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Pieter Slegers — Best Buys: June 2026

Five ranked ideas outside the portfolio, three of them tollbooths: KKR at nearly $800bn of assets, Fairfax's float, S&P Global's legal oligopoly, FICO in a 30% drawdown, and Stryker's razor-and-blade robot — plus a Badger Meter spotlight at 90% US market share.
2026-JUN-07 · Compounding Quality (Substack) · Pieter Slegers / Team Compounding Quality · written post (monthly Best Buys) · read ↗ · transcript · actionable insights
One-line take: a monthly ranked list with one structural rule worth knowing before reading it — "the companies in Our Portfolio are not mentioned here. We love all companies in Our Portfolio right now." So this is a list of what to buy outside what is already held, which is why FICO can rank #4 here two and a half weeks after the deep dive declined it for the portfolio. The month's market note is a rotation: the S&P rose 5.0% in May then fell 2.4% into June, the Nasdaq was down 4.4% in a week while "boring quality stocks" rose — Brown & Brown +4.8%, Ameriprise +2.2%, Medpace +2.2% — "I expect more and more moves like this to happen going forward." The ranking, counted down: #5 Stryker (ageing demographics, a razor-and-blade Mako robot at over $1m per hospital), #4 Fair Isaac (down 30% this year on the FHFA approving VantageScore 4.0 for mortgages — "I don't think that will be the case"), #3 S&P Global ("a financial toll bridge… a legal oligopoly", paid on every bond issued and every S&P 500 ETF bought, sold off on an AI fear the write-up rejects because "Large Language Models actually need S&P's private, licensed data"), #2 Fairfax Financial (the float model, decentralised, a consistently sub-100% combined ratio), and #1 KKR (nearly $800bn of assets, a record $129bn raised in 2025, stable management fees, Global Atlantic's permanent insurance capital, K-Series funds opening what the company sees as another $11 trillion market, and insiders buying). The spotlight is Badger Meter: 120 years old, 12.2% a year since its 1971 IPO, over 90% US revenue share, 41.4% gross margin, 25.8% ROIC, free cash flow consistently above 125% of net income, no debt, CAPEX below 2% of sales — with revenue and EPS down last quarter on destocking and delayed municipal spending.

1. Stocks & names mentioned

The five ranked Best Buys and the spotlight name carry arguments; the performance-table names are transcribed from the published images and carry only the month's return. Research legend: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis. Written post with no timestamps — the At link opens the article.

TickerNameResearchViewWhat he saidAt
KKRKKR & Co.QT · SA · STK · FAPositiveBEST BUY #1. "KKR is now managing nearly $800 billion (!)." The model: "The more assets KKR manages, the more it collects in management fees. The beauty of this? The management fees are very stable. They have to be paid no matter how the underlying investments perform." Growth evidence: "In 2025, they raised a record $129 billion in new capital." Two structural additions — Global Atlantic, "a large insurance operation", supplying permanent capital, and the K-Series funds giving individuals direct access to private-market deals, "growing very quickly", which KKR believes "opens up another $11 trillion market". Closing corroboration: "Insiders agree. They have been buying more KKR stock recently."read ↗
FFH.TOFairfax Financial HoldingsQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveBEST BUY #2. "They make money the exact same way Berkshire Hathaway does: they collect insurance premiums upfront, hold that cash (called 'float'), and invest it before paying out claims." Run by Prem Watsa, "the Warren Buffett of Canada". The structure: insurance subsidiaries operating independently "with a strict focus on underwriting profitability", and investments led by Watsa's team at head office. The quality test is stated and passed: "A ratio below 100% means the insurance business is profitable. Fairfax runs a consistently profitable insurance business. This creates growing insurance float. You can see it as free money for Fairfax to compound their investments over time." Follows the 19 May "Next Berkshire Hathaway" case; bought on 16 August. Listed in the conclusion under its OTC symbol FRFHF.read ↗
SPGIS&P GlobalQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveBEST BUY #3. "S&P Global is a financial toll bridge. You literally cannot issue corporate debt without a rating from S&P Global, Fitch or Moody's. It is a legal oligopoly." Two tolls, not one: "S&P Global gets paid every time a company issues a bond" and every time "an investor buys an S&P 500 ETF (they own the S&P 500 index)" — which "rides the wave of more and more people switching to passive investing". The drawdown is attributed to an AI fear and rebutted: "The market sold off S&P Global out of fear that AI will disrupt their business. I think that's unlikely. Their proprietary data, like Platts commodity pricing and their market data goes back over a century. Large Language Models actually need S&P's private, licensed data to be accurate." (The conclusion calls it a duopoly having named three raters in the body.)read ↗
FICOFair Isaac CorporationQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveBEST BUY #4 — and simultaneously the fifth-best performer of the month at +20.8%. The cause of the fall is named precisely: "Fair Isaac is down more than 30% this year. Why? A U.S. government housing agency (the FHFA) is now allowing a rival product, VantageScore 4.0, to be used for approving mortgages." The rebuttal has three parts: "More data is always better — even if lenders start using VantageScore, they'll still check the FICO score too"; "Switching Costs: bank rules and their own risk systems are built around FICO scores. Changing that means years of rebuilding everything from the ground up"; and recurring B2B software revenue with high retention. "The current drawdown in stock price is a chance to buy FICO near the lowest valuation we've seen in the past decade." Note this is a reader idea, not a portfolio buy — 21 May declined it at 30.7x after stock compensation and set an entry at $901.read ↗
SYKStrykerQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveBEST BUY #5. "Stryker manufactures and sells surgical equipment, neurovascular products, and orthopedic implants (like artificial hips and knees) to hospitals worldwide", with "the aging global population" as "a massive tailwind". The mechanism is the Mako Robotic-Arm Assisted Surgery system on "a brilliant razor-and-blade model": "Once a hospital invests over a million dollars in a Mako robot and trains its surgeons to use it, they rarely switch"; and "Stryker doesn't just make money selling the robot, they make recurring revenue on the software, service contracts, and the specialized consumables required for every single surgery." Summed up as "a proven compounding machine that grows both organically and through acquisitions."read ↗
BMIBadger MeterQT · SA · STK · FAPositiveTHE SPOTLIGHT — a conditional positive, not one of the five ranked buys. "Badger Meter provides the technology to measure and control whatever moves through a pipe", transformed "from a simple mechanical meter manufacturer into a high-tech water management solutions provider": over 90% revenue share in the US market, market leader in municipal smart water, with its own meters plus the ORION and BEACON software. Durability: "The business is 120 (!) years old. Since its IPO in 1971, the stock has compounded at 12.2% every year." Three sources of position — vertical integration, high switching costs on long municipal contracts, and a recurring software/monitoring mix. Numbers: gross margin 41.4%, ROIC 25.8%, free cash flow consistently over 125% of net income, no debt, CAPEX below 2% of sales. Market: smart water to $37.4bn by 2031, growing over 12% a year. Acquisitions: SmartCover Systems in 2025, "their biggest acquisition ever", into real-time wastewater and stormwater monitoring, plus UDlive in the UK. The condition: "they saw revenue and EPS drop in the most recent quarter" on customer destocking and cities delaying spending — "If these issues are temporary, Badger Meter could be an interesting stock for long-term investors."read ↗
FTNTFortinetQT · SA · STK · FANeutralBest performer of the month: +59.9% in May — by a wide margin the largest move on either table. No commentary accompanies the performance tables beyond "these stocks did well over the past month". Context: the 23 April write-up had argued the meaningful multiple was 33.6x after stock-based compensation rather than the headline 28.9x.read ↗
HEIHEICOQT · SA · STK · FANeutralSecond-best performer of the month at +29.8%, transcribed from the published table. No commentary. It had been upgraded Sell→Hold on the 7 May list.read ↗
QLYSQualysQT · SA · STK · FANeutralThird-best performer at +23.4%, from the published table. No commentary. It had been a BUY on the 7 May list at 24.5% undervalued and the ninth-worst YTD performer at -32.4% — a sharp one-month reversal.read ↗
NSPInsperityQT · SA · STK · FANeutralFourth-best performer at +20.8%, from the published table. No commentary.read ↗
UIUbiquitiQT · SA · STK · FANeutralWorst performer of the month: -42.7% in May, from the published table — the largest single move in either direction. Framed only by the standing principle above the table: "The cheaper we can buy great companies, the better." No individual commentary.read ↗
ZTSZoetisQT · SA · STK · FANeutralSecond-worst performer at -31.9%, from the published table, with no commentary here — because it is a portfolio holding and this list excludes them. The full bull case, at 10.6x earnings and a $180 fair value, was made in the 24 May portfolio update two weeks earlier.read ↗
WLKWestlake CorporationQT · SA · STK · FANeutralThird-worst performer at -24.5%, from the published table. No commentary.read ↗
NSSCNapco Security TechnologiesQT · SA · STK · FANeutralFourth-worst performer at -19.7%, from the published table. No commentary.read ↗
POOLPool CorporationQT · SA · STK · FANeutralFifth-worst performer at -12.8%, from the published table. No commentary.read ↗
BROBrown & BrownQT · SA · STK · FANeutralCited as evidence of the rotation the issue expects to continue: while "the Nasdaq was down 4.4% this week", Brown & Brown was +4.8%. "I expect more and more moves like this to happen going forward." A portfolio holding, so excluded from the ranked list.read ↗
AMPAmeriprise FinancialQT · SA · STK · FANeutralSecond of the three "boring quality stocks" cited for rising +2.2% in a week the Nasdaq fell 4.4%. A portfolio holding, so no separate case is made here.read ↗
MEDPMedpace HoldingsQT · SA · STK · FANeutralThird of the "boring quality stocks", +2.2% in the same week. A portfolio holding, excluded from the ranked list.read ↗
EFXEquifaxQT · SA · STK · FANeutralNamed as one of the three credit bureaus FICO licenses its algorithm to — "Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion" — i.e. FICO's customer, not a pick. No view.read ↗
TRUTransUnionQT · SA · STK · FANeutralThe second of the three bureaus named as FICO's licensees. No view.read ↗
EXPN.LExperian plcSTKNeutralThe third bureau named as a FICO licensee. No view.read ↗
MCOMoody'sQT · SA · STK · FANeutralNamed as one of the two other members of the ratings oligopoly that makes S&P Global a toll bridge: "You literally cannot issue corporate debt without a rating from S&P Global, Fitch or Moody's." The point is the structure, not Moody's itself — the barrier protects all three.read ↗
privateVantageScore SolutionsNeutralThe named cause of FICO's 30% fall, with the regulatory catalyst specified: "A U.S. government housing agency (the FHFA) is now allowing a rival product, VantageScore 4.0, to be used for approving mortgages." The rebuttal is that it is additive rather than substitutive — "even if lenders start using VantageScore, they'll still check the FICO score too to make sure they get it right." Contrast the 21 May deep dive, which treated the same threat as sufficient reason not to own FICO.read ↗
privateSmartCover SystemsNeutralBadger Meter's largest-ever acquisition, completed in 2025: hardware plus software that "lets you watch wastewater and stormwater systems in real time". Three reasons given for why it matters — an expanded moat into high-growth wastewater monitoring, a heavily expanded higher-margin recurring software base, and cementing Badger Meter "as the go-to smart water platform for municipalities". Followed by UDlive in the UK.read ↗

Three notes. (1) The list excludes the portfolio by design — "the companies in Our Portfolio are not mentioned here" — which is why ZTS, BRO, AMP and MEDP appear only in the performance tables and the rotation note. (2) FICO is ranked a Best Buy while the portfolio has explicitly declined it. Seventeen days earlier the deep dive said "No. We are not buying FICO at this point in time for Our Portfolio" on the same VantageScore risk, plus 22%-of-profit stock compensation; here the same risk is rebutted and the drawdown called an opportunity. The SBC objection is not mentioned in this issue at all. (3) FICO is on both the Best Buys list and the best-performers table (+20.8% in May) while being described as "down more than 30% this year" — both are true over different windows, and the conclusion also calls S&P Global a "legal duopoly" after naming three raters in the body.

2. Talking points

The month, and the rotation being called

The two performance tables

Badger Meter: 120 years, 90% share

#5 Stryker — the razor-and-blade robot

#4 FICO — buying the regulatory shock

#3 S&P Global — two tolls on one system

#2 Fairfax — the float model, checked

#1 KKR — fees, permanence and a new channel

3. In plain English

A jargon-free summary of the thesis behind each argued name. (Renders on each name's consolidated page.)

KKR — KKR & Co. Positive

KKR takes money from pension funds and other large investors and uses it to buy whole companies, lend to them, or build infrastructure. It also owns Global Atlantic, an insurance business.

The reason it is ranked first is that its income is far steadier than what it invests in. KKR charges a management fee on the roughly $800 billion it looks after, and that fee is payable whether or not the underlying investments do well. So you are buying a fee stream, not a portfolio.

The stream is still growing: it raised a record $129 billion of new money in 2025. Two things make it durable. Global Atlantic's insurance premiums give KKR capital that never has to be given back, unlike a fund with a fixed life. And the new K-Series funds let ordinary investors buy into private-market deals for the first time — a channel KKR thinks is worth another $11 trillion of potential money.

Insiders have been buying the shares themselves.

FFH.TO — Fairfax Financial Holdings Positive

Fairfax is a Canadian insurance group that works the way Berkshire Hathaway does. It collects insurance premiums today and pays claims years later, and invests the money in between. That pool of held cash is called float.

The crucial question with any float business is whether the insurance itself makes money. The test is the combined ratio: claims and costs divided by premiums. Below 100% and the underwriting is profitable, which means the float costs nothing at all — it is free money to invest. Fairfax has consistently run below that line, and the float keeps growing as more policies are written.

The organisational point is that Fairfax is deliberately decentralised: each insurance subsidiary runs itself with a strict focus on writing profitable policies, while Prem Watsa's team at head office handles the investing. Watsa is widely called the Warren Buffett of Canada.

Ranked the second-best idea of the month here. It was bought for the portfolio in August.

SPGI — S&P Global Positive

S&P Global collects a fee twice over from the financial system, which is why it is described as a toll bridge.

The first toll is credit ratings. A company issuing bonds effectively must have a rating from S&P, Moody's or Fitch — investors and regulations require one. Three firms, and no realistic way to bypass them: a legal oligopoly.

The second toll is the indices. S&P owns the S&P 500 itself, and rents it and its other benchmarks to the exchange-traded funds that track them. Every time someone buys an S&P 500 tracker, S&P Global gets paid — so it earns money from the shift of the whole world into passive investing.

The shares sold off because investors feared artificial intelligence would make its data business obsolete. The argument here is the reverse: its data is private and licensed, some of it — like Platts commodity prices — stretching back over a century, and language models need exactly that kind of proprietary data to be accurate. AI becomes a customer rather than a competitor.

FICO — Fair Isaac Corporation Positive

Fair Isaac owns the credit score American lenders use. The shares are down more than 30% this year for one specific reason: a US housing regulator has decided that a competing score, VantageScore 4.0, can also be used to approve mortgages. That ended what had looked like an unbreakable monopoly.

The argument for buying anyway has three parts. Lenders are unlikely to drop FICO — they will simply check both, because more information reduces the chance of a bad loan. Banks' internal risk systems, rules and models are all built around FICO scores, and rebuilding them would take years. And a growing part of the company is business software sold to banks for fraud and lending decisions, which is subscription revenue with high renewal rates.

The conclusion is that the fall has taken the shares to their cheapest valuation in a decade.

One thing to hold alongside it: seventeen days earlier the same publisher declined to buy FICO for its own portfolio on exactly this risk, plus the fact that staff share awards equal 22% of profits. This list explicitly covers ideas outside the portfolio, and the share-compensation objection is not repeated here.

SYK — Stryker Positive

Stryker makes surgical equipment and orthopaedic implants — artificial hips and knees — sold to hospitals worldwide. An ageing population means steadily more of those operations, which is the simple tailwind behind the case.

The more interesting part is the Mako surgical robot, which works like razors and blades. A hospital spends over a million dollars on the robot and then trains its surgeons on it. Having done that, it almost never changes supplier — the cost and disruption are too great.

And the robot is not really where the money is. Every operation performed on it requires Stryker's own specialised disposable parts, plus software and service contracts. So the one-off sale creates a stream of repeat revenue that lasts as long as the machine does.

Ranked fifth of the month's five ideas.

BMI — Badger Meter Positive

Badger Meter makes the devices that measure whatever flows through a pipe — chiefly water meters for towns and cities — and increasingly the software that reads them remotely. It has more than 90% of the US market and is the leader in smart water systems for municipalities.

What makes it unusual is durability. The company is 120 years old and its shares have returned 12.2% a year since 1971. Its position comes from three things: it makes the meters, sensors and software itself, so it controls the whole system; water utilities sign long contracts and switching would be expensive and disruptive; and a growing share of revenue is subscriptions and monitoring that recur every year.

Financially it behaves more like a software company than a manufacturer: a 41.4% gross margin, a 25.8% return on capital, cash generation consistently above reported profits, no debt at all, and equipment spending under 2% of sales. That leaves the cash free for acquisitions like SmartCover Systems, bought in 2025 to monitor wastewater and storm drains in real time.

The reason it is a spotlight rather than a ranked buy is the current quarter: revenue and earnings both fell, because customers are working through stock they had over-ordered and cities have paused spending. The judgement offered is conditional — if those problems are temporary, it becomes interesting for long-term investors.


Summary derived from the archived Compounding Quality post (text in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Compounding Quality / Pieter Slegers for source material.