| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What he said | At |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMBBY | Imperial Brands | QT · SA · STK | Positive | Ranked #1. After the 2026 sell-off "extremely cheap" at ~12% FCF yield and ~100% DCF upside; needs only to "normalize and steady the execution." Weaker in reduced-risk products, but a ~50–60% FCF dividend payout with everything else into "massive buybacks" of cheap shares — "I might add some." | 11:15 |
| BTI | British American Tobacco | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | Ranked #2 — "probably the best balance": ~10% FCF yield, ~60% DCF upside despite the rally, credit second only to PM, new categories turned profitable, ~55% FCF payout leaves room to delever and buy back. He bought in the 30s (17–20% FCF yield) in late 2023/early 2024 and sold at ~$55 a couple of months ago — "not sure if I would add back." | 12:23 |
| MO | Altria Group | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Ranked #3 — ~8% FCF yield, "around fair value"; strongest profitability of the six, robust credit, better on new products (on!) than he thought. But a US Marlboro story paying ~80% of FCF as dividends, and he avoids US stocks: no Hungary–US double-tax treaty since 2024. | 13:59 |
| STG.CO | Scandinavian Tobacco Group | STK | Neutral | Ranked #4 "just because it's so damn cheap": 18% FCF yield on midpoint guidance, 125% DCF upside, but "clearly the highest risk turnaround" — restructuring and missed targets make him hesitant, "I just keep an eye on it"; likes the dividend cut and deleveraging, but "first I need some execution from management." | 08:33 |
| PM | Philip Morris International | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Ranked #5 — "clearly the best company… they should be number one. Except they're too expensive": ~4% FCF yield and negative DCF upside even modelling its 9–11% EPS growth target. 42% smoke-free (IQOS, Zyn), top credit, reinvesting instead of buybacks — the right order, and the best performer since 2020. | 16:41 |
| 2914.T | Japan Tobacco (JT Group) | SA · STK | Negative | Ranked #6 — "the worst on this list… they are expensive, and they are not that good": under 5% FCF yield, the clear profitability laggard, ~90% combustible, 75% payout and no buybacks yet — "a somewhat weaker version of Philip Morris," though with strong global brands, very high credit quality, and a top performer since 2020. | 18:41 |
Not tabled: brands folded into their owners' rows — IQOS, Zyn, Marlboro (PM internationally / MO in the US); Vuse, Glo, Velo, Dunhill, Lucky Strike (BTI); on! (MO); Winston, Camel, Ploom, Nordic Spirit (Japan Tobacco); blu, Pulze, Zone X (Imperial); Cohiba and XQS pouches (STG). Reynolds American (acquired by BAT in 2017) is cited only for BAT's intangibles. Japan Tobacco (the transcript's "JTI") uses row id 2914.T (Tokyo) — the US OTC ADR is JAPAY.
Imperial Brands is the UK cigarette and tobacco maker, still building out small vaping, heated-tobacco and pouch brands (blu, Pulze, Zone X). It is still almost entirely a traditional-tobacco business, but tobacco companies can raise prices faster than smokers quit, so profits hold up even as volumes slowly fall.
Lukacs ranks it first because it is cheap and disciplined with cash. After this year's sell-off the company generates free cash (money left after running the business) equal to about 12% of its stock-market value, and his discounted-cash-flow model (today's value of all future cash) shows roughly 100% upside. It pays out only about half to 60% of that cash as dividends and uses the rest to buy back its own cheap shares, which lifts each remaining share's claim on profits. It just needs to hit even the low end of its guidance — he says he might add some.
BAT sells Lucky Strike and Dunhill cigarettes plus the Vuse vape, Glo heated-tobacco device and Velo nicotine pouches. A few years ago those newer products lost money; management chose to fund them instead of more buybacks, and they are now much more profitable — a turnaround Lukacs credits.
He bought the US-listed shares in the $20s–30s in late 2023/early 2024 when the free-cash yield was 17–20%, then sold near $55 a couple of months ago after the price roughly doubled. He still calls it "probably the best balance" — about a 10% free-cash yield and ~60% model upside, excellent credit, and a dividend that uses only ~55% of free cash — but he is not sure he would buy it back.
Altria owns the right to sell Marlboro in the US and the on! nicotine pouch. It is the most profitable of the six measured against its physical assets, and its credit is very strong. But it is basically one US cigarette franchise, and it hands out about 80% of its free cash as dividends, leaving little for buybacks or growth. At about an 8% free-cash yield he sees it as roughly fair value.
He personally avoids US stocks: since 2024 Hungary, where he lives, has had no double-taxation treaty with the US, so US dividends get taxed twice. He still ranks Altria third on its merits.
The Danish cigar maker (cigar names like Cohiba, plus nicotine pouches) is by far the cheapest name — an 18% free-cash yield on management's guidance and 125% model upside — which is the only reason he ranks it above Philip Morris. It is also the riskiest: a restructuring under a management team with a history of missing its targets, and the lowest profitability apart from Japan Tobacco.
He likes what the company did — cutting an unaffordable dividend to 40–60% of earnings, paying down debt and planning buybacks — and bond investors are not worried (its euro bond trades above par). Two days after calling it a possible top risk/reward idea, here he frames it as a watch: "I just keep an eye on it… first I need some execution from management."
Philip Morris sells Marlboro outside the US and leads the shift away from cigarettes with the IQOS heated-tobacco device and Zyn pouches — about 42% of its business is already smoke-free. It has the best credit, top-two profitability and has been the best stock since 2020, because it reinvested in new products rather than buying back shares.
Lukacs calls it "clearly the best company" that "should be number one," but the price already reflects that: only about a 4% free-cash yield, and even modelling its 9–11% earnings-growth target his valuation shows the shares worth less than today. Great business, wrong price.
Japan Tobacco (Winston and Camel outside the US, the Ploom heated-tobacco device, Nordic Spirit pouches) is still about 90% traditional cigarettes. It has strong global brands and very high credit quality, and its shares have done well since 2020.
Lukacs ranks it last: under a 5% free-cash yield makes it expensive, and it is the least profitable of the six — he suggests Japan's long low-rate "liquidity trap" has weighed on corporate profitability generally. It pays out 75% as dividends with no buybacks yet, making it "a somewhat weaker version of Philip Morris" without the valuation cushion; the yen adds currency risk for foreign holders.
For personal study — not investment advice. Source material © Peter Lukacs Research.