Stance follows the sheet's own advice column: BUY / STRONG BUY → Positive, HOLD → Neutral, and the one name removed from the watchlist → Negative. Watchlist performance-table entries that are not rated Buy are Neutral (they are performance data, not ratings). Each Buy row carries the sheet's key columns: current forward P/E vs its five-year average (and the resulting under/overvaluation), the expected return from the earnings-growth model, and the reverse-DCF difference (expected growth minus the growth the price requires — positive is a margin of safety). Research legend: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis; foreign primary listings keep this source's suffixed row ids with research pointing at the US ADR/OTC line where one exists. One internal contradiction is preserved rather than resolved: Judges Scientific is BUY on the 45-stock sheet and in the body's list of fourteen owned Buys, but HOLD in the portfolio valuation table — and HgCapital Trust is the reverse (BUY in the portfolio table, absent from the body's fourteen). Written post with no timestamps — the At link opens the article.
| Ticker | Name | Research | View | What he said | At |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOI.V | Topicus.com | QT · SA · STK | Positive | STRONG BUY — and the issue's worked example. "5-year Revenue (CAGR): +25.7%. 5-year Operating Profit (CAGR): +20.6%. I expect this company to keep growing by at least 15% per year going forward." The divergence is the pitch: "Since 2021, Topicus doubled its Revenue and Operating Profit… So what if you invested in Topicus during the summer of 2021? Your return would be zero." Now at "one of its cheapest valuation levels ever" — 26.4x forward against a 49.2x five-year average (46.3% under), expected return 14.5%, reverse-DCF margin +4.0pp. "I truly believe Topicus is attractively valued right now." | read ↗ |
| NVO | Novo Nordisk | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | STRONG BUY, and the most undervalued name on the forward-PE screen. "A quality company that has been around since 1923 (!)… currently going through a very tough time. Competition is rising and Eli Lilly's clinical trials are superior to the ones of Novo Nordisk. It results in slower growth ahead and a falling stock price. The current drawdown could provide opportunities… Today, you can buy Novo Nordisk at one of its cheapest valuation levels ever." 11.8x forward against a 27.8x five-year average (57.6% under), the sheet's highest expected return at 20.3%, but a reverse-DCF deficit of −1.4pp — the price already requires 10.0% growth against 8.6% expected. | read ↗ |
| ADYEN.AS | Adyen N.V. | QT · SA · STK | Positive | BUY — the earnings-growth-model spotlight. "A global payment platform that processes online and in-store transactions for businesses and earns a fee on each payment. Adyen is now trading at its cheapest valuation level of the past 10 years." 23.3x forward against a 68.1x five-year average (65.8% under) and the sheet's largest stated undervaluation to fair value at 73.1%, with a +3.7pp reverse-DCF margin. Also the fifth-worst performer on the watchlist year-to-date at −34.8%. | read ↗ |
| BRO | Brown & Brown | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | STRONG BUY. 15.3x forward against a 24.7x five-year average (38.1% under), expected return 14.2%, reverse-DCF margin +4.4pp on 10.2% expected growth. Fair value $100.4 against $68.33. One of the seven Strong Buys in the portfolio. | read ↗ |
| KNSL | Kinsale Capital Group | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | STRONG BUY. 17.6x forward against a 28.6x five-year average (38.5% under), expected return 12.7%, reverse-DCF margin +5.2pp. The strongest ten-year record on the whole Buy sheet at a 34.5% CAGR, against a −9.4% year to date. | read ↗ |
| KPG.AX | Kelly Partners Group Holdings | STK | Positive | STRONG BUY — and the watchlist's worst performer at −40.0% year to date (against a 21.4% five-year CAGR). Note the tension the sheet itself prints: at 30.6x forward against a 29.3x five-year average it is 4.4% above its own history, so the Strong Buy rests on growth (15.0% expected, +5.0pp of reverse-DCF margin) rather than on the multiple. Added to four days earlier at AUD 5.50. | read ↗ |
| CSU.TO | Constellation Software | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | STRONG BUY. 16.6x forward against a 31.5x five-year average (47.3% under) — the sheet's highest expected return among the compounders at 17.3%, with a +11.0pp reverse-DCF margin (4.0% required against 15.0% expected). Fair value $7,015.5 against a $2,595.11 price. Down 19.9% year to date. | read ↗ |
| ZTS | Zoetis Inc. | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | STRONG BUY. 16.8x forward against a 31.7x five-year average (47.0% under), expected return 13.5%, reverse-DCF margin +1.3pp on modest 7.0% expected growth. Bought for the portfolio two weeks earlier. | read ↗ |
| BN | Brookfield Corporation | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | BUY, and named in the conclusion with Topicus as a business "now available at discount prices." Fair value $63.5 against $54.48 (36.0% under on the earnings-growth model), expected return 14.1%, +4.6pp reverse-DCF margin — but note the multiple screen disagrees: 50.0x forward against a 45.0x five-year average is 11.1% expensive. | read ↗ |
| SPGI | S&P Global Inc. | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | UPGRADED Hold → Buy, with Moody's, as the "duopoly in global credit ratings." 19.6x forward against a 29.5x five-year average (23.4% under), expected return 10.5%, +1.5pp reverse-DCF margin. Down 12.2% year to date. | read ↗ |
| MCO | Moody's Corporation | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | UPGRADED Hold → Buy, on the same one-line rationale as S&P Global. 25.9x forward against a 32.7x five-year average (20.8% under) and an expected return of 12.4% — but the reverse DCF dissents by −1.5pp (13.3% required against 11.8% expected), the second-largest deficit on the Buy list. | read ↗ |
| POOL | Pool Corporation | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | UPGRADED Hold → Buy — "a dominant distributor in the swimming pool supply industry." 18.9x forward against a 27.3x five-year average (30.8% under), expected return 13.7%, reverse-DCF essentially balanced at −0.2pp. It had already been a Best Buy in January and March. | read ↗ |
| ADBE | Adobe Inc. | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | BUY, and the sheet's highest expected return at 25.4%. 10.8x forward against a 30.9x five-year average — 65.0% under its own history, the widest multiple gap on the list — with a +9.4pp reverse-DCF margin (2.8% required against 12.2% expected). Down 23.7% year to date. | read ↗ |
| ALRM | Alarm.com Holdings | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | BUY. 16.5x forward against a 33.3x five-year average (50.5% under), expected return 12.3%, +3.8pp reverse-DCF margin — though the fair-value gap is thin at 7.1%. | read ↗ |
| AMP | Ameriprise Financial | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | BUY. The cheapest absolute multiple among the financials at 10.2x forward against an 11.7x five-year average (12.8% under), expected return 11.8%, and the sheet's most comfortable reverse DCF at +7.8pp (1.1% required against 8.9% expected). | read ↗ |
| ADP | Automatic Data Processing | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | BUY. 18.2x forward against a 27.9x five-year average (34.8% under), a 3.1% dividend yield and a 12.9% expected return — but the reverse DCF is marginally negative at −0.4pp on only 6.0% expected growth. Down 17.1% year to date. | read ↗ |
| COLM | Columbia Sportswear | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | BUY. 16.2x forward against a 19.4x five-year average (16.5% under) — one of the narrower cases — with a 12.0% expected return and +4.8pp of reverse-DCF margin, on a −1.0% ten-year CAGR. | read ↗ |
| CMG.TO | Computer Modelling Group | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | BUY — and the only Buy on the sheet whose earnings-growth model says it is overvalued (fair value $3.7 against a $3.9 price, −9.9%). It is carried by the multiple screen instead: 15.2x forward against a 25.4x five-year average, 40.2% under. Expected return 9.2%, the lowest on the list, on 5.0% growth. Down 25.4% year to date and −9.6% over ten years. | read ↗ |
| CPRT | Copart, Inc. | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | BUY. 21.2x forward against a 30.7x five-year average (30.9% under), expected return 13.7%, reverse-DCF margin +1.1pp. A 20.7% ten-year CAGR against a −9.8% year to date. | read ↗ |
| DECK | Deckers Outdoor | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | BUY. 14.1x forward against a 21.3x five-year average (33.8% under), expected return 12.1%, +2.4pp reverse-DCF margin, on the second-best ten-year record on the sheet at 26.4%. | read ↗ |
| DNP.WA | Dino Polska | SA · STK | Positive | BUY. Fair value 87.5 against 41.32 (53.0% under), 18.8x forward against a 24.9x five-year average, expected return 15.6% — and the only holding on the sheet with a positive year to date (+0.8%). A 27.1% ten-year CAGR. The reverse DCF is nearly balanced (+0.9pp) because the price already demands 14.2% growth. | read ↗ |
| DPZ | Domino's Pizza | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | BUY. 19.1x forward against a 27.5x five-year average (30.5% under), fair value $703.4 against $396.2, expected return 15.5% and +3.2pp of reverse-DCF margin. | read ↗ |
| ESQ | Esquire Financial Holdings | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | BUY while trading 34.5% above its own five-year multiple (16.0x against 11.9x) — carried entirely by growth: 13.5% expected EPS growth, a +9.1pp reverse-DCF margin and the best five-year record on the sheet at a 36.8% CAGR. One of only three Buys with a positive year to date (+5.9%). | read ↗ |
| EVO.ST | Evolution AB | QT · SA · STK | Positive | BUY. The cheapest multiple in the portfolio at 9.8x forward against a 15.0x five-year average (34.7% under), on a 5.4% dividend yield, a 16.4% expected return and the widest reverse-DCF margin among the holdings at +9.5pp — the price implies −3.8% growth against 5.7% expected. | read ↗ |
| FTNT | Fortinet, Inc. | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | BUY — the weakest case on the sheet. The only Buy that is overvalued on both the earnings-growth model (fair value $64.8 against $83.2, −29.2%) and the reverse DCF (−3.4pp: 12.0% required against 8.6% expected), with the lowest expected return at 7.4%. It survives on the multiple screen alone — 28.4x forward against a 42.7x five-year average — and it is one of the few Buys actually up on the year (+6.8%). | read ↗ |
| IT | Gartner, Inc. | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | BUY. 12.2x forward against a 33.4x five-year average — 63.5% under, second only to Adobe — with an 18.5% expected return and the sheet's third-widest reverse-DCF margin at +8.8pp (the price implies −0.8% growth). Down 31.7% year to date. | read ↗ |
| HLNE | Hamilton Lane | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | BUY on the lowest growth of any name on the list (3.4%). 15.9x forward against a 25.5x five-year average (37.6% under), but overvalued on the earnings-growth model (−5.1%) and dissenting on the reverse DCF (−3.2pp). Down 26.4% year to date against an 18.8% ten-year CAGR. | read ↗ |
| ICE | Intercontinental Exchange | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | BUY. An exchange operator in the same toll family as MCO and SPGI, but the multiple screen barely helps: 20.9x forward against a 21.9x five-year average, only 4.6% under. Fair value $218 against $160.8 (23.8% under), expected return 12.7%, +2.1pp reverse-DCF margin, and roughly flat on the year (+0.5%). | read ↗ |
| IPAR | Inter Parfums | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | BUY. 18.6x forward against a 26.3x five-year average (29.3% under), a 3.3% yield, a 14.1% expected return and the second-widest reverse-DCF margin on the sheet at +9.9pp — the price implies just 0.1% growth. Up 5.6% year to date. | read ↗ |
| JDG.L | Judges Scientific plc | STK | Positive | BUY on the 45-stock sheet and in the body's list of fourteen owned Buys — but HOLD in the portfolio valuation table. The contradiction is in the issue itself and is left as published. The numbers: 25.0x forward against a 26.8x five-year average (only 6.7% under), a 10.6% expected return and a +7.5pp reverse-DCF margin. Also the tenth-worst watchlist performer year to date at −31.8%. | read ↗ |
| HGT.L | HgCapital Trust | STK | Positive | BUY in the portfolio valuation table — and the one holding valued on NAV rather than earnings: a £4.1 share price against £5.5 of NAV per share, a 25.4% discount, with a 16.8% expected return and 12.0% assumed growth. The reverse-DCF columns are left blank ("/") because the metric does not apply to a trust. Absent from the body's list of fourteen owned Buys, which names Judges Scientific in its place. | read ↗ |
| KNOS.L | Kainos Group plc | STK | Positive | BUY. 17.1x forward against a 28.7x five-year average (40.4% under), a 3.7% yield and the sheet's second-highest expected return at 19.6% — though the reverse DCF is close to balanced (+1.2pp) because the price already requires 10.1% growth. Down 23.8% year to date. | read ↗ |
| KKR | KKR & Co. Inc. | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | BUY. 13.1x forward against a 17.9x five-year average (26.8% under), fair value $118.5 against $89.0, expected return 14.2% and a +8.6pp reverse-DCF margin. Down 31.0% year to date against a 19.7% ten-year CAGR — the sharpest fall-versus-record mismatch on the Buy list. | read ↗ |
| LULU | lululemon athletica | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | BUY. 13.2x forward against a 33.1x five-year average (60.1% under), expected return 16.3%, +4.4pp reverse-DCF margin. The tension the sheet prints without comment: a −12.7% five-year CAGR and −24.4% year to date, i.e. cheap numbers against a broken price trend. | read ↗ |
| MKL | Markel Group | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | BUY on the weakest arithmetic of any name here. Fair value $1,652.2 against a $1,966.7 price (20.0% over), 18.7x forward against an 18.7x five-year average (6.2% over), and an expected return of 7.4% — the joint-lowest on the sheet. Only the +2.3pp reverse-DCF margin supports it. | read ↗ |
| MA | Mastercard Incorporated | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | BUY. 26.0x forward against a 32.6x five-year average (20.2% under), fair value $1,133.2 against $506.6, expected return 15.3% on 15.0% assumed growth — but the reverse DCF is tight at +2.1pp, since the price already requires 12.9%. | read ↗ |
| MELI | MercadoLibre, Inc. | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | BUY. 31.1x forward against a 48.4x five-year average (35.7% under), fair value $2,856 against $1,728.1, expected return 13.0% — and the best ten-year record on the sheet at a 31.2% CAGR. The reverse DCF is thin at +1.9pp: the price demands 13.1% growth. | read ↗ |
| MSCI | MSCI Inc. | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | BUY. 28.3x forward against a 39.6x five-year average (28.5% under), expected return 12.7%, and nearly flat on the year (−0.9%) — but the reverse DCF dissents by −1.2pp, requiring 13.7% growth against 12.5% expected. | read ↗ |
| QLYS | Qualys, Inc. | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | BUY. 12.9x forward against a 30.1x five-year average (57.1% under) on the second-lowest growth assumption on the sheet (4.4%), giving a 13.8% expected return and a marginally negative −0.8pp reverse DCF. Down 27.4% year to date. | read ↗ |
| RH | RH (Restoration Hardware) | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | BUY, and the sheet's widest reverse-DCF margin at +10.5pp — the price implies −0.5% growth against 10.0% expected. 14.4x forward against a 25.8x five-year average (44.2% under), 13.9% expected return. Set against a −22.7% five-year CAGR and −29.6% year to date. | read ↗ |
| SL.MI | Sanlorenzo S.p.A. | STK | Positive | BUY. 21.7x forward against a 14.2x five-year average — the sheet lists it as 26.4% under despite the multiple sitting above its own history, one of several rows where the published columns do not reconcile. Expected return 13.7% on a 3.3% yield and only 3.8% growth; reverse-DCF margin +5.1pp. Down 15.6% year to date. | read ↗ |
| SOON.SW | Sonova Holding AG | QT · SA · STK | Positive | BUY. 9.6x forward against a 25.6x five-year average (32.4% under), an 11.9% expected return on 5.4% growth, and a −0.6pp reverse DCF. The thinnest fair-value gap on the sheet at 3.6%; down 4.0% year to date. | read ↗ |
| SSNC | SS&C Technologies Holdings | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | BUY. The lowest absolute multiple on the sheet at 10.5x forward against a 13.0x five-year average (19.2% under), a 12.3% expected return and +7.0pp of reverse-DCF margin (1.5% required against 8.5% expected). | read ↗ |
| TAM.L | Tatton Asset Management plc | STK | Positive | BUY, and the highest stated undervaluation on the sheet at 76.7% (fair value 25 against a 5.6 price — a row where the two figures do not reconcile as printed). 16.4x forward against a 22.5x five-year average (27.1% under), the sheet's joint-highest expected return at 20.5% on a 4.1% yield, and +7.3pp of reverse-DCF margin. | read ↗ |
| V | Visa Inc. | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | BUY. 23.4x forward against a 28.3x five-year average (17.3% under) — a modest discount by this sheet's standards — with fair value $489.3 against $308.46, a 14.0% expected return and +2.5pp of reverse-DCF margin. | read ↗ |
| XPEL | XPEL, Inc. | QT · SA · STK · FA | Positive | BUY. 18.0x forward against a 32.6x five-year average (44.8% under), fair value $81.3 against $37.5 (50.3% under), a 16.1% expected return and +9.1pp of reverse-DCF margin on 15.0% expected growth. Down 25.4% year to date against a 21.4% ten-year CAGR. | read ↗ |
| FICO | Fair Isaac Corporation | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | UPGRADED Sell → Hold — "a provider of the industry-standard FICO credit score." A ratings step, not a recommendation: it had been passed over at 21.6x 2028 EPS on 2026-MAR-01 and becomes a Best Buy in April. Its forward-PE chart reappears in How To Mentally Handle Tough Times as one of three names "trading at one of their lowest valuation levels ever." | read ↗ |
| EFX | Equifax Inc. | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | UPGRADED Sell → Hold — "one of the three major U.S. credit reporting agencies." Moved in the same breath as FICO, i.e. the whole US credit-data complex is re-rated one notch at once rather than name by name. | read ↗ |
| DFH | Dream Finders Homes | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | DOWNGRADED Buy → Hold — "a fast-growing homebuilder in the US." No reason is given for either this or the Watsco cut, which is the notable asymmetry of the issue: the upgrades and the removal are argued, the downgrades are simply announced. | read ↗ |
| WSO | Watsco, Inc. | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | DOWNGRADED Buy → Hold — "the largest distributor of HVAC equipment and parts in North America." Again no reason given. | read ↗ |
| MEDP | Medpace Holdings | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | HOLD in the portfolio. The reason is visible in the columns: 26.5x forward against a 29.4x five-year average is only 9.9% under, and the reverse-DCF margin is a slim +2.1pp. A holding whose price has caught up with its quality — consistent with it being the book's second-best performer. | read ↗ |
| LVMUY | LVMH (ADR) | QT · SA | Neutral | HOLD in the portfolio (listed as "LVMH Moët Hennessy - Louis Vuitton, Société Européenne"). 20.4x forward against a 24.9x five-year average (18.1% under), fair value 740.4 against 473.15, a 14.4% expected return and a +1.1pp reverse-DCF margin — good numbers that still do not clear the Buy bar in a month of much wider discounts. | read ↗ |
| GAW.L | Games Workshop | QT · SA · STK | Neutral | HOLD — the only holding the sheet marks as outright expensive. 28.7x forward against a 23.0x five-year average is 24.8% over; fair value 137.1 against a 174.5 price (−27.3%); the lowest expected return in the portfolio at 7.8%; and the worst reverse-DCF deficit anywhere in the issue at −7.3pp (14.3% growth required against 7.0% expected). Consistent with it being the book's best performer at +100.8%. | read ↗ |
| NSP | Insperity, Inc. | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Second-worst watchlist performer at −39.1% year to date — and the only name in either performance table with negative CAGRs over both five years (−22.1%) and ten (−0.9%). Not rated Buy; no commentary given. | read ↗ |
| ARES | Ares Management Corporation | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Third-worst watchlist performer at −36.5% year to date, against a 22.5% ten-year CAGR — the widest gap between record and year in the table. An alternative manager falling alongside KKR; not rated Buy and not discussed. | read ↗ |
| GSHD | Goosehead Insurance | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Fourth-worst watchlist performer at −35.8% year to date (five-year CAGR −18.4%, ten-year +11.1%). Not rated Buy; no commentary. | read ↗ |
| TROAX.ST | Troax Group AB | STK | Neutral | Sixth-worst watchlist performer at −32.9% year to date (−16.1% over five years, +10.1% over ten). A Swedish maker of industrial mesh panelling and machine guarding; on the watchlist but not rated Buy, and not discussed in the body. | read ↗ |
| CSGP | CoStar Group, Inc. | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Seventh-worst watchlist performer at −32.6% year to date. A commercial-property data business in the same AI-disruption crossfire as the rest of the data complex, but no view is given. | read ↗ |
| MIPS.ST | Mips AB | STK | Neutral | Eighth-worst watchlist performer at −32.1% year to date, on a 16.2% ten-year CAGR. Not rated Buy this month. | read ↗ |
| EPAM | EPAM Systems, Inc. | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Ninth-worst watchlist performer at −31.9% year to date (−18.2% over five years). Not rated Buy; no commentary. | read ↗ |
| WLK | Westlake Corporation | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Best watchlist performer of the year so far at +50.3% — on the weakest long-run record in the top ten (5.1% over five years, 8.7% over ten). A chemicals cyclical; not rated Buy and not discussed. | read ↗ |
| UI | Ubiquiti Inc. | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Second-best watchlist performer at +39.2% year to date, and the strongest ten-year record in either table at 37.3%. Not rated Buy; no commentary. | read ↗ |
| KEYS | Keysight Technologies | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Third-best watchlist performer at +39.1% year to date (26.3% over ten years). Not rated Buy; no commentary. | read ↗ |
| NOC | Northrop Grumman Corporation | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Fourth-best watchlist performer at +23.6% year to date, on a 20.8% five-year CAGR — a defence prime rising while the issue's own framing notes "the war in the Middle East." Not rated Buy; the connection is not drawn in the text. | read ↗ |
| ASML | ASML Holding | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Fifth-best watchlist performer at +23.0% year to date, with the second-best ten-year record in either table at 30.1%. Not rated Buy this month. | read ↗ |
| ENSG | The Ensign Group, Inc. | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Sixth-best watchlist performer at +21.0% year to date, on strong long-run numbers (19.5% five-year, 26.2% ten-year). A skilled-nursing operator; not rated Buy and not discussed. | read ↗ |
| COST | Costco Wholesale | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Seventh-best watchlist performer at +16.6% year to date, with the best five-year record in either table at 26.3%. Worth reading against 2026-MAR-08, where the same name is flagged as a valuation risk at a 53.7x forward P/E — the performance table and the warning are eleven days apart and describe the same move. | read ↗ |
| GRMN | Garmin Ltd. | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Eighth-best watchlist performer at +16.2% year to date (15.6% five-year, 19.5% ten-year CAGR). Not rated Buy; no commentary. | read ↗ |
| ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Ninth-best watchlist performer at +15.9% year to date, on a 23.0% ten-year CAGR. Not rated Buy this month. | read ↗ |
| NXST | Nexstar Media Group, Inc. | QT · SA · STK · FA | Neutral | Tenth-best watchlist performer at +13.9% year to date (17.3% over ten years). A local-television broadcaster — the least obviously "quality" name in either table — on the watchlist but not rated Buy. | read ↗ |
| GSY.TO | goeasy Ltd. | STK · FA | Negative | REMOVED FROM THE WATCHLIST ENTIRELY — the only such action in the issue. "Goeasy provides loans to non-prime customers in Canada who have been turned down by big banks. We decided to remove the company from our watchlist for 2 main reasons: Both the CEO and CFO left the company in 2025. Governments are capping interest rates. This directly impacts the profitability of goeasy." Two independent problems — a management exodus and a regulatory cap on the product's price — neither of which cheapness can repair. | read ↗ |
Stance follows the sheet's own advice column. The Magnificent Seven (AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA) are named only as the index-concentration statistic and are left to the talking points; Microsoft gets its own full write-up the same day (2026-MAR-19 — Should you buy Microsoft after the decline?). Several rows in the published sheet carry fair-value and price figures in different currencies, so a few "Over/Undervaluation" percentages do not reconcile arithmetically; those are transcribed as printed and flagged. The three-screen method is on the actionable insights page.
A jargon-free summary of the thesis behind the names actually argued in this issue. (Renders on each name's consolidated page.)
Topicus is the European arm of the Constellation model: buy small software companies that run one specific kind of organisation and keep them forever. Over five years its revenue has grown 25.7% a year and its operating profit 20.6% a year, and both have doubled since 2021.
The whole pitch is one sentence: if you had bought in the summer of 2021 your return today would be zero. The business roughly doubled and the share price did not move, which is why the shares now change hands at 26 times expected earnings against a five-year average of 49 — one of the cheapest levels in their history. Two of the three valuation screens agree, and the third (the reverse DCF) still leaves four percentage points of margin between the growth the price assumes and the growth expected.
This is a Strong Buy that publishes its own bear case. Novo Nordisk makes diabetes and obesity drugs, and the problem is stated plainly: Eli Lilly's trial results are better, competition is increasing, and growth will therefore be slower. Nothing here disputes that.
The argument is entirely about price. The shares trade at under 12 times expected earnings against a five-year average of nearly 28 — the widest gap on the whole sheet — with a 4.7% dividend yield on top, which is what produces a modelled 20.3% annual return, the highest of the 45 names. The honest caveat is in the third screen: work backwards from today's price and it already implies 10% annual growth against the 8.6% actually expected. That is the one test the position fails, and it is the same holding that was the portfolio's worst performer a week earlier at −39.5%.
Adyen processes card payments for large merchants and keeps a small slice of each transaction. The shares are down 34.8% this year, which makes it the fifth-worst performer on the watchlist, and they now trade at their cheapest level in a decade.
The scale of the derating is the point: 23 times expected earnings against a five-year average of 68. Even allowing that the earlier multiple was extreme, the model puts fair value at more than three times the current price. Unlike Novo, the reverse DCF here is supportive rather than dissenting — the price implies 10.8% growth against 14.5% expected — so all three screens point the same way. The row uses the Amsterdam ticker; the US ADR is ADYEY.
goeasy lends to Canadians the big banks have turned down. It is removed from the watchlist entirely — not downgraded, deleted — which is the strongest action this monthly sheet takes.
Two reasons are given, and they are independent of each other. Both the chief executive and the chief financial officer left during 2025, so the people who built the underwriting are gone. And governments are capping the interest rates that can be charged on this kind of loan, which attacks the price of the product directly. Neither problem is fixed by the shares getting cheaper: one is about who is running it, the other about what it is legally allowed to earn. That is the distinction this archive keeps returning to — a temporary problem is a discount, a permanent change to the economics is not.
Summary derived from the archived Compounding Quality post (text in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Compounding Quality / Pieter Slegers for source material.