, not China. And now it's basically dismantled. And so she's trying to restart the EU. As you know, I've told you for over a year, I believe the EU is beginning of the end of it.
27:14 But this is one of the things that they need to try to do. And listen, we kind of had that here, too. We had Trump back in August talk about we need to get people to invest in private equity. So, we got to pass laws so we can take their money out of savings and put it in private equity.
27:36 Why would we be doing that when the people who are supposed to be experts on private equity are doing so bad that the people want to take the money out and they have to stop them from taking it out, but we want to let the general public know, go and buy that. That's a bailout. And she's trying to bail out poor decisions that the EU has done economically for decades.
27:57 >> The government says to you, "Hey, hypothetically, Peter, you need to start putting your savings to work and invest or we're going to start taxing your savings." What's your response? >> Revolt. That's what it would lead to. If we get to the point where we are forced to take our money to buy a government project, we will have a revolution wherever it is,
28:22 even here in the United States. So people are not going to get to that level to where an elitism — because that's how government is looked at, as elitism — to take my hard-earned dollars and make me have to just in order so you can continue going that way. Now of course that's also the argument of people why you should own gold.
28:42 That's why you should keep money offshore and all those things. Is it possible for what you just said? Yes. Is it likely anytime soon? No. >> Yeah, I agree. Hopefully it doesn't get to that point, but it's not really an immediate concern for me either. Government bonds. Okay. You mentioned that when you started your career, in your words in the dinosaur age. It's not that long ago, Peter.
29:02 Not that old. But anyway, there was a time when bonds were in a structural bull market. That seems to have reversed since 2021. Like you said, let's assume this trend continues and we continue to have a structural bear market for long-dated bonds. What then replaces the 40% in the 60/40 portfolio? >> Well, we're seeing that already and it's one of the reasons why I have, other than stepping aside for correction, been so adamant about gold at this point in time.
29:33 We're seeing even financial institutions — never thought I lived to see the day but I did — taking gold and putting it in and taking half of that 40% bonds and making it 20 and using the rest for gold. We do know this much. Outside of the United States, gold is being hoarded. We're now seeing in China every weekend Chinese citizens, and they're being incentivized by the government, going and buying large quantities of physical gold, not just to wear and show everybody they're happy, but as investments.
30:05 This is happening while American citizens are running into stores to buy things they don't need with money they don't have. So gold is replacing part of that 60/40 portfolio. I also think now that people are going to start to recognize that the issues of critical minerals and metals in general are starting to become so acutely critical at a time when ownership of mining shares — not little juniors trying to find something, major producing mining companies, whether it's base metals or precious metals — this ownership of them versus the rest
30:48 of the market is at the lowest level ever. It's just a phenomenon that's hard to imagine. People own the least amount relating to mining now versus all other sectors in the modern era at a time when the arguments for metals have never been stronger. So, I think one of the things also that you're going to start to see, and it won't be just guys like you that are ahead of the crowd, but you'll start to see the financial media a year or so from now talking about mining in the way they started talking about technology a few years ago
31:25 because it's an absolute necessity. There's a dramatic shortage. Listen, there's a metal, tungsten. Now, I'm not here — I don't have a tungsten play. I don't have anything to promote for tungsten, but the US Army put out trying to buy tungsten for its military use and couldn't find any that they could purchase.
31:45 That's how bad it is legitimately out in the mineral world. And like I said, these are things that have been talked about for decades. Your town was the home of speculation for decades, Vancouver. Now, all the things that people used to dream of and fantasize are coming to fruition. And it's hard for people that have been around a while, Dave, to believe it now because they've been so hammered for so many years, they can't believe this is actually happening. But it is.
32:14 >> Does North America have all the raw materials and resources that we need? >> Canada does. United States made a huge — listen, so we be clear, so all the comments can come out and they always do, but let's be clear. I voted for him three times because he was the lesser of two evils at that time and when it first started, first couple months I said he's getting off to a good start, we need to fix the immigration problem, but it's been all downhill since then and one of the things he did, the biggest mistake I
32:44 told you about last year until the Middle East war, was alienated the world with this big stick and this trade war. Canada and the US combined, if they joined forces and worked together, could become naturally self-sufficient and not have to worry about anything almost from anywhere else in the world.
33:05 And what do we do? We got people so upset now they're burning American flags and it's just insanity. Now, do you also have problems? Yeah, you have a lot of issues too, economically, socially, and politically. But one of the advantages you have, if your government's finally waking up to that fact, is you have an abundance of natural resources, that you can be self-sufficient — food, water, energy, etc.
33:32 >> I'm going to get your opinion because you're American, but you've spent time in Canada, you've worked with Canadian partners before, you've done business in Canada. Canadian growth is dead last amongst OECD countries for the last 10 years. It's not recent. Canadians have been growing relatively poor relative to everybody else amongst developed countries.
33:52 What happened? How do we get from the most resource-rich country in the world to growing the slowest? >> Horrible government. That's what really always history will show, that very poor government. The government didn't speak for the people. It spoke for an elite certain level. We have that pretty well here too.
34:12 It may not be as severe at the moment, but we're heading in that direction. And the problem also has been is that regulation — one of the things that comes with big government is overregulation. And Canada just became so overregulated. When you look at what it took from the initial discovery of a mineral to the time they were finally bringing it to surface and selling it could be as much as 25 to 28 years; in West Africa it's 2 years. And so one of the problems that Canada was, it was overregulated and it's only now trying to kind of
34:52 change that but it has a lot of work ahead of it, like we do. We have left ourselves, especially here in the US, alone on an island now. And I got to believe the rest of the world is rooting for the Democrats because they feel he'll become impotent if he loses the House and maybe even the Senate and maybe then things could be worked out better than what he's brought us to at this point.
35:22 >> American trade representative leader Jamieson Greer downplayed the significance of the Canadian retaliatory tariffs. He said this is unhinged. He says we're talking about war and economic attacks and all these things. It's a little bit unhinged.
35:43 He says for the American side it's business as usual. The Canadians call it a trade war and the US side is avoiding using that word. Scott Bessent said, "We're not at war with Canada. What are they going to do? They're going to take their two submarines out of the Edmonton Mall." Come on, did you watch that clip? >> Yeah, that was that.
35:59 Can I just tell you his viciousness and arrogance gets to a point where it's just disgusting. Now, I'm prejudiced for that. Like I said, I spent 25 years, Canada was my home away from home. I've always argued that you could cross the border and in most places not even know you crossed the border, unlike any other places in the world at all.
36:18 The commonality between the United States and Canada was terrific. In fact, my biggest joke for over the years, I used to write a newsletter called North of the Border. And there was a great movie out years ago, Canadian Bacon with John Candy, and it really made fun of both sides but also brought out the real commonality that existed.
36:39 I think it's terrible to take that action. I'm only hoping, I really am, that his power will be greatly lessened after election day and that some of this severeness that he has brought about, especially with our relations with Canada, will lessen. And we'll find — just so you know, this is what I've said publicly David, and this will probably get the MAGA people who read your stuff making negative comments.
37:06 I don't think he lasts six months in the new year if he loses the House because the first thing the Democrats are going to do is they'll be running to fight to impeach and bring up all these other things. And I think what's going to happen is a lot of stuff where family and friends who have made lots of money is going to come to the forefront and surface and he'll take the road and say listen, Biden did it.
37:28 Suddenly there'll be a bunch of pardons that'll be granted and then he'll announce a resignment and Vance will give him a full pardon and I think the world will clap and I think the world honestly — and this will really get the MAGA people, and I live with one — but I think the world would be a better place if that happens.
37:44 >> Well, before that happens, if it happens, the rest of the world especially Canada right now is looking at whether or not the trade war is going to escalate. What is the decision-making process that the Trump administration is making right now to determine if they should counter with new tariffs or just stop here? What I'm trying to get at is why did this start in the first place from a strategic perspective? Canada isn't Iran. It's not North Korea.
38:08 How did this happen? >> Well, I think there's no escalation until people are going to wait to see what the election results are now. He has another huge problem now. The Middle East war didn't go away. He can no longer say they're about to make peace, they're calling me to do a deal, and get the market up. That's died.
38:29 Oil's gone back above 100. We now have diesel going through the roof. We have attacks of bases. And we have most of the people in the Middle East no longer looking to think that the United States is going to be there to protect. Listen, your government announced a couple days ago that it wants to hold talks with China, not just for strategic economic, but potentially strategic military.
38:58 Now, think about that. And if anybody ever thought that that could be possible at a time when the United States and Canada have one of the longest mutual defensive pacts known as NORAD — it's just an insane level that it's been brought to. It was unnecessary, unwarranted, and quite frankly, I think it will peak between now and the election, and thankfully after the election, we'll get something back.
39:25 Not like it used to be completely as before, but better than it is now. >> Yeah, that's a whole separate conversation. There's a huge debate even amongst Canadians and Canadian government officials as to whether or not Canada should be cooperating with China from a strategic level. Chrystia Freeland, the former deputy prime minister of Canada, went on CNBC recently and criticized the current government for making trade deals with China, which she calls an abuser of human rights supplying Russia with arms against Ukraine. Anyway, that's a whole
39:58 separate issue. I want— >> One thing, let me just add this to you, David, which is important. I'm not a supporter of how China conducts its human rights and all its stuff. But understand this, the growing part of the world is in Asia, not North America or Europe. And the wealth and the mechanisms for wealth are being built and stored there.
40:23 And it's clear and evident, it was one of the major reasons why I became so bullish on gold, that that part of the world realizes that fiat currencies are not going to be the answers for much longer. And therefore, we're going to see gold incorporated into their trading systems. And China is leading that. That's why they're buying so much.
40:44 They're not buying it because one day they hope to sell it and make a profit. They're buying it because it's going to become a mechanism in the way that they deal around the world. And whether you like them or not, they are viewed better in the world now on an uptrend than the United States being viewed in a downtrend.
41:03 >> Okay. Bottom line, what is your investment take or thesis from now till the midterms? Trump said, by the way, that he expects the Iran war to end right after the midterm election. That's what he said recently. First of all, do you agree or do you not agree? And if you do, what's the investment play here, David? >> Two days after we supposedly annihilated him, it was over.
41:29 All these things have happened. It's only gotten worse overall. It's not gotten better. And one of the things that's happening now is people are no longer taking his word for his word, and he's not able to convince. That's why the polls are declining. That's why even among the key supporters, even now, the Republicans are having a huge convention where you would have expected two years ago everybody and his mother would want to be seen with Trump.
42:00 Most of the key Republicans aren't even going. So, this is a change that's occurring here and it's going to peak at election day. The only stupidity — if I was a Democratic strategist, so you understand, I'm a Republican, a registered Republican, but if I was a Democratic strategist, the only thing I would tell my Democratic people, let him just talk.
42:24 Don't say anything. Don't go out there. Don't do that. Let him go spin. And he's gotten to the point where he's saying and doing things in the middle of the night and painting these pictures of where all it's the United States — this is troublesome and this is only getting worse and I can't imagine what it's going to be like not only 54 days, whenever the election is, but if the election goes against him what he'll be like after that.
42:49 >> What is the certainty then that you're betting on if there's so much uncertainty? What is the one or two certainties that will move markets and how you're going to invest accordingly? >> Well, other than the certainty that I expect to see you married in the next 12 to 24 months, I am going to go with gold, metals in general, and the companies that are advancing important deposits on a wide spectrum, including agricultural related, because this is a whole commodities driven move worldwide.
43:24 That's the one area where I would not be afraid to own things that are going to go down lower in price. There's no other sector right now to me that looks anywhere as compelling as that group. For now, that's where my focus would be. But I also think this is a good time to take in what we talked a little about earlier, getting our own house in order, getting a budget, making sure we're spending less than we make, and put ourselves in a better position.
43:51 So when the government comes knocking, we've built as good a moat and protectiveness. And the way I describe it to potential clients and our own clients, now is the time for capital preservation over capital appreciation. It's not how much you're going to make, it's how much you don't lose, which is going to matter over the next couple of years.
44:12 >> Great, Peter. Appreciate your candor and insights as always. Where do we follow you? >> Well, you can follow me on my X page. I look forward to the comments. They should be quite interesting when you put up this video. >> Please be respectful in the comments. Please write to Peter if you'd like to see him.
44:34 >> To you, Dave. Don't write to me. Write to me. Well, let me know what questions we should ask Peter again next time. He's a regular on the show. And do follow Peter's YouTube channel as well. He does his Pete Speaks. They're called Pete Speaks,
44:48 regular updates on his market views. Thank you so much, Peter. We'll speak again soon. Take care. >> Thank you as well, David. God bless you. >> Thank you for watching. Please do like, subscribe.