| Account | Shares | Price | Value | % of acct | Cost/sh | Gain $ | Gain % | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RLT | 100 | $13.36 | $1,336 | 0.08% | $10.82 | $254 | +23.5% | — |
In short: Buying a partial position; moved back up to the Buy List, "though not as a Strong Buy." "One of the most mercurial companies we've brought to your attention" — Buy at 18 (Apr 2025), DCA'd down to a ~8 ¾ bottom, Hold near $12 in January, Trim on May 15 near $19, now crashed sub-$12 on removal from S&P Small Cap Growth indexes — "ironic because it was S&P's inclusion in those same indices that created an artificial lift in late 2024" into deteriorating fundamentals, "a great time to ring the cash register." "Today, it's almost the inverse situation": the leading Permian frac-sand provider ("you simply can't produce shale crude without frac sand"), volumes recovering with pricing still soft, into "the unprecedented oil shortage which has developed — and is worsening, despite the various peace treaty head fakes." The Dune Express conveyor ("none of its competitors have anything like this") and a near-duopoly frac-sand market imply "very strong pricing power in the next up-cycle," plus a "growing power supply business."
Atlas Energy Solutions sells frac sand — the ordinary-looking sand that gets pumped underground at enormous pressure to prop open cracks in shale rock so oil can flow out. Most US oil now comes from shale, so no sand means no barrels. Atlas is the biggest supplier in the Permian Basin, the country's most important oil field, and it owns something no rival has: the Dune Express, a long conveyor belt that carries sand most of the way to the well sites instead of trucking it, which cuts costs (and truck accidents). With only about two real players left in the business, Hay expects strong pricing power the next time drilling activity picks up.
The stock has been a roller coaster, and this note is unusually candid about it: recommended at 18 in April 2025, bought down in stages to a bottom near 8¾, moved to a hold near $12 in January after a tax-loss-selling rebound Hay correctly predicted, then it ran to nearly $19 by May, where he told readers to trim. It has since collapsed back below $12. The trigger was mechanical rather than fundamental — S&P kicked it out of several small-cap growth indexes, which forces index funds to sell no matter what the business is doing. Hay points out the delicious symmetry: the same indexes added the stock in late 2024, which artificially pushed it to $24 even as the business was deteriorating — the perfect moment to sell. Now the opposite is happening: forced selling into an improving outlook.
His fundamental case is that oil is genuinely short — "the unprecedented oil shortage which has developed — and is worsening, despite the various peace treaty head fakes" — so drilling, and therefore sand demand, should accelerate; volumes are already recovering even though prices per ton are still weak. The known risk is that competitor Liberty Energy just posted a bad quarter and the market assumes Atlas will do the same, but after a 40%-plus fall Hay thinks that is already in the price. He is buying a partial position (not a full one) and moving Atlas back onto the Buy List — a Buy, not a Strong Buy.
In short: Tax-loss-package recap (Dec-1-2025 trade) — Atlas Energy Solutions is "staying on our recommended list at this time," one of the package winners alongside SLB. Held, no trim suggested (unlike SLB).
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