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Pieter Slegers — Best Buys April 2026

March −5.3% and the Fear & Greed Index at "extremely fearful" — the monthly five now sit at decade-low valuations, with insiders buying, and the Cintas spotlight comes with an explicit entry price: $132 against $174.
2026-APR-05 · Compounding Quality (Substack) · Pieter Slegers / Team Compounding Quality · written post · read ↗ · transcript · actionable insights
One-line take: the third down month in a row (S&P −5.3% in March; sentiment "extremely fearful"), and the list has rotated hard into things trading at the cheapest levels in a decade. KKR takes the top slot — down close to 50% on recession worries, its software holdings and private-credit fears, while AUM has tripled in five years and $126bn of the record $129bn raised in 2025 is still cash: "KKR is in a great position to buy up cheap assets if prices continue to fall. But insiders continue to buy." 3i Group (#2) is down nearly 50% in six months as Action's growth slowed from ~10% to ~5% with French price competition, leaving it at a clear discount to NAV — the flywheel explained as Nick Sleep's Scale Economies Shared. MSCI (#3) and FICO (#4) repeat the toll-bridge case, with FICO promoted from March's neutral spotlight after falling further to "near the lowest valuation we've seen in a decade" — the bear case (VantageScore, and Fannie/Freddie being encouraged to accept it) is stated fairly rather than dismissed. MercadoLibre (#5) is down 35%+ after cutting shipping prices against Temu and committing $14bn of 2026 investment, with fintech credit risk the third worry — "one of the lowest valuations we've ever seen." The spotlight, Cintas, gets a full moat write-up (12,100 routes, 90%+ retention, the $5.5bn UniFirst deal combining #1 and #3) and a pass with a number attached: "We would be interested at a Forward PE of 25x… a stock price of $132 (current stock price: $174)."

1. Stocks & names mentioned

Stance reflects how each is framed in this post: the five Best Buys are Positive; Cintas is Neutral (admired, explicitly too expensive), and UniFirst and Vestis are structural references inside the Cintas write-up. Research legend: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis. 3i uses its London Yahoo symbol III.L as the row id (bare III is Information Services Group), with research pointing at the US OTC line. Temu (PDD), VantageScore, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are mentioned only as competitive/regulatory context. Written post with no timestamps — the At link opens the article.

TickerNameResearchViewWhat he saidAt
KKRKKR & Co.QT · SA · STK · FAPositiveBest Buy #1. "In private equity, reputation is everything. KKR has a 50-year track record that makes them the first choice for massive institutions." AUM tripled in five years; a record $129bn raised in 2025 with ~$126bn still in cash — "KKR is in a great position to buy up cheap assets if prices continue to fall." Down close to 50% off the highs on three fears — recession, software holdings and private credit. "But insiders continue to buy. That's a great signal from the people who know the business best."read ↗
III.L3i GroupQT · SA · STKPositiveBest Buy #2. Action — "a European Costco or Dollar General" — is ~76% of the private-equity portfolio, running the bulk-buying flywheel "Nick Sleep called Scale Economies Shared," with store count doubling every 4–5 years. "3i acts more like a holding company than a traditional PE firm, holding onto its best assets for decades. That's how they've doubled their Net Asset Value in the last three years." The stock is down nearly 50% in six months: Action's sales growth slowed from ~10% to ~5%, French competition is forcing price cuts (sales +2% there), and Europe is saturating — with €350–400m committed to a US rollout. "This price drop has 3i Group currently trading at a clear discount to its Net Asset Value."read ↗
MSCIMSCI Inc.QT · SA · STK · FAPositiveBest Buy #3 (repeat from March). Two revenue engines: asset-based fees on every MSCI-linked ETF (over $2.3trn and rising) and high-margin data/analytics subscriptions growing ~10%/yr with retention consistently above 90%. "The shift from active to passive investing is an unstoppable structural trend." Also a cannibal stock buying back shares. Investors fear AI hurts analytics or lets firms build custom indices free — "Insiders don't seem worried, they've been buying shares recently. This makes sense, as MSCI currently trades near its cheapest valuation level of the past 10 years."read ↗
FICOFair Isaac CorporationQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveBest Buy #4 — promoted from March's "not cheap enough" spotlight. "A monopoly in credit scores in the United States… a toll bridge on lending," 90% of top US lenders, ROIC often above 50%, and pricing power because "FICO's fee is a tiny fraction of the cost of a loan… but the value it provides is immense." The AI panic is answered — "No CFO is going to swap a proven, legally-accepted FICO score for an unproven AI model to save a few dollars per loan" — while the real risk is named honestly: VantageScore, the bureaus' rival, which Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been encouraged to accept. "Replacing it won't happen overnight, and the fear around FICO creates an opportunity. The stock is currently near the lowest valuation we've seen in a decade."read ↗
MELIMercadoLibreQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveBest Buy #5. "The Amazon of Latin America" — commerce 56% of revenue, fintech 44%, with a self-reinforcing loop: "Shopping leads to Payments (Mercado Pago). Payments give MercadoLibre data to offer Credit (Mercado Credito). Credit gives customers more money to go back and Shop more." Its own logistics network (Mercado Envíos) is "nearly impossible for a competitor to replicate quickly," in a region where e-commerce is expected to grow 20%/yr through 2033. Down more than 35% on three things: shipping-cost cuts to fight Temu compressing margins, a $14bn 2026 investment plan investors wanted as profit instead, and fear that Latin American inflation causes defaults in the lending book. "For long term investors, the stock is currently trading at one of the lowest valuations we've ever seen."read ↗
CTASCintas CorporationQT · SA · STK · FANeutralSpotlight — quality, wrong price. "Cintas is a tollbridge on the physical workplace": uniform rental and facility services (~77% of revenue), first aid and safety (~12%), other (~11%). The moat is route density (12,100+ delivery routes, 1m+ customers, lower cost per stop) and switching costs (3–5 year contracts, 90%+ retention). The $5.5bn UniFirst acquisition would combine #1 and #3, adding 300,000 customers and $2.4bn of revenue at Cintas' better margins — subject to regulators. "Cintas is a quality company for sure, but you rarely get it at a bargain price… down over 25% from its highs, but it still trades at a forward P/E >30x… We would be interested at a Forward PE of 25x. This means we would love to buy the company at a stock price of $132 (current stock price: $174)."read ↗
UNFUniFirstQT · SA · STK · FANeutralNamed only as Cintas' $5.5bn acquisition target — the #3 player, bringing 300,000 customers and $2.4bn of revenue, with margins materially below Cintas' (which is where the deal's value would come from). "The big question is whether regulators will approve the acquisition." No stance on UniFirst as a standalone investment.read ↗
VSTSVestis CorporationQT · SA · STK · FANeutralA scale reference only: a combined Cintas–UniFirst would generate about $11.2bn of revenue, and "the next largest competitor would be Vestis (VSTS) who only generates one fifth of this revenue." No thesis or stance offered.read ↗

Stance = how each name is framed in this post, not a price rating. Note the FICO progression: Neutral in the March spotlight at 21.6x 2028 EPS, Positive here after a further decline. The entry-price rule and the bear-case discipline are on the actionable insights page.

2. Talking points

The month: extreme fear

Spotlight: Cintas — a toll bridge on the physical workplace

The UniFirst merger — #1 buying #3

…and the pass, with a number

#5 MercadoLibre — the commerce/fintech loop, on sale

#4 FICO — promoted, with the bear case stated

#3 MSCI — passive tailwind, sticky data, insiders buying

#2 3i Group — scale economies shared, at a discount to NAV

#1 KKR — record dry powder into a 50% drawdown

The one-line summaries he closes with

3. In plain English

A jargon-free summary of the thesis behind each argued name. (Renders on each name's consolidated page.)

KKR — KKR & Co. Positive

KKR manages money for large institutions — buying companies, infrastructure and property with their capital — and collects an annual fee on everything it manages plus a share of the profits when investments are sold well. It also owns an insurance business, which supplies capital that never has to be handed back on a schedule. Its assets under management have tripled in five years, and reputation is the barrier to entry: a fifty-year record is what makes a pension fund pick you.

The stock has fallen close to 50% for three reasons, all of them about the future rather than the fee base: worries about a recession, the fact that KKR owns a lot of software companies at a moment when the market fears AI will damage them, and concern that the companies it lends to privately may struggle to repay. Against that, 2025 was its largest fundraising year ever at $129 billion, and $126 billion of it is still uninvested cash — which in a falling market is an asset, not a problem, because it lets KKR buy cheaply. And insiders keep buying the stock, which Slegers treats as the confirming signal.

III.L — 3i Group Positive

3i is a UK investment company whose value is dominated by one holding: Action, a European discount retailer that sells cheap household goods and now makes up about three quarters of its private-equity portfolio. Action works the way Costco and Amazon do — every efficiency it gains from buying in bulk is handed to the customer as a lower price, which brings more customers, which allows even bigger bulk buying. The investor Nick Sleep gave this loop a name: Scale Economies Shared. The store count has been doubling every four to five years.

What separates 3i from an ordinary private-equity firm is that it does not sell its winners to collect a fee — it behaves like a holding company and keeps them for decades, which is how its net asset value doubled in three years.

The stock has nearly halved in six months for reasons Slegers states rather than skips: Action's sales growth has slowed from about 10% to about 5%, competitors in France (its second-biggest market) are forcing price cuts so sales there grew just 2%, Europe is filling up with Action stores, and 3i is committing €350–400m to an unproven US expansion. The result is that the shares now trade at a clear discount to the value of the assets they represent. The row uses the London ticker (III.L) because bare "III" belongs to Information Services Group.

MSCI — MSCI Inc. Positive

MSCI gets paid twice for the same work. It builds the indexes that ETFs track, collecting a small percentage of the money invested in every fund with an MSCI name on it — more than $2.3 trillion and rising, because money keeps moving from active funds to passive ones. And it sells data and analytics software to banks and asset managers by subscription, growing about 10% a year with over 90% of customers renewing, because once its data is wired into a firm's systems, pulling it out is a project nobody wants.

Investors fear AI will erode the analytics business, or that firms will build their own custom indexes free. Slegers answers with two observations rather than an argument: MSCI is buying back its own shares consistently, so each remaining share owns more of it, and insiders have been buying recently while the stock sits near its cheapest valuation in ten years.

FICO — Fair Isaac Corporation Positive

FICO owns the credit score used across American lending. Every mortgage, car loan and credit card application generates a small fee, and it also sells the software banks use to automate lending and fraud decisions. Ninety percent of top US lenders use it, and the fee is a couple of dollars against a loan worth thousands — which is why it has been able to raise prices for years without losing anyone.

This is the same company Slegers passed on a month earlier for being too expensive. It has fallen further, to near its cheapest valuation in a decade, and now makes the list. He dismisses the AI panic — no bank swaps a legally accepted score for an unproven model to save a few dollars a loan — but is careful to state the risk that is real: VantageScore, a rival built by the three credit bureaus, which the government-backed mortgage agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been encouraged to accept. His judgement is that displacement of something this deeply embedded takes many years, and that the fear in the meantime is what creates the price.

MELI — MercadoLibre Positive

MercadoLibre is the Amazon of Latin America, and increasingly its PayPal too. A little over half its revenue comes from taking a cut of everything bought and sold on its marketplace and from delivering the parcels through its own logistics network; the rest comes from Mercado Pago, its payments arm, which people across the region now use for groceries, fuel and bills as well as online shopping, plus lending and credit cards.

The pieces reinforce one another: shopping generates payments, payments generate data about who repays, that data lets it lend safely, and credit gives customers more to spend on the platform. Building its own delivery network in a region where shipping is genuinely hard is the part a rival cannot copy quickly, and e-commerce there is still so under-penetrated that the market is expected to grow 20% a year to 2033.

The stock is down more than 35% because the company chose growth over reported profit three times over: it slashed shipping prices to beat back Temu (more volume, thinner margins), announced a $14 billion investment plan for 2026 when investors wanted earnings, and is expanding lending quickly at a time when high inflation makes investors worry about defaults. For someone measuring in years rather than quarters, Slegers argues, that combination has produced one of the lowest valuations the company has ever traded at.

CTAS — Cintas Corporation Neutral

Cintas rents uniforms and supplies the mats, mops, restroom products, first-aid kits and fire-extinguisher inspections that over a million American businesses need to operate. Slegers calls it "a tollbridge on the physical workplace." Its advantage is unglamorous and very hard to copy: route density. With more than 12,100 delivery routes, the more customers it has on a given street, the less each stop costs in fuel and labour — a cost advantage a smaller rival can never match. Contracts run three to five years and over 90% of customers renew.

It is also trying to buy UniFirst, the number-three player, for $5.5bn, which would add 300,000 customers and $2.4bn of revenue at Cintas' much better margins — if regulators allow it.

And yet this is a pass, with a price attached. The stock is down over 25% from its high and still trades above 30 times forward earnings. "You rarely get it at a bargain price." He names the level he would act at: a forward P/E of 25, which means about $132 a share against $174 today. Until then it stays on the watch list — a good illustration that a quality verdict and a buy decision are separate things.

UNF — UniFirst Neutral

UniFirst appears only as the company Cintas is trying to buy for $5.5 billion — the third-largest player in uniform rental, bringing 300,000 customers and $2.4 billion of revenue. The point Slegers makes about it is uncomplimentary in a useful way: its margins are well below Cintas', which is precisely where the value of the deal would come from, since Cintas would apply its own operating model. Whether regulators allow the number one to buy the number three is, he notes, the open question. No view is offered on UniFirst as an investment in its own right.

VSTS — Vestis Corporation Neutral

Vestis is named once, as a measure of how lopsided the uniform-services industry would become: a combined Cintas and UniFirst would generate about $11.2 billion of revenue, and Vestis — the next largest competitor after them — generates roughly one fifth of that. It is used to size the competitive gap, not as a recommendation, and no view on the company is given.


Summary derived from the archived Compounding Quality post (text in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Compounding Quality / Pieter Slegers for source material.