Title: Buy-Hold-Sell List: September 2026 Show: Compounding Quality (Substack, paid post — compoundingquality.net) Guest: Pieter Slegers / Team Compounding Quality (byline "Compounding Quality") Date: 2026-09-17 URL: https://www.compoundingquality.net/p/buy-hold-sell-list-september-2026 Length: written post — no timestamps Note: Paid-subscriber post captured via Stephen's logged-in session (byline SEP 17, 2026; subtitle "Our shopping list"). Body text verbatim; UI chrome removed. Charts noted inline as [Image — ...]. The spreadsheet screenshots are transcribed below as [Table image — ...] blocks read directly from the images: the 10 worst and 10 best YTD performers, the "57 Stocks to Buy" sheet, the three top-ten undervaluation lists (Forward PE, Earnings Growth Model, Reverse DCF) and Our Portfolio's valuation sheet with its per-holding Advice column. The Buy sheet is a dense image; small figures were read at reduced resolution and may carry isolated transcription error. Internal inconsistencies worth flagging: (1) the text says 57 stocks are on Buy, but the Buy-sheet image shows 56 rows, and it omits two holdings that the text lists among the "17 out of the 20 companies that we own [that] are a 'Buy'" (Zoetis and HgCapital Trust); newly-added Intuitive Surgical is not on it either. (2) Thermador's required reverse-DCF growth is 2.4% in the Reverse DCF top-ten and in the prose, but -165.50% on the Buy sheet (the 177.2% "difference" is computed from the latter). (3) The portfolio sheet now lists 20 holdings, not 21 — Novo Nordisk is absent; the post does not mention the sale.
Hi Partner 👋
It’s time to update our watchlist today.
The Buy-Hold-Sell List helps you track Our Investable Universe.
Are there some attractive companies available today? Let’s find out.
Crazy Mr. Market
Have you ever noticed how quickly Wall Street can go from loving a business to writing it off…
And then change its mind?
Earlier this year, Wall Street decided that enterprise software, IT consulting, and accounting were at risk of being replaced by AI.
[Image — headline, Source: Business News Daily]
Here are some statements:
Companies will build their own software and cancel their SaaS subscriptions.
Why pay a consultant when you can just ask AI?
Upload your documents to Claude, and it can prepare your tax return. So what happens to accountants?
Databases like Salesforce will become unnecessary.
Magazines like the Economist had cover stories about AI disrupting jobs:
[Image — magazine cover, Source: The Economist]
Mr. Market panicked and sold off companies like:
ServiceNow: -33.3%
Salesforce: -37.6%
Workday: -39.6%
Accenture: -50.4%
[Image — drawdown chart, Source: Fiscal.ai]
History doesn’t repeat itself. But it often rhymes.
Here’s what happened over the past few months:
ServiceNow: +31% from its lows
Accenture: +44% from its lows
Workday: +50% from its lows
Salesforce: +57% from its lows
[Image — rebound chart, Source: Fiscal.ai]
Did these businesses reinvent themselves in 90 days?
Did their earnings suddenly double overnight?
No. The fundamentals didn’t change.
[Image — earnings chart, Source: Fiscal.ai]
The narrative did.
It’s all about the narrative
Wall Street likes to think it’s full of forward-looking, rational professionals.
But many analysts work backwards:
When a stock price falls, they look for reasons to explain the decline.
When a stock rises, they rewrite their thesis to explain why it was obvious.
Just look at this chart comparing Salesforce’s stock price (red/orange) with analysts’ price targets (blue):
[Image — Salesforce price vs analyst price targets, Source: Fiscal.ai]
When the stock price starts moving up, analysts increase their price targets.
When the stock moves down, the price targets follow it.
Howard Marks has a great quote about how narratives can go from one extreme to the other:
In the real world, things usually oscillate between ‘pretty good’ and ‘just okay.’ But in investing, perception swings from ‘flawless’ to ‘hopeless.’
When a stock price drops 30%, it usually doesn’t mean the business is worth 30% less.
It often just means Mr. Market has changed the story he tells himself about the company.
How stock prices work
You can think of a stock price as two simple pieces:
Stock Price = Earnings Per Share (EPS) x Valuation Multiple
They represent two different things:
EPS shows us how the business is performing.
The multiple shows us how the market feels about the stock.
The fundamentals change slowly
A quality business might grow its earnings by 8–12% a year.
An example?
Rollins has grown its earnings by around 12% a year for a long time:
[Image — Rollins EPS, Source: Fiscal.ai]
That’s an attractive growth rate.
If a business can consistently grow earnings by 12% per year, its earnings will double every 6 years.
An earnings growth of 15% means it doubles every 5 years.
The multiple changes quickly
Market psychology (and the multiple that comes with it) usually changes quickly.
It can swing back and forth like a pendulum.
Rollins has grown its earnings steadily, but Mr. Market has not valued those earnings consistently.
Over the past 10 years, Rollins has traded at multiples ranging from 31x to 89x earnings.
[Image — Rollins P/E history, Source: Fiscal.ai]
In the past year alone, it’s gone from 60x earnings to 31x.
That’s a 50% valuation drop.
[Image — Rollins P/E past year, Source: Fiscal.ai]
Not all drops are created equal
If you only pay attention to the stock price (not the business) you’ll probably have one of two reactions:
See every dip as a buying opportunity.
Assume the market knows something you don’t and panic-sell.
Both reactions are very dangerous.
Why? Because Mr. Market is often irrational in the short term.
When Mr. Market is wrong
A great example of Mr. Market overreacting?
Medpace ($MEDP).
They make money by helping drug and medical device makers test and develop new treatments by managing clinical trials and research.
In April of 2025, their customers were having issues getting funding because multiple factors came together at once:
Higher interest rates
Limited IPOs
Venture capital going to AI companies
Regulatory & policy uncertainty
That pushed the stock price from around $450 to below $300.
[Image — Medpace share price, Source: Fiscal.ai]
But this was a temporary issue.
Companies will always need to develop new drugs and medical devices.
On top of that, FDA rules require them to go through extensive testing.
Medpace continued to grow its EPS and the stock price recovered.
It currently trades near $600/share.
Our investment in Medpace is up +140% since we bought it in October 2023.
Update Buy-Hold-Sell List: September 2026
Let’s now update our Buy-Hold-Sell List.
Worst performers
Here are the 10 worst performers on our watchlist so far this year:
[Table image — 10 worst performers YTD | Company · YTD · 5 Year CAGR · 10 Year CAGR] CoStar Group, Inc. | -54.00% | -19.50% | 3.90% lululemon athletica inc. | -53.70% | -25.50% | 4.00% InfraCom Group AB (publ) | -47.20% | -10.60% | 13.00% Wavestone SA | -45.20% | -7.40% | 4.20% Zoetis Inc. | -42.70% | -18% | 3.70% EPAM Systems, Inc. | -42.20% | -28.40% | 5.60% Kelly Partners Group Holdings Limited | -41.80% | 6.10% | 14.90% Rollins, Inc. | -41.20% | -0.40% | 10.70% Fair Isaac Corporation | -41.00% | 16.90% | 22.50% Admicom Oyj | -39.30% | -21.40% | 11.00%
Best performers
The 10 best performers look as follows:
[Table image — 10 best performers YTD | Company · YTD · 5 Year CAGR · 10 Year CAGR] Fortinet, Inc. | 100.10% | 21.30% | 36.20% LEM Holding SA | 91.70% | -23.90% | -6.50% Keysight Technologies, Inc. | 63.00% | 14% | 27.40% CarMax, Inc. | 57.70% | -14.30% | 0.90% ASML Holding N.V. | 49.90% | 16.10% | 32.20% Arista Networks, Inc. | 48.20% | 54.60% | 44.30% Cactus, Inc. | 45.50% | 14.70% | 15.20% Paycom Software, Inc. | 42.90% | -13.60% | 16.30% Karooooo Ltd. | 42.30% | 18.60% | 12.20% Evolution AB (publ) | 40.20% | -6.90% | 32.60%
Changes in the Buy-Hold-Sell list
Now let’s look into the changes on our watchlist.
We added another amazing company:
Intuitive Surgical ($ISRG): Robotic-assisted surgical systems manufacturer
Two companies went from Hold to Buy:
Thermador Groupe ($THEP): Plumbing, heating, and fluid-control equipment distributor
CTS Eventim ($EVD): Ticketing services and live entertainment management company
Currently there are 57 stocks on ‘Buy’.
This number has never been higher.
You can download the entire Buy-Hold-Sell List here:
Buy-Hold-Sell List
57 Stocks to Buy
You can see all the companies that are on ‘Buy’ here.
(Click on the picture to expand):
[Table image — "57 Stocks to Buy" (56 rows visible) | Company | Sector | Advice | EGM: EPS Growth · Dividend Yield · FWD PE · Fair exit PE · Expected Return · Fair value · Stock price · Over/Undervaluation | Forward PE: Current · 5-yr average · Over/Undervaluation | Reverse DCF: Required growth · Expected growth · Difference | YTD · 5 Year CAGR · 10 Year CAGR] 3i Group plc | Private Equity and Venture Capital firm | BUY | 11.00% · 3.20% · 25.66 · 30.00 · 15.89% · 53.40 · 26.51 · 50.39% | 25.66 · 30.20 · 14.90% | 9.00% · 11.00% · 2.00% | -17.40% · 18.80% · 15.70% Adobe Inc. | Software & IT Services | BUY | 12.30% · 0.00% · 8.50 · 15.00 · 19.95% · 758.30 · 248.16 · 67.28% | 8.50 · 24.00 · 64.60% | -0.10% · 12.30% · 12.40% | -25.50% · -17.40% · 9.60% Adyen N.V. | Financial Technology (Fintech) & Infrastructure | BUY | 15.00% · 0.00% · 24.90 · 25.00 · 15.04% · 1864.90 · 928.70 · 50.20% | 24.90 · 64.30 · 61.30% | 2.50% · 15.00% · 12.50% | -33.50% · -18.90% · 9.00% Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. | Software & IT Services | BUY | 6.90% · 0.00% · 15.90 · 25.00 · 12.62% · 66.30 · 55.22 · 16.68% | 15.90 · 33.30 · 52.30% | 3.50% · 6.90% · 3.40% | 7.80% · -7.30% · 8.40% Alphabet Inc. | Cloud Infrastructure and AI | BUY | 15.00% · 0.30% · 29.90 · 25.00 · 13.66% · 603.70 · 339.36 · 43.79% | 29.90 · 22.40 · -33.50% | 22.30% · 15.00% · -7.30% | 7.60% · 19.00% · 24.50% Ameriprise Financial, Inc. | Banking & Investment Services | BUY | 9.80% · 1.20% · 11.00 · 11.70 · 11.64% · 653.40 · 552.88 · 15.38% | 11.00 · 11.70 · 6.00% | 3.80% · 9.80% · 6.00% | 12.00% · 17.10% · 18.70% Automatic Data Processing, Inc. | Software & IT Services | BUY | 6.03% · 2.60% · 17.30 · 25.00 · 13.08% · 339.20 · 266.87 · 21.32% | 17.30 · 27.90 · 38.00% | 6.70% · 6.00% · -0.70% | 5.50% · 8.30% · 11.90% Berkshire Hathaway Inc. | Consumer Goods Conglomerates | BUY | 8.50% · 0.00% · 23.30 · 20.00 · 7.08% · 567171.50 · 759868.00 · -33.98% | 23.30 · 22.50 · -3.60% | 22.10% · 8.50% · -13.60% | 2.10% · 12.50% · 13.20% Brookfield Corporation | Banking & Investment Services | BUY | 12.00% · 0.70% · 46.00 · 68.00 · 17.48% · 107.60 · 53.14 · 50.62% | 46.00 · 45.00 · -2.20% | 90.60% · 12.00% · -78.60% | -17.10% · 7.90% · 13.20% Brown & Brown, Inc. | Insurance | BUY | 7.20% · 1.00% · 14.60 · 20.00 · 11.90% · 76.30 · 65.75 · 13.86% | 14.60 · 24.70 · 40.90% | 42.10% · 7.20% · -34.90% | -15.30% · 3.50% · 13.50% Columbia Sportswear Company | Cyclical Consumer Products | BUY | 8.00% · 2.10% · 17.40 · 19.40 · 11.25% · 64.00 · 56.85 · 11.21% | 17.40 · 19.40 · 10.30% | 1.50% · 8.00% · 6.50% | 1.50% · -9.80% · 0.50% Computer Modelling Group Ltd. | Software & IT Services | BUY | 5.00% · 1.10% · 13.60 · 20.00 · 10.81% · 4.00 · 3.80 · 5.48% | 13.60 · 25.40 · 46.50% | 0.20% · 5.00% · 4.80% | -28.00% · -1.10% · -8.70% Constellation Software Inc. | Software & IT Services | BUY | 15.00% · 0.20% · 15.80 · 20.00 · 17.86% · 7415.10 · 2811.82 · 62.08% | 15.80 · 31.50 · 49.80% | 8.10% · 15.00% · 6.90% | -13.20% · 5.80% · 17.70% Copart, Inc. | Software & IT Services | BUY | 11.90% · 0.00% · 20.90 · 25.00 · 13.86% · 45.60 · 30.90 · 32.28% | 20.90 · 30.70 · 31.90% | 7.90% · 11.90% · 4.00% | -18.20% · -2.80% · 17.40% CTS Eventim AG & Co. KGaA | Software & IT Services | BUY | 7.70% · 2.60% · 17.00 · 20.00 · 12.06% · 69.00 · 56.85 · 17.55% | 17.00 · 27.10 · 37.30% | -3.40% · 7.70% · 11.10% | -26.90% · 1.30% · 6.80% Deckers Outdoor Corporation | Cyclical Consumer Products | BUY | 7.00% · 0.00% · 14.00 · 21.30 · 12.21% · 95.50 · 81.61 · 14.55% | 14.00 · 21.30 · 34.30% | -1.60% · 7.00% · 8.60% | -23.60% · 3.20% · 23.70% Domino's Pizza, Inc. | Cyclical Consumer Services | BUY | 9.40% · 2.50% · 19.10 · 25.00 · 14.99% · 508.30 · 314.54 · 38.12% | 19.10 · 27.50 · 30.50% | 4.80% · 9.40% · 4.60% | -26.00% · -8.00% · 7.70% Esquire Financial Holdings, Inc. | Banking & Investment Services | BUY | 13.50% · 0.60% · 16.00 · 15.00 · 13.48% · 190.20 · 119.71 · 37.07% | 16.00 · 11.90 · -34.50% | 5.30% · 13.50% · 8.20% | 18.20% · 35.70% · 25.00% Evolution AB (publ) | Cyclical Consumer Services | BUY | 5.70% · 5.00% · 11.00 · 15.00 · 14.34% · 1283.30 · 875.20 · 31.80% | 11.00 · 15.00 · 26.70% | 74.60% · 5.70% · -68.90% | 40.20% · -6.90% · 32.60% Fair Isaac Corporation | Software & IT Services | BUY | 10.00% · 0.00% · 22.70 · 25.00 · 11.01% · 1067.00 · 968.82 · 9.20% | 22.70 · 40.90 · 44.50% | 11.60% · 10.00% · -1.60% | -41.00% · 16.90% · 22.50% Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited | Financial Holdings | BUY | 11.00% · 0.90% · 9.10 · 8.00 · 10.69% · 2427.20 · 2236.39 · 7.86% | 9.10 · 8.00 · -13.80% | 18.30% · 11.00% · -7.30% | -14.20% · 34.50% · 11.60% Fortinet, Inc. | Software & IT Services | BUY | 12.00% · 0.00% · 28.90 · 25.00 · 10.65% · 168.50 · 155.83 · 7.52% | 28.90 · 42.70 · 32.30% | 18.30% · 12.00% · -6.30% | 100.10% · 21.30% · 36.20% Gartner, Inc. | Software & IT Services | BUY | 8.00% · 0.00% · 11.40 · 25.00 · 19.93% · 319.00 · 174.57 · 45.28% | 11.40 · 33.40 · 65.90% | -2.40% · 8.00% · 10.40% | -26.40% · -10.80% · 6.90% Hamilton Lane Incorporated | Banking & Investment Services | BUY | 3.40% · 2.50% · 15.10 · 25.00 · 12.46% · 114.20 · 97.28 · 14.84% | 15.10 · 25.50 · 40.80% | 4.90% · 3.40% · -1.50% | -28.80% · 3.90% · 19.30% Hermès International Société en commandite par actions | Cyclical Consumer Products | BUY | 11.90% · 1.30% · 35.70 · 25.00 · 10.20% · 1441.20 · 1399.50 · 2.90% | 35.70 · 48.30 · 26.10% | 17.30% · 11.90% · -5.40% | -32.90% · 2.90% · 13.80% Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. | Banking & Investment Services | BUY | 12.00% · 1.30% · 19.50 · 21.90 · 14.53% · 263.30 · 157.10 · 40.34% | 19.50 · 21.90 · 11.00% | 8.10% · 12.00% · 3.90% | -1.80% · 7.20% · 10.80% Interparfums, Inc. | Personal & Household Products & Services | BUY | 10.00% · 2.90% · 18.60 · 20.00 · 13.65% · 168.10 · 111.02 · 33.97% | 18.60 · 26.30 · 29.30% | 3.3% · 10.0% · 6.7% | 29.90% · 12.20% · 13.00% Kainos Group plc | Software & IT Services | BUY | 11.90% · 2.50% · 17.10 · 25.00 · 19.02% · 31.00 · 11.86 · 61.70% | 17.10 · 28.70 · 40.40% | 14.60% · 11.90% · -2.70% | 19.50% · -7.40% · 21.40% Karooooo Ltd. | Software & IT Services | BUY | 9.60% · 2.30% · 21.70 · 23.00 · 12.50% · 83.20 · 63.55 · 23.58% | 21.70 · 23.00 · 5.70% | -33.20% · 9.60% · 42.80% | 42.30% · 18.60% · 12.20% Kelly Partners Group Holdings Limited | Industrial & Commercial Services | BUY | 12.00% · 0.00% · 18.10 · 25.00 · 15.81% · 8.40 · 4.89 · 42.08% | 18.10 · 29.30 · 38.20% | -9.50% · 12.00% · 21.50% | -41.80% · 6.10% · 14.90% Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | Insurance | BUY | 11.00% · 0.30% · 17.20 · 20.00 · 12.93% · 478.90 · 358.34 · 25.18% | 17.20 · 28.60 · 39.90% | -5.80% · 11.00% · 16.80% | -8.70% · 16.90% · 33.30% KKR & Co. Inc. | Banking & Investment Services | BUY | 9.75% · 0.80% · 16.20 · 17.90 · 11.60% · 119.50 · 102.22 · 14.47% | 16.20 · 17.90 · 9.50% | 3.60% · 9.80% · 6.20% | -20.70% · 11.00% · 21.50% lululemon athletica inc. | Cyclical Consumer Products | BUY | 7.40% · 0.00% · 11.20 · 25.00 · 19.72% · 172.90 · 97.58 · 43.55% | 11.20 · 33.10 · 66.20% | -2.50% · 7.40% · 9.90% | -53.70% · -25.50% · 4.00% Markel Group Inc. | Insurance | BUY | 12.00% · 0.00% · 18.70 · 17.60 · 11.41% · 2092.90 · 1778.97 · 15.00% | 18.70 · 17.60 · -6.20% | -5.50% · 12.00% · 17.50% | -16.50% · 7.40% · 6.70% Mastercard Incorporated | Software & IT Services | BUY | 15.00% · 0.60% · 26.80 · 25.00 · 14.93% · 1201.90 · 566.89 · 52.83% | 26.80 · 32.60 · 17.80% | 13.80% · 15.00% · 1.20% | 0.70% · 10.90% · 19.00% Medpace Holdings, Inc. | Pharmaceuticals & Medical Research | BUY | 12.00% · 0.00% · 29.70 · 25.00 · 10.42% · 623.30 · 592.41 · 4.96% | 29.70 · 29.40 · -1.00% | 13.30% · 12.00% · -1.30% | 3.70% · 26.10% · 34.80% MercadoLibre, Inc. | Software & IT Services | BUY | 15.00% · 0.00% · 36.30 · 25.00 · 11.89% · 2636.60 · 1914.16 · 27.40% | 36.30 · 48.40 · 25.00% | -0.90% · 15.00% · 15.90% | -3.00% · 0.70% · 26.90% Microsoft Corporation | Software & IT Services | BUY | 15.00% · 0.70% · 24.50 · 25.00 · 15.90% · 1173.80 · 494.65 · 57.86% | 24.50 · 30.10 · 18.60% | 18.00% · 15.00% · -3.00% | 4.60% · 12% · 24.20% Mips AB (publ) | Cyclical Consumer Products | BUY | 15.00% · 0.70% · 30.50 · 25.00 · 13.90% · 705.30 · 370.00 · 47.54% | 30.50 · 59.60 · 48.80% | 24.80% · 15.00% · -9.80% | 8.80% · -16.00% · 23.10% Moody's Corporation | Industrial & Commercial Services | BUY | 11.50% · 0.90% · 27.60 · 25.00 · 11.46% · 561.30 · 470.93 · 16.10% | 27.60 · 32.70 · 15.60% | 12.90% · 11.50% · -1.40% | -5.60% · 5.30% · 15.90% MSCI Inc. | Industrial & Commercial Services | BUY | 12.50% · 1.50% · 29.20 · 25.00 · 12.56% · 788.10 · 552.28 · 29.92% | 29.20 · 39.60 · 26.30% | 13.10% · 12.50% · -0.60% | -2.30% · -1.90% · 20.60% Napco Security Technologies, Inc. | Technology Equipment | BUY | 12.90% · 1.90% · 30.50 · 25.00 · 13.00% · 57.00 · 36.16 · 36.56% | 30.50 · 29.00 · -5.20% | 11.00% · 12.90% · 1.90% | -12.60% · 11.50% · 27.00% Pool Corporation | Cyclical Consumer Products | BUY | 8.12% · 3.00% · 21.20 · 25.00 · 12.91% · 232.50 · 175.07 · 24.71% | 21.20 · 27.30 · 22.30% | 5.50% · 8.10% · 2.60% | -23.80% · -17.00% · 6.40% Qualys, Inc. | Software & IT Services | BUY | 4.41% · 0.00% · 12.10 · 25.00 · 15.07% · 199.40 · 150.48 · 24.54% | 12.10 · 30.10 · 59.80% | 10.70% · 4.40% · -6.30% | 14.90% · 4.80% · 15.50% RH | Retailers | BUY | 11.00% · 0.00% · 25.00 · 25.00 · 11.00% · 148.50 · 133.69 · 10.00% | 25.00 · 25.80 · 3.10% | 3.20% · 11.00% · 7.80% | -30.90% · -28.20% · 14.10% S&P Global Inc. | Industrial & Commercial Services | BUY | 11.50% · 0.90% · 22.30 · 25.00 · 13.61% · 607.40 · 411.76 · 32.21% | 22.30 · 29.50 · 24.40% | 10.40% · 11.50% · 1.10% | -19.70% · 0.20% · 12.90% Sanlorenzo S.p.A. | Cyclical Consumer Products | BUY | 6.00% · 2.70% · 10.90 · 14.20 · 11.73% · 44.10 · 38.28 · 13.26% | 10.90 · 14.20 · 23.20% | 2.40% · 6.00% · 3.60% | 26.10% · 5.90% · 13.80% Sonova Holding AG | Healthcare Services & Equipment | BUY | 5.40% · 2.00% · 19.60 · 25.00 · 10.16% · 229.00 · 226.20 · 1.22% | 19.60 · 25.60 · 23.40% | 9.50% · 5.40% · -4.10% | 8.60% · -7.10% · 5.40% SS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc. | Software & IT Services | BUY | 10.50% · 1.40% · 10.30 · 13.00 · 14.52% · 124.40 · 79.85 · 35.82% | 10.30 · 13.00 · 20.80% | 2.20% · 10.50% · 8.30% | -6.90% · 3.50% · 10% Tatton Asset Management plc | Banking & Investment Services | BUY | 10.00% · 4.50% · 16.40 · 20.00 · 16.70% · 14.90 · 6.72 · 54.90% | 16.40 · 22.50 · 27% | 7.10% · 10.00% · 2.90% | 1.20% · 2.70% · -0.80% Teqnion AB (publ) | Industrial Goods | BUY | 12.50% · 0.00% · 31.40 · 25.00 · 10.46% · 197.20 · 185.80 · 5.80% | 31.40 · 45.30 · 30.70% | 12.00% · 12.50% · 0.50% | 5.00% · 12.40% · 23.80% Thermador Groupe SA | Industrial Goods | BUY | 11.70% · 2.90% · 12.90 · 14.60 · 15.92% · 149.40 · 71.30 · 52.29% | 12.90 · 14.60 · 11.60% | -165.50% · 11.70% · 177.20% | -9.50% · -3.30% · 6.00% Topicus.com Inc. | Software & IT Services | BUY | 15.00% · 0.00% · 25.60 · 25.00 · 14.77% · 183.30 · 93.83 · 48.80% | 25.60 · 49.20 · 48.00% | 8.30% · 15.00% · 6.70% | -25.00% · 12.70% · 7.30% TransDigm Group Incorporated | Industrial Goods | BUY | 10.70% · 8.00% · 30.80 · 25.00 · 16.82% · 7073.20 · 1132.85 · 83.98% | 30.80 · 34.70 · 11.20% | 13.70% · 10.70% · -3.00% | -16.60% · 12.70% · 14.90% Visa Inc. | Industrial & Commercial Services | BUY | 13.50% · 0.70% · 23.40 · 25.00 · 14.88% · 680.50 · 369.42 · 45.71% | 23.40 · 28.30 · 17.30% | 0.00% · 13.50% · 13.50% | 6.60% · 11.30% · 16.20% XPEL, Inc. | Automobiles & Auto Parts | BUY | 15.00% · 0.00% · 22.00 · 20.00 · 14.09% · 87.90 · 48.35 · 45.00% | 22.00 · 32.60 · 32.50% | 3.80% · 15.00% · 11.20% | -3.80% · -10.30% · 35.50%
17 out of the 20 companies that we own are a ‘Buy’ right now:
Medpace Holdings ($MEDP)
Evolution AB ($EVO)
Kelly Partners Group ($KPG)
Brown & Brown ($BRO)
Kinsale Capital ($KNSL)
Interparfums ($IPAR)
Ameriprise Financial ($AMP)
Visa ($V)
Topicus ($TOI)
HgCapital Trust ($HGT)
Constellation Software ($CSU)
Brookfield Corporation ($BN)
Zoetis ($ZTS)
3i Group ($III)
KKR & Co. ($KKR)
S&P Global ($SPGI)
Fairfax Financial ($FFH)
I truly believe some great opportunities can be found in the list above.
1️⃣ Forward P/E
Here are the most undervalued companies based on the Forward P/E:
[Table image — Forward PE top ten | Company · Current Forward PE · Average Forward PE past 5 years · Over/Undervaluation] Goosehead Insurance, Inc. | 20.80 | 76.00 | 72.60% Paycom Software, Inc. | 12.20 | 43.80 | 72.10% EPAM Systems, Inc. | 8.80 | 30.80 | 71.40% Paylocity Holding Corporation | 13.70 | 42.70 | 67.90% lululemon athletica inc. | 11.20 | 33.10 | 66.20% Gartner, Inc. | 11.40 | 33.40 | 65.90% CoStar Group, Inc. | 25.20 | 73.20 | 65.60% CorVel Corporation | 30.10 | 87.00 | 65.40% Adobe Inc. | 8.50 | 24.00 | 64.60% Adyen N.V. | 24.90 | 64.30 | 61.30%
Gartner is currently trading near its lowest valuation level in a decade.
They are the world’s leading IT research and advisory company.
Gartner sells annual, subscription-based contracts to management teams.
A subscription gets them access to proprietary data, independent research reports, decision frameworks (like the Magic Quadrant), and direct advisory calls with industry analysts.
Gartner’s forward P/E has compressed to 11.3x, representing a 65% discount compared to its 5-year average of 33x.
[Image — Gartner forward P/E, Source: Fiscal.ai]
The market worries that companies will cut their IT budgets and that AI models will make enterprise software research less valuable.
But Gartner helps companies choose the right AI models and figure out how to use their data.
[Image — Gartner AI advisory slide, Source: Gartner Investor Relations]
Management is guiding for higher FCF this year, and they plan to use a lot of that to repurchase shares.
[Image — Gartner FCF guidance / buybacks slide, Source: Gartner Investor Relations]
2️⃣ Earnings Growth Model
Here are the most undervalued companies based on our Earnings Growth Model:
[Table image — Earnings Growth Model top ten | Company · EPS Growth · Dividend Yield · FWD PE · Fair exit PE · Expected Return] Marimekko Oyj | 9.50% | 4.60% | 15.00 | 25.00 | 20.77% FactSet Research Systems Inc. | 6.90% | 1.80% | 11.50 | 25.00 | 20.44% Enghouse Systems Limited | 1.80% | 7.90% | 12.30 | 25.00 | 20.03% Adobe Inc. | 12.30% | 0.00% | 8.50 | 15.00 | 19.95% Gartner, Inc. | 8.00% | 0.00% | 11.40 | 25.00 | 19.93% Ares Management Corporation | 12.00% | 4.10% | 18.20 | 25.00 | 19.84% lululemon athletica inc. | 7.40% | 0.00% | 11.20 | 25.00 | 19.72% Paycom Software, Inc. | 12.30% | 0.70% | 12.20 | 20.00 | 19.39% TransUnion | 13.90% | 0.60% | 14.70 | 21.80 | 19.33% Kainos Group plc | 11.90% | 2.50% | 17.10 | 25.00 | 19.02%
Let’s highlight TransUnion today.
It’s a global consumer credit bureau and identity verification company.
Investors worry that a weaker economy could reduce consumer borrowing and mortgage activity.
There’s also uncertainty about future credit score requirements for mortgages, following comments from FHFA Chairman Bill Pulte.
[Image — post on X by @pulte, 9 Sep 2026: meeting with all three credit bureaus (Experian, Equifax, TransUnion), "focused on lowering costs while also studying using only a single credit report and bi-merge credit reporting. Stay tuned."]
But TransUnion is still active in an oligopoly together with Equifax and Experian.
This is very attractive.
On top of this, they recently raised their guidance:
[Image — TransUnion raised guidance, Source: TransUnion Investor Relations]
3️⃣ Reverse DCF
Here’s a list of the most undervalued companies based on Our Reverse DCF:
[Table image — Reverse DCF top ten | Company · Required growth reverse DCF · Expected growth · Difference] Thermador Groupe SA | 2.40% | 11.70% | 177.20% Karooooo Ltd. | -33.20% | 9.60% | 42.80% CorVel Corporation | -30.60% | 12.00% | 42.60% Nexstar Media Group, Inc. | -21.70% | 10.00% | 31.70% Kelly Partners Group Holdings Limited | -9.50% | 12.00% | 21.50% Ares Management Corporation | -5.50% | 12.00% | 17.50% Markel Group Inc. | -5.50% | 12.00% | 17.50% InfraCom Group AB (publ) | -8.20% | 9.00% | 17.20% Equasens Société anonyme | -4.20% | 12.70% | 16.90% Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | -5.80% | 11.00% | 16.80%
The market currently has very low expectations for Thermador Groupe.
It’s a French distributor of specialized plumbing, heating, valves, and fluid-control equipment.
The market is pessimistic about European construction activity and slowing renovation subsidies.
That’s why it’s only pricing in 2.4% FCF growth for the next 10 years.
This might be too pessimistic.
As you can see in the chart below, Thermador is growing organically again:
[Image — Thermador organic growth, Source: Thermador Investor Relations]
Analysts expect Free Cash Flow to start growing again in 2027:
[Image — Thermador FCF estimates, Source: Fiscal.ai]
Our Portfolio
Here’s what the valuation for our Portfolio looks like:
[Table image — Our Portfolio valuation sheet (20 holdings) | Company | Advice | EGM: EPS Growth · Dividend Yield · FWD PE · Fair exit PE · Expected Return · Fair value · Stock price · Over/Undervaluation | Forward PE: Current · 5-yr average · Over/Undervaluation | Reverse DCF: Required growth · Expected growth · Difference] Medpace Holdings, Inc. | BUY | 12.0% · 0.0% · 29.7 · 25.0 · 10.4% · 623.3 · 592.4 · 5.0% | 29.7 · 29.4 · -1.0% | 13.3% · 12.0% · -1.3% Evolution AB (publ) | BUY | 5.7% · 5.0% · 11 · 15.0 · 14.3% · 1283.3 · 875.2 · 31.8% | 11 · 15.0 · 26.7% | 74.6% · 5.7% · -68.9% Kelly Partners Group Holdings Limited | STRONG BUY | 12.0% · 0.0% · 18.1 · 25.0 · 15.8% · 8.4 · 4.9 · 42.1% | 18.1 · 29.3 · 38.2% | -9.5% · 12.0% · 21.5% Brown & Brown, Inc. | STRONG BUY | 7.2% · 1.0% · 14.6 · 20.0 · 11.9% · 76.3 · 65.8 · 13.9% | 14.6 · 24.7 · 40.9% | 42.1% · 7.2% · -34.9% LVMH Moët Hennessy - Louis Vuitton, Société Européenne | HOLD | 9.6% · 3.2% · 19.9 · 24.9 · 15.3% · 721.7 · 415.3 · 42.5% | 19.9 · 24.9 · 20.1% | 4.6% · 9.6% · 5.0% Games Workshop Group PLC | HOLD | 7.0% · 2.8% · 33.1 · 23.0 · 6.7% · 120.2 · 176.5 · -46.8% | 33.1 · 23.0 · -43.9% | 15.5% · 7.0% · -8.5% Dino Polska S.A. | HOLD | 12.0% · 0.0% · 17.7 · 20.0 · 13.3% · 50.0 · 35.4 · 29.2% | 17.7 · 24.9 · 28.9% | 5.8% · 12.0% · 6.2% Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | STRONG BUY | 11.0% · 0.3% · 17.2 · 20.0 · 12.9% · 478.9 · 358.3 · 25.2% | 17.2 · 28.6 · 39.9% | -5.8% · 11.0% · 16.8% Interparfums, Inc. | BUY | 10.0% · 2.9% · 18.6 · 20.0 · 13.7% · 168.1 · 111.0 · 34.0% | 18.6 · 26.3 · 29.3% | 3.3% · 10.0% · 6.7% Ameriprise Financial, Inc. | BUY | 9.8% · 1.2% · 11 · 11.7 · 11.6% · 653.4 · 552.9 · 15.4% | 11 · 11.7 · 6.0% | 3.8% · 9.8% · 6.0% Visa Inc. | BUY | 13.5% · 0.7% · 23.4 · 25.0 · 14.9% · 680.5 · 369.4 · 45.7% | 23.4 · 28.3 · 17.3% | 0.0% · 13.5% · 13.5% Topicus.com Inc. | STRONG BUY | 15.0% · 0.0% · 25.6 · 25.0 · 14.8% · 183.3 · 93.8 · 48.8% | 25.6 · 49.2 · 48.0% | 8.3% · 15.0% · 6.7% HgCapital Trust | BUY | 12.0% · 1.1% · 3.88 (stock price) · 5.6 (NAV per share) · 16.2% · 5.6 (NAV per share) · 3.9 · 31.0% | 3.88 (stock price) · 5.6 (NAV per share) · 31.0% | / · / · / Constellation Software Inc. | STRONG BUY | 15.0% · 0.2% · 15.8 · 20.0 · 17.9% · 7415.1 · 2811.8 · 62.1% | 15.8 · 31.5 · 49.8% | 8.1% · 15.0% · 6.9% Brookfield Corporation | STRONG BUY | 12.0% · 0.7% · 46 · 68.0 · 17.5% · 107.6 · 53.1 · 50.6% | 46 · 45.0 · -2.2% | 90.6% · 12.0% · -78.6% Zoetis Inc. | BUY | 7.0% · 2.9% · 16.2 · 25.0 · 15.3% · 109.7 · 72.1 · 34.2% | 16.2 · 31.7 · 48.9% | -0.5% · 7.0% · 7.5% 3i Group plc | BUY | 11.0% · 3.2% · 25.7 · 30.0 · 15.9% · 53.4 · 26.5 · 50.4% | 25.7 · 30.2 · 14.9% | 9.0% · 11.0% · 2.0% KKR & Co. Inc. | BUY | 9.8% · 0.8% · 16.2 · 17.9 · 11.6% · 119.5 · 102.2 · 14.5% | 16.2 · 17.9 · 9.5% | 3.6% · 9.8% · 6.2% S&P Global Inc. | STRONG BUY | 11.5% · 0.9% · 22.3 · 25.0 · 13.6% · 607.4 · 411.8 · 32.2% | 22.3 · 29.5 · 24.4% | 10.4% · 11.5% · 1.1% Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited | BUY | 11.0% · 0.9% · 9.1 · 8.0 · 10.7% · 2427.2 · 2236.4 · 7.9% | 9.1 · 8.0 · -13.8% | 18.3% · 11.0% · -7.3%
There are Seven Strong Buys in our Portfolio today:
Kelly Partners Group ($KPG)
Brown & Brown ($BRO)
Kinsale Capital ($KNSL)
Topicus ($TOI)
Constellation Software ($CSU)
Brookfield ($BN)
S&P Global ($SPGI)
Conclusion
That’s it for today.
Hopefully this Buy-Hold-Sell list can help you finding attractive investment opportunities.
As a reminder, you can download the entire list here:
Buy-Hold-Sell List
Everything In Life Compounds Team Compounding Quality
Book
Order your copy of The Art of Quality Investing here
Used sources
Interactive Brokers: Portfolio data and executing all transactions
Fiscal.ai: Financial data