Peter Grandich — Worst Era Since the Great Depression Next (David Lin Report, Sep 2026)

There is no stocks table on this page because there are no stocks in the interview — Grandich names no ticker, and says so explicitly (31:25: "I don't have a tungsten play. I don't have anything to promote"). No security is inferred here. What he does state, unambiguously, are asset-class and sector positions — recorded below with the level or argument behind each.

2. The numbers on the table

3. Talking points

Asset / market	View	What he said	At
Gold	Positive	The core position since end-2021, when he decided gold would outperform both stocks and bonds — "which it has… gold has, even with the correction, doubled the performance since then of what the stock market has done." Now structurally displacing bonds: institutions are "taking half of that 40% bonds and making it 20 and using the rest for gold." Asia is the bid that matters — China is buying "not because one day they hope to sell it and make a profit," but because gold is becoming a settlement mechanism as fiat currencies stop being the answer.	29:33
Major producing miners (base & precious)	Positive	His sharpest contrarian point, and explicitly not juniors: "not little juniors trying to find something, major producing mining companies, whether it's base metals or precious metals — this ownership of them versus the rest of the market is at the lowest level ever… at a time when the arguments for metals have never been stronger." He expects the financial media to be "talking about mining in the way they started talking about technology a few years ago" within a year or so.	30:05
Critical minerals / metals	Positive	Shortage evidence rather than forecast: the US Army went out to buy tungsten for military use "and couldn't find any that they could purchase. That's how bad it is legitimately out in the mineral world." Explicitly disclaims any position to promote in it.	31:25
Agricultural-related commodities	Positive	Folded into the same call at the close: gold, metals in general, "and the companies that are advancing important deposits on a wide spectrum, including agricultural related, because this is a whole commodities driven move worldwide." The one area where he "would not be afraid to own things that are going to go down lower in price."	42:49
US Treasury bonds	Negative	Out since end-2021 — "the most important decision I think" — on the view that rates could only go up a lot. "Anybody that's purchased Treasury bonds since the end of '21 to now, including the dividend yield, has actually lost money. It's unheard of." He says the losses continue.	15:06
US 10-year yield — the trigger	Negative	The number to watch: 5%. "If for any reason we get above 5% on the 10-year and stay there for more than a couple of days, I just think we have a huge, huge bond crisis" — tremendous additional selling, and the weight then falls on the stock market because the AI complex is raising debt into it. At recording the 10-year was 4.83%.	6:25
Junk bonds / credit spreads	Negative	The round trip he called is complete. At the start of 2025 the junk-to-Treasury spread was "one of the largest"; he told people to look for it to compress, and that "if it gets to where it's close to Treasuries you're going to want to sell junk bonds too." That is where it is. "The bond market has substantial losses for a wide spectrum of people."	6:56
US dollar	Negative	"This is where the dollar really is going to pay the dues for all these years of easy access." The US "has isolated itself on the world stage monetarily, economically, militarily, trade-wise" — and the marginal foreign buyer of Treasuries is now a seller. He also notes policymakers would prefer a slightly softer dollar, which is not the same as being able to control the slide.	4:17
The euro area / EU	Negative	"I've told you for over a year, I believe the EU is the beginning of the end of it." Reads von der Leyen's "savings are lazy" push to mobilise EUR 10tn of European bank deposits into European companies as a bailout of decades of poor decisions — "people don't want to invest in Europe" because Europe has "greatly underperformed much of the rest of the Western world for a few decades." Germany, once the engine that pulled the world, is "basically dismantled."	26:51
US equities	Negative	Not a direct short call, but the setup: 17 of the last midterms produced at minimum a large single-digit decline and some near 20%; the AI craze is what has held the tape up and it needs the debt market; and if bonds and stocks fall together "you have a double whammy" against an industry where "two-thirds of our financial service industry in the US has never experienced a bear market."	16:26
Fed policy	Coin toss — but he wants a hike	Markets priced ~60% odds of a hike (CME FedWatch) at recording. His read: "I actually think it's going to be a negative if they don't raise rates." A hike buys credibility with bond vigilantes ("at least the guy that's there now, he's not as crazy as the guy that's sitting in the White House"); no hike with rates rising anyway "can really start a dramatic sell-off." The bind: a hike puts the Fed directly against a Treasury that is shortening duration to cheapen the paper.	12:13
Japanese yen / the carry trade	Negative for US assets	Yen at 153 and strengthening ahead of an expected BoJ hike, after the 30-July Treasury intervention. "There's as much of an issue of the yen strengthening as if it was continually weakening." He has long argued the carry trade "was going to come back to bite, especially the US, because we have used it as a liquifying event for our own financial markets" — and Japan will not sacrifice itself for US convenience. Japan and China are already selling US securities.	3:17
Cash / capital preservation	The default	The closing instruction to clients and prospects: "now is the time for capital preservation over capital appreciation. It's not how much you're going to make, it's how much you don't lose, which is going to matter over the next couple of years" — paired with the household version: build a budget, spend less than you make, build a moat before the government comes knocking.	43:51

Data point	Level cited	Why it matters in his argument	At
US 10-year yield	4.83% (recording day)	17bp from the 5% line in the sand. Above it for more than a couple of days = bond crisis, in his framing.	0:17
3-month bill / VIX	3.91% · VIX ~15	Host-supplied. Reuters finds no midterm premium priced into the VIX curve despite an average 17% drawdown in each month of the last 13 midterms — complacency into the event Grandich thinks is the catalyst.	0:39
USD/JPY	153, strengthening	The yen carry trade unwinding is his "liquifying event" running in reverse; the 30-July intervention gave back half its move before the yen surged again on BoJ hike expectations.	5:04
Fed hike odds	~60% (CME FedWatch)	Two inflation prints still to come before the meeting. He notes energy — oil, gas, diesel — has bumped up since the survey period, so the following month's prints could be worse.	11:54
His stagflation test	3% in a weak economy > 5% in a strong one	The single most portable idea in the interview: inflation must be judged against the growth it sits on, not against a target. "That's stagflation."	13:31
Assets under management	close to $2bn	His planning group, mostly retirees — the client base that makes capital preservation the mandate rather than a slogan.	15:06
Mining-share ownership	lowest level ever vs all other sectors	The contrarian screen. "People own the least amount relating to mining now versus all other sectors in the modern era at a time when the arguments for metals have never been stronger."	30:05
Household stress (CNBC survey)	63% paycheck to paycheck · 90% of those <$500/mo spare · 47% break-even or deficit	Host-supplied, and the base of his political-economy argument: a squeezed two-thirds that cannot absorb the tax rises and service cuts deficits will force, which is how socialist platforms start winning.	21:18
Government fiscal position	multi-trillion federal deficits · 25 of 50 states in deficit	"Governments only have two ways to run. Raise taxes and cut services." Three states have already passed mandatory surcharges — Connecticut and Massachusetts electricity bills tripled with no change in usage.	17:41
Permitting lead times	Canada 25–28 years · West Africa 2 years	Why resource abundance has not translated into growth: "one of the things that comes with big government is overregulation." Canada is last in the OECD for 10-year growth despite being the most resource-rich country.	34:12
European deposits	EUR 10 trillion in bank accounts	Von der Leyen's "savings are lazy" target. Grandich reads the campaign — and Trump's parallel push to open retirement money to private equity — as bailouts dressed as opportunity.	25:57
Oil	back above $100	Middle East war has not gone away; diesel "going through the roof." Feeds directly into the inflation prints and into his stagflation test.	38:29

1:31 Bessent's "I am the house now" — and why Grandich thinks the house loses

The Treasury Secretary told a Dallas audience he has "asymmetric information… I am the house now" on yen intervention, and invited people to bet against him.
Grandich's first read is about conduct: "this administration is not afraid to talk about insider trading then do it."
His second is about size. "The currency market and the bond market is much bigger than the stock market" — the stock market can be stroked with well-timed words that trigger algorithms; the bond and FX markets cannot. "I think he's set himself up on a lonely island."

3:17 The yen carry trade was America's liquidity, and Japan is taking it back

"We have used it as a liquifying event for our own financial markets and there's just no way in my view that the Japanese are going to sacrifice themselves so the United States can have an easier time."
Japan and China are already selling US securities, "in order to put more of their house in order."
And the US is copying the playbook that got Japan here — issuing more short-term paper to retire long-term debt. "It's like having a mortgage and saying, I'm just going to use my credit card to pay it off."

4:17 "For the gold bugs out there" — the scenario finally arrived

The thing 20 and 30 years of gold commentary described has now actually happened, and familiarity has dulled people to it.
"The United States has isolated itself on the world stage monetarily, economically, militarily, trade-wise… and now this is where the dollar really is going to pay the dues for all these years of easy access."
He is careful to distance himself from the sales pitch: no dry food, no guns, no ammo, no log cabins in the woods (16:45). "I'm not a doomster. I don't sell anything that's going to profit."

6:25 The 5% line in the sand

Asked what is actually at risk in the Treasury market, he gives a single number: 5% on the 10-year, held for more than a couple of days.
He is not certain it gets there — "I still think it's questionable whether it can get through it or not and stay above it" — but above it he expects "a huge, huge bond crisis" with tremendous additional selling.
The transmission into equities is specific, not vague: the AI complex is raising money in debt instruments to keep the buildout going, and that gets "far more challenging."

6:56 The junk spread round trip — a sell signal he set up 20 months ago

At the beginning of 2025 the junk-to-Treasury spread was one of the widest on record, and he was already out of Treasuries.
The instruction he gave then was conditional and dated: watch the spread compress, and "if it gets to where it's close to Treasuries you're going to want to sell junk bonds too."
That condition has now been met. "The bond market has substantial losses for a wide spectrum of people" — and it is "so much bigger than the general equity market and has such a more importance to the economy."

7:50 If the Fed hikes, Warsh goes under the bus

"I can't imagine if the Fed does raise interest rates, how fast Trump will throw Kevin Warsh under the bus."
He frames the whole configuration as the gold bugs' long-described nightmare scenario "actually now coming to fruition."
The political overlay he adds: losing the House — and possibly the Senate — would in his view leave Trump with under six months as president (37:06).

9:32 Not hiking is the more dangerous outcome

"If for some reason the Fed doesn't raise rates in all of this, it's actually more troublesome than if they do raise rates."
The mechanism is credibility with bond vigilantes: a hike says the central bank is not being run from the White House, and buys room. "At least the guy that's there now, he's not as crazy as the guy that's sitting in the White House, maybe we don't have to panic so much."
The failure mode is the one that matters: no hike, and long rates rise anyway. "That can really start a dramatic sell-off."

10:47 Midterms as the catalyst, not the noise

Midterms are historically bad for the sitting president, and the last 17 produced at minimum a large single-digit stock decline, some close to 20%.
What is different this cycle in his view: the acceleration is policy-caused, and it lands while "all around the world people are looking not to work with the United States."
The tariff consequence he says he flagged early: "he made a big mistake carrying a big stick instead of carrying an olive branch" — allies move away, and "no one wants to buy our debt anymore." The lion's share of Treasury issuance is now bought domestically.

13:13 The Fed and Treasury are no longer on the same field

"If the Fed raises interest rates, it goes against what the Treasury is doing. And the Fed and Treasury are supposed to be on the same playing field. And right now they're not."
The Treasury is shortening duration to cheapen the paper; the Fed hiking would raise the cost of exactly that short paper.
He also wants the optics: hike "irregardless to look like they're not being manipulated" by a president publicly conditioning trade deals on lower rates.

13:31 The stagflation test — 3% in a weak economy beats 5% in a strong one, and not in a good way

Lin pushes the obvious case for cuts: energy costs rising, living costs rising, debt piling up — shouldn't rates stay low to stimulate?
Grandich inverts the frame: "3% inflation in a moderate to slow economy is actually worse than 5% inflation in a strong economy… that's stagflation."
The implication for policy is that the inflation print alone cannot justify a cut; the growth it sits on is half the reading.

14:20 Why the Fed may have to hike: the rate differential is the last funding lever

Multi-trillion deficits, and "people who used to purchase that debt are buying less of it."
"So the Fed has really no choice. One of the things it has to consider is in order to attract that capital, we have to have a better interest rate differential."
A higher yield than the competing sovereign is now a funding tool, not a demand-management tool — which is why the usual domestic-growth objections don't settle the question.

15:06 "One of the best calls of my career" — out of Treasuries at end-2021

The decision, for a planning group running close to $2bn: rates could only go up and go up a lot, so Treasuries meant losses and gold would outperform both stocks and bonds. "Which it has."
The rule it broke: 42 years ago the industry taught "you buy stocks to try to make money and you buy bonds to save your money."
"Anybody that's purchased Treasury bonds since the end of '21 to now, including the dividend yield, has actually lost money. It's unheard of."

16:26 The double whammy — and an industry that has never seen a bear market

If equities stop compensating for bond losses, "you have a double whammy of an underperforming stock and bond market."
"Two-thirds of our financial service industry in the US has never experienced a bear market. They would have no idea what to do if the stock market and bonds don't go up for several months or worst case year or two. And that also includes their clientele."
His name for the profession as currently constituted: "the don't-worry-be-happy crowd."

17:15 The household ledger — taxes up, services down, and no slack left

People earning $300,000 are living paycheck to paycheck; the federal government runs multi-trillion deficits and half the states run deficits too.
"Governments only have two ways to run. Raise taxes and cut services" — and the two-thirds of Americans they would fall on are already at the limit.
The concrete example: three states passed mandatory benefit surcharges in the last year; Connecticut and Massachusetts electricity bills tripled with unchanged usage.

19:37 The K-shaped economy as a political mechanism

"The top 1% of Americans own more assets than the entire middle class combined" — and that cohort doesn't experience the price level at all: "they don't buy their own food… they don't fly commercial."
The dynamic he is pointing at is not envy but arithmetic: as the spread widens, "eventually the people down here get certain people to start to point to those people and say your problem is those people."
His evidence it is already happening: candidates with openly socialist platforms winning at local, state and federal level.

22:24 What he tells a client who is drowning

"What I say to them normally they don't like hearing, and that is you have to spend less than you make. That's the first order of business."
The generational reframe: "we've been convinced by society that these are necessities when they're really luxuries."
He does not pretend it is sufficient — even those doing it are struggling, "because costs are much higher than the government has been telling us."

24:40 The public-storage poster child and George Carlin's "Stuff"

His image for the consumption problem: self-storage on every major road. "A generation or so ago, there wasn't public storage. In fact, people had much smaller homes" — the houses got bigger and we rented rooms for the overflow. (Named as a cultural symptom, not an investment view.)
He points listeners at George Carlin's routine about "too much stuff" as the honest version of the diagnosis.
"Society has convinced us that without that we can't be as happy. More stuff equals more happiness. Wall Street makes a living off of that."

25:57 "Savings are lazy" — von der Leyen, and the bailout dressed as opportunity

The European Commission president wants EUR 10tn of deposits mobilised into European companies via a savings and investment union.
Grandich's answer is that the demand problem is real for a reason: "she's doing that because people don't want to invest in Europe," which has underperformed for decades, with Germany "basically dismantled."
He pairs it with the US version — Trump's August push to let retirement savings into private equity — and gives both the same verdict: "why would we be doing that when the people who are supposed to be experts on private equity are doing so bad that the people want to take the money out?… That's a bailout."

27:57 The forced-savings line — where he says it stops

Asked what happens if a government says invest your savings or we tax them: "Revolt."
"If we get to the point where we are forced to take our money to buy a government project, we will have a revolution wherever it is, even here in the United States."
He is careful with the probability: possible, yes; likely anytime soon, no. But it is "the argument of people why you should own gold" and keep money offshore.

29:02 What replaces the 40% in a 60/40 when bonds are in a structural bear market

The answer is already visible: institutions "taking half of that 40% bonds and making it 20 and using the rest for gold." He never expected to see the day.
Outside the US gold is being hoarded — Chinese citizens buying physical in quantity every weekend, government-incentivised, "not just to wear and show everybody they're happy, but as investments."
The contrast he draws is the whole thesis in one line: "this is happening while American citizens are running into stores to buy things they don't need with money they don't have."

30:05 Mining-share ownership at the lowest level ever recorded

The screen, stated precisely: not juniors — "major producing mining companies, whether it's base metals or precious metals" — whose ownership versus the rest of the market "is at the lowest level ever."
"People own the least amount relating to mining now versus all other sectors in the modern era at a time when the arguments for metals have never been stronger."
The re-rating path he expects: "you'll start to see the financial media a year or so from now talking about mining in the way they started talking about technology a few years ago."

31:25 Tungsten: the US Army couldn't buy any

The shortage evidence, offered with an explicit disclaimer of interest: "I don't have a tungsten play. I don't have anything to promote for tungsten."
"But the US Army put out trying to buy tungsten for its military use and couldn't find any that they could purchase. That's how bad it is legitimately out in the mineral world."
Addressed to a sector that has been beaten down so long "they can't believe this is actually happening. But it is."

32:14 North America could be self-sufficient — and chose a trade war instead

He states his own politics up front (voted for Trump three times, "the lesser of two evils at that time"), then the verdict: "it's been all downhill since then."
"Canada and the US combined, if they joined forces and worked together, could become naturally self-sufficient and not have to worry about anything almost from anywhere else in the world."
Canada has the resources — food, water, energy — but has been squandering them: dead last in the OECD for 10-year growth, because "one of the things that comes with big government is overregulation." Discovery to production: 25–28 years in Canada versus 2 in West Africa (34:12).

38:29 The Middle East premium is back, and the peace narrative has died

"He can no longer say they're about to make peace, they're calling me to do a deal, and get the market up. That's died." Two days after "we supposedly annihilated him, it was over" — and it wasn't (41:29).
Oil back above $100, diesel through the roof, attacks on bases, and regional partners no longer assuming US protection.
The strategic marker he flags as the measure of how far things have moved: Canada exploring strategic military talks with China while sharing NORAD with the US.

39:58 Why he became bullish on gold: Asia decided fiat isn't the answer

He separates the human-rights objection from the capital-flow fact: "I'm not a supporter of how China conducts its human rights… But understand this, the growing part of the world is in Asia, not North America or Europe."
"It was one of the major reasons why I became so bullish on gold, that that part of the world realizes that fiat currencies are not going to be the answers for much longer."
The distinction that matters for the price: China is not buying gold to sell it higher, but "because it's going to become a mechanism in the way that they deal around the world."

42:49 The one thing he'd own — and the one rule he'd give

Asked for the certainties inside all the uncertainty: "gold, metals in general, and the companies that are advancing important deposits on a wide spectrum, including agricultural related, because this is a whole commodities driven move worldwide."
The conviction test he applies to it: "that's the one area where I would not be afraid to own things that are going to go down lower in price. There's no other sector right now to me that looks anywhere as compelling as that group."
And the closing discipline: "now is the time for capital preservation over capital appreciation. It's not how much you're going to make, it's how much you don't lose, which is going to matter over the next couple of years."

Compiled from the public YouTube video for personal study. No securities table: Peter Grandich names no individual company or ticker as a recommendation anywhere in this interview — he says so explicitly — and none is inferred here. Public Storage is referenced only as a cultural symptom of over-consumption, not as an investment view. Views are his own as stated on The David Lin Report on 2026-09-09. Not investment advice.

Peter Grandich — Worst Era Since the Great Depression Next: a "Perfect Storm" Forming

1. What he actually takes a position on