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Actionable insights — Our Portfolio in 2026

How to run an annual portfolio review that is checkable a year later: report the book in cash rather than market value, publish a standing rating per name that ignores your own entry price, and cost the long-term goal instead of asserting it.
2026-JAN-01 · Compounding Quality (Substack) · Pieter Slegers · read ↗ · full analysis · transcript
How to read this page: this issue contains almost no stock analysis — it is a reporting format. What is reusable is the format itself: five conventions that make a year-end review falsifiable rather than promotional. Written post, so no timestamps.

1. Report the portfolio in look-through cash flow, not market value

The repeatable method
  1. For each holding compute shares owned × free cash flow per share — the cash the underlying businesses earn on your behalf.
  2. Sum it, then divide the annual figure down to month, week, day, hour and minute so the number becomes concrete.
  3. Record the same figure every year, so the series is a growth rate you can audit — independent of what the market paid that year.
  4. Publish the per-share FCF assumption you used, so a reader can disagree with one input rather than the whole total.
Here: "What each company makes for us per year = Number of shares we own × FCF per share. What Visa earns us = 180 × $11.1 = $1,998." Totalled: $82,100.11 a year — $6,841.7/month, $224.9/day, $0.16/minute, against $11,985 in 2016 (an 18.9% CAGR). The same convention reappears in the July 2026 letter ($65,520/yr, $0.12/min) and again on 1 September ($106,119/yr, $0.20/min) — which is what makes those three numbers comparable.
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2. Publish a standing rating per holding, and let it contradict your P&L

The repeatable method
  1. Give every position a current rating (Strong Buy / Buy / Hold) that answers only one question: would you put new money in at today's price?
  2. Set it without reference to your cost basis, so a winner can be a Hold and a loser can be a Strong Buy.
  3. Publish it alongside the weight and the profit/loss, so the disagreement is visible.
  4. Re-rate on a fixed schedule rather than after price moves, so the ratings are not a reaction to the tape.
Here: three of the four largest weights are rated HOLDMEDP at 10.2% and about +$83,000, LVMUY at 8.8%, GAW.L at 7.0% and about +$52,000 — while two of the six STRONG BUYs are among the worst positions in the book: NVO (about −$22,000) and BRO (about −$6,000). The rating and the return point in opposite directions by design.
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3. Date every position, and let holding period be visible

The repeatable method
  1. Keep the purchase date beside each holding permanently, not just in the transaction note.
  2. Read the roster in date order once a year: what has been owned longest, and has it earned the tenure?
  3. Treat a position that is flat over multiple years as requiring an explicit re-underwrite, regardless of its rating.
  4. Note starter positions explicitly — a recent buy at a small weight is a different commitment from a full one.
Here: the sheet dates all 18. OTCM (14 Oct 2023) and MEDP (23 Oct 2023) are the launch fortnight; CSU.TO (10 Nov 2025) and BN (23 Dec 2025) are seven-week-old starter positions at 3.45% and 3.5%. Reading it in date order is what makes the OTC Markets problem obvious — the oldest holding in the book is flat after 27 months — and the 29 January switch acts on exactly that.
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4. Track portfolio-level cheapness as a yield, not a multiple

The repeatable method
  1. Aggregate the book's free cash flow and divide by its market value to get a single portfolio FCF yield.
  2. Compare it with the same figure a year earlier and with its own decade range — not with a peer group.
  3. State the expected growth in intrinsic value alongside it, so the yield and the growth can be added into a rough expected return.
  4. Use the yield when comparing across years, because it survives changes in accounting and in which earnings measure is fashionable.
Here: "The current FCF Yield of Our Portfolio equals 5.4% versus 3.4% one year ago. The current valuation level is the cheapest it has ever been over the past decade" — set against expected intrinsic-value growth of 13.6% in 2026 and delivered Owner's Earnings growth of 13.0% (2025), 20.0% (5yr) and 19.7% (10yr).
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5. Cost the long-term goal in savings, return and years — then say which lever dominates

The repeatable method
  1. State the objective as a cash-flow figure, not a portfolio value ("$1 of free cash flow per minute").
  2. Convert it into the capital required at an assumed yield, so the target is a number rather than an ambition.
  3. Solve for the years, disclosing all three inputs: current capital, monthly contribution, assumed return.
  4. Notice which input actually drives the answer, and say so — that is where the effort belongs.
Here: $1/minute = $525,600 a year; at a 5% FCF yield that needs $10.5 million. From $1.47m, "we add $50,000 every single month" at "a return of 12% per year" → "a little bit more than 7 years." The disclosure worth borrowing: at $600,000 of annual contributions against a $1.47m base, the savings rate is doing most of the work, not the 12%.
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6. Pre-commit to the concentration of returns before it happens

The repeatable method
  1. Write down the base rate you expect: how many of your picks need to work for the portfolio to work.
  2. Publish the per-position profit and loss so the actual concentration is visible, not inferred.
  3. Do not let the losers force a style change while the winners are still compounding — the arithmetic only works if the winners are left alone.
  4. Separate "this is down" from "this is wrong": the first is expected, the second requires an argued case.
Here: "If 6 out of your 10 picks are good ones, you are among the best investors in the world… All you need to be successful as an investor is a few big winners." In the book: MEDP +$83k, KPG.AX +$56k and GAW.L +$52k against five losers totalling roughly −$94k. Five names are down and none is sold.
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Methods distilled from the archived Compounding Quality post for personal study. Not investment advice.