Peter Lukacs · independent equity researcher behind the "Peter Lukacs Research" YouTube channel — company teardowns (business, moat, ownership, valuation), currently running a Copper Series (five-miner comparison, Teck, Hudbay, Ivanhoe), plus sector comparisons (six tobacco stocks) and thesis revisits of unloved stocks (Scandinavian Tobacco).
#2 of 6 tobacco names: ~10% FCF yield, ~60% DCF upside, profitable new categories, ~55% FCF payout — bought in the 30s, sold ~$55; not sure he would add back.
The copper name he likes most so far: ~$33 fair vs $26 at ~$6.60 copper (bear −4% / base +14% / bull +42%), net cash, negative C1 cost on gold credits, tier-one jurisdictions and US growth to 250k t then 500k t+ — top of his second page, but still waiting for a crash before buying copper.
#1 of 6 tobacco names: ~12% FCF yield, ~100% DCF upside, ~50–60% FCF payout with the rest in massive buybacks — needs only steady execution; "I might add some."
His #1 copper pick on quality (tier-one assets, single-A, ~54% copper, dividends) but "damn too expensive" — waiting for a recession to load the truck; came late to copper capex vs Teck; Hudbay beats it on growth and jurisdiction.
Copper pure play and best performer since 2020, but Grasberg mudslide risk, lowest credit (BBB−) and fairly priced at $5–7 copper — no valuation room; top global producer Anglo Teck would rank alongside; with Grupo México, the Arizona incumbent Hudbay's hub would trail.
Trading arm profits from war-driven volatility in a fragmenting world; net debt ~$10bn vs ~$45bn gross, buybacks, Australian listing in October — fairly priced.
World-class high-grade copper (Kamoa-Kakula, Western Forelands) and strong backers (Friedland ~11.5%, CITIC Metal, Zijin), but DRC/South Africa risk, B−/B credit, negative FCF and dilution; his model is "kind of useless" — a "long shot… home run bet," graded yellow/orange, second page of his ranking.
#3 of 6 tobacco names: ~8% FCF yield, around fair value, best return on tangible assets — but an 80% FCF payout and no Hungary–US tax treaty keep him out.
#5 of 6 tobacco names: "clearly the best company" (42% smoke-free, top credit, reinvests first) but ~4% FCF yield and negative DCF upside — too expensive.
#4 of 6 tobacco names: cheapest by far (~18% FCF yield, DCF +125%; bear +77% on guidance floor) after a sensible ~50% dividend cut to a 40–60% payout, but the highest-risk turnaround — watching until management shows execution.
Fairly priced at ~6% 2026 FCF yield: early copper capex paying off, net cash; bear −40% / base fair / bull upside at $5–7 copper — watching into a recession and the Anglo merger.
#6 of 6 tobacco names: under 5% FCF yield and the least profitable — "a somewhat weaker version of Philip Morris" (~90% combustible, 75% payout, no buybacks).
In one line: quality first, price decides when — copper has a structural deficit tailwind but the majors are priced for it and a recession is coming ("not if, but when"), so he ranks the miners (Hudbay, the tier-one-jurisdiction grower, is the one that looks fairly priced to cheap; Ivanhoe's world-class African assets are a long-shot bet he can't value) and waits for a crash, owning mispriced oil and tobacco meanwhile; he also hunts unpopular, cash-rich stocks where even a starved bear case shows big upside (Scandinavian Tobacco).
Copper: great story, priced in. Collapsing discoveries, slow permitting and Latin American concentration support a structural deficit, but "none of these looks cheap." Quality-first ranking: BHP #1, Rio #2, Glencore (trading arm suits a fragmented, volatile world), Vale cheapest but iron-ore-bound, Freeport the pure play with Grasberg risk — "I want them to basically crash and then I can pick my favorites." (2026-SEP-11)
Hudbay: the copper name that screens cheap. Mid-tier, net cash, negative C1 cost on gold credits, growth to ~250k t then 500k t+ almost all in the US (Copper World and Cactus in Arizona, Mitsubishi funding 30%), and a management that has met past guidance; bear −4% / base +14% / bull +42% → ~$33 fair vs $26 — "fairly priced, even cheap," top of his list's second page. Still: "I'm going to wait for a crash before buying anything in copper." (2026-SEP-17)
Ivanhoe: great rock, bad neighbourhood. Kamoa-Kakula is one of the largest, highest-grade copper deposits in the world and the Western Forelands the decade's biggest discovery, and the register (Friedland ~11.5%, CITIC Metal, Zijin) is a green flag. Against that: DRC/South Africa risk, a B−/B rating, negative free cash flow and ~31% dilution since 2019. His model is "kind of useless"; the same assets in Canada or Australia would be "extremely highly valued," so it is "a long shot... home run bet," graded yellow/orange and on the second page of his ranking. (2026-SEP-20)
Jurisdiction matters much more now. Tier-one geography is his key selling point for a miner — Barrick underperformed peers with safer mines, Gold Fields is being rewarded for rotating to Australia and Canada — and it also makes a company a takeover candidate. Ivanhoe is the mirror image: world-class assets priced down for where they sit. (insights · insights)
Oil now, copper after the crash. The first page of his ranking is oil stocks ("extremely mispriced") and tobacco; the dream sequence is oil stocks triple, high energy prices and rates crash the economy, sell oil at the top and buy copper at the bottom. (2026-SEP-17)
Tobacco: best company ≠ best investment. Price inelasticity (~0.4) lets tobacco pricing outrun volume decline; his ranking of six is set by price and capital allocation — #1 Imperial Brands (~12% FCF yield, ~100% upside, buybacks; "might add some"), #2 BAT (~10%, ~60% upside; sold at ~$55 after buying in the 30s), #3 Altria (fair value, 80% payout), #4 Scandinavian Tobacco, #5 Philip Morris ("clearly the best company" but too expensive), #6 Japan Tobacco (expensive and least profitable). (2026-SEP-04)
Hunt the unpopular. A crash on a dividend cut can be the entry: Scandinavian Tobacco reset to a sustainable 40–60% payout, is deleveraging, and at ~18% FCF yield models +77% even in a bear case anchored to the bottom of guidance — "this could be number one" on risk/reward (2026-SEP-02); two days later, ranked against peers, it is a watch — "first I need some execution from management." (2026-SEP-04)
Valuation discipline. Scenario DCFs at three commodity prices ($5 / $6 / $7 copper), a 10% discount rate and terminal growth set by the pipeline (2% for mature Teck, 5% for growing Hudbay); he back-tests management's five-to-seven-year-old guidance before trusting it, and says so when a model can't carry the call (Ivanhoe) — he is adding a risk-vs-upside heat map to his ranking (2026-SEP-20); a good business that only models to fair value is a watch, not a buy — Teck Resources came out "fairly priced," bear case −40%. (2026-SEP-16)
Anglo Teck is a net benefit. The Anglo American–Teck merger creates a top-five, ~72% copper producer with synergies and a UK incorporation he likes for lower dividend withholding tax; he will value it once it exists. (2026-SEP-16)
Cycle position matters. Teck led the copper capex cycle while Rio, BHP, Vale and Glencore harvested iron ore and only started heavy copper spending in 2024 — the early spender's free cash flow inflects first. (insights)
Quality checklist. Net cash and investment-grade balance sheet for cyclicals (rule of thumb ≤50% debt-to-equity, ≥5× interest coverage; net not gross debt for traders), who controls the votes, whether management's KPIs target operations, cost and licence to operate, and free-cash-flow return on tangible assets against the best-in-class peers. (insights · insights · insights)
Payout vs free cash flow. A dividend above free cash flow is a warning; a cut to a capped payout that funds deleveraging is a positive — he criticises Altria's ~80% payout. Capital-allocation ladder: reinvest at decent returns first, buy back only when shares are cheap (Philip Morris doesn't — a valuation signal), then pay dividends. (2026-SEP-02 · insights)
Tax-aware universe. Based in Hungary, he avoids US stocks since the Hungary–US double-tax treaty lapsed in 2024, and favours UK incorporations for lower dividend withholding. (2026-SEP-04 · 2026-SEP-16)
What it is: free company-analysis videos on the Peter Lukacs Research YouTube channel, plus a paid YouTube membership where he posts weekly how and why his portfolio changed, what's on his watchlist and other updates; a higher "boardroom" tier adds access to a Discord channel for direct discussion.
Offering
What it is
How he runs it
Seen in the index
YouTube videos / series
Free single-company teardowns
What the company does, competitive advantages, who owns it, and a scenario valuation — e.g. the Copper Series (single names plus a five-miner comparison) and thesis revisits after results
How and why his portfolio changed; his watchlist; other updates
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Boardroom tier
Higher membership tier
Access to a Discord channel for direct discussions
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How it serves retail investors: a transparent valuation method (commodity-price scenarios, stated discount rate) that viewers can copy, and a published portfolio/watchlist for members to follow his changes.
Transcripts
One dated page per appearance — each has its stock table, talking points, and the saved transcript. Newest first.