In short: News mention ("Stocks I'm Watching"): chip makers higher as the AI trade keeps finding strength after last week's renewed rally.
In short: Named by Ethridge (9:02) among the original AI-chip leaders before the trade broadened into memory; he sees the next rotation going to the hyperscalers instead.
In short: Named in the same bottoming cluster as Nvidia — "also Nvidia, AMD, couple of other semi names — I'm seeing some charts that are bottoming interestingly enough" — with no separate thesis, and offset by the sector-level call that "semis, healthcare and financials are topping right now."
AMD is Nvidia's main competitor in high-end processors, including the accelerator chips used for AI workloads.
It is named once, inside the same sentence as Nvidia, as one of the semiconductor charts that "are bottoming interestingly enough." There is no separate argument for it, and it inherits the same offsetting problem: the sector it sits in is one of the three he reads as topping.
Treat it as a technical observation with a short shelf life, not a position.
8:49On the Macro Dirt podcast that I do with Tony Greer, I talked about financials topping a couple weeks ago. I talked about how JP Morgan was a pretty good short. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo all look like they're topping. Healthcare, Johnson and Johnson, and also Nvidia, AMD, couple of other semi names — I'm seeing some charts that are bottoming interestingly enough.
In short: Named once, inside Lebenthal's supply-versus-competition argument: "if there is competition, say from AMD versus Broadcom, particularly with the Alphabet partnership, then it really doesn't matter. The competition doesn't matter because there's enough of this pie and it's growing big enough to satisfy everyone." Cited as the competitive threat that the supply-constraint thesis is meant to neutralise; no position or stance was given.
AMD appears once, as the named competitive threat to Broadcom in the custom-AI-chip market. Lebenthal's argument is that the threat does not matter if the industry is supply-constrained — when nobody can build enough, a rival winning a design does not take away a sale you could have made. No view was given on AMD itself.
In short: Carlson analogy: "AMD did not need to go up as much as Nvidia for it to be a great buy" — the catch-up-play template he applies to Zeta vs Palantir.
In short: The fourth name in BMO's semiconductor initiation — outperform, $550 target, 17% upside — and otherwise only referenced by Brown as one of the AI names whose story the market already knows ("we know Micron, we know AMD, etcetera"). No committee position or argument on it this episode.
In short: Named first when pressed for specific vulnerable names: "if you look at AMD and Intel and Nvidia, all of those have that same characteristic. They've been run up, a lot of money going into them pushed them much higher than they have been." Semis took "all the new money… the last six months."
AMD designs processors and AI accelerators and is the first name he gives when pressed for specifics. His objection isn't to the company's products; it is that "all the new money went the last six months" into this group, pushing prices "much higher than they have been."
The pattern he's describing is a crowded trade: when a sector absorbs the marginal buyer's cash, there is nobody left to push it higher and the same flow reverses violently. "These semiconductors can really correct on you in a big big way."
9:16But any particular stocks in that space, any particular names? — Well, all of the ones in the group itself. If you look at AMD and Intel and Nvidia, all of those have that same characteristic. They've been run up, a lot of money going into them pushed them much higher than they have been, and really Intel hadn't gone up much at all until this last run.
In short: The alternative-compute leg of the broadening. AMD appeared among top-five buys at three funds — with AMAT and MU, and ahead of NVDA's single appearance. Sits inside the quarter's defining sentence: "AI infrastructure broadened beyond NVIDIA."
AMD is the main listed alternative to NVIDIA in AI accelerators, as well as a serious competitor in the ordinary server processors that sit beside them.
It was a top-five buy at three funds — more buying attention than NVIDIA itself received in the quarter, which is the point rather than a claim that AMD is the better business.
The pattern is what to take away: when a market leader's position is fully priced, institutional money often looks for the credible second source. That is a positioning decision about valuation and crowding, not a technology call.
In short: Half of the supply constraint driving the capex race: "Nvidia and AMD are the biggest producers… in terms of GPUs, there's a limited amount of supply and the AI sector is growing so quickly."
20:092 trillion next year, which is double the estimate they had last year. So, the question is like why is AI compute spend so vociferous? And the reason why is that there's just a lack of supply, right? Nvidia and AMD are the biggest producers. I know Amazon has its TPUs and Google has its TPUs, but in terms of GPUs, there's a limited amount of supply and the AI sector is growing so quickly.
In short: "AMD basically scared the market with higher capex, reporting a strong 2Q26 with revenue +50% y/y to $11.5B and adjusted EPS +246% to $1.66 — and the market still didn't appreciate it." Data-center revenue +107% to $6.2B, adjusted EBITDA $3.3B, free cash flow $1.6B on $808M of capex, with Helios racks beginning to ramp alongside Nvidia's Rubin in Q4 (Bernstein sees 15-22% AI-server CAGR to 2028).
AMD reported revenue up 50% and profits up 246%, with its data-centre business more than doubling, and the market ignored it — spooked instead by higher planned capital spending. Singh's note is simply that the reaction didn't match the numbers.
What matters next is Helios, AMD's new rack-scale AI system, which starts shipping in the fourth quarter alongside Nvidia's Rubin. Bernstein expects AI server shipments to compound 15-22% a year through 2028, which is the demand AMD is scaling into.
Full passage: premium transcript (PDF).
In short: Down almost 6% despite a good earnings report — "I don't know what you could pick and not like." Lebenthal's explanation is relative, not fundamental: "Elon Musk spoke at length about Vera Rubin chips and the relationship with SpaceX and NVIDIA. We didn't hear very much about AMD." AMD has relationships with Meta, OpenAI and Anthropic, "but in return there are warrants on 160 million shares — a much different relationship." And the multiple gap does the rest: AMD in the mid-40s forward versus NVIDIA around 19.5. "Nothing wrong with AMD's earnings except what we heard last night from Elon Musk. If it was happening on another day, you'd get a better reaction."
AMD fell almost 6% on a report nobody could find fault with. Jim Lebenthal's explanation is that it lost a comparison rather than missing a number: Elon Musk spent his earnings call praising Nvidia's next-generation Vera Rubin chips and barely mentioned AMD.
He also draws a distinction in the quality of AMD's AI relationships. AMD has deals with Meta, OpenAI and Anthropic — but those customers received warrants (rights to buy AMD shares cheaply) on 160 million shares, meaning AMD partly paid for the business by giving away future equity. "A much different relationship." And AMD trades in the mid-40s times earnings while Nvidia trades around 19.5, so any comparison starts against it.
In short: Data Center takes over. Q2 revenue +50% Y/Y to $11.5B ($0.2B beat) and non-GAAP EPS $1.66 ($0.05 beat). Data Center revenue more than doubled to a record $6.7B — ahead of expectations, now 58% of AMD's revenue versus 42% a year ago — at a 31% operating margin. The "CPU reawakening" the newsletter flagged last quarter accelerated: EPYC and Instinct both contributed to the 107% Data Center growth, "reinforcing that the AI buildout is lifting more than GPUs," because inference and agentic workloads need large amounts of CPU capacity alongside accelerators — a second way for AMD to participate in AI infrastructure spending while it keeps taking server share from Intel. The next leg is Helios, AMD's full-rack AI system combining its GPUs, CPUs, networking and software: Lisa Su said it is beginning to ramp, with Meta and OpenAI among the first large deployments and Microsoft, Oracle and Anthropic also lined up — "AMD is increasingly competing with NVIDIA at the system level rather than selling a cheaper accelerator." Outside Data Center: Client +23% to $3.1B on Ryzen strength, Gaming −31% to $779M on lower semi-custom, Embedded +19% to $977M on recovering end-market demand. Q3 guided to $13.0B at the midpoint, ~$0.5B above consensus (41% Y/Y, +13% sequentially) with gross margin reaching 56% — and shares still fell ~9% after hours following a big run; the stock has more than doubled year to date. Bottom line: "the numbers were strong, but expectations have moved even faster," and with Helios only starting to ramp the bigger test comes in 2027, when AMD must convert its AI partnerships into the tens of billions of Data Center AI revenue it has promised. A disclosed author holding. (Analysis, not a stance call.)
AMD has become a data-centre company. Total sales rose 50% to $11.5 billion, but the data-centre division more than doubled to a record $6.7 billion and is now 58% of the whole business, versus 42% a year ago. That crossover is the headline.
What's interesting is what is selling. It isn't only AI accelerator chips (Instinct) — the ordinary server processors (EPYC) grew strongly too. The reason: running AI models for users, and the newer "agentic" software that takes multi-step actions on your behalf, needs a lot of conventional computing sitting next to the AI chips. So AMD gets paid twice by the same buildout, while continuing to take server market share from Intel.
The next step is Helios, which is AMD selling a whole rack rather than a chip — its accelerators, its processors, its networking and its software delivered as one integrated cabinet. That is the format NVIDIA has been winning with, so it moves the contest from "cheaper chip" to "whole system." Meta and OpenAI are the first big installations; Microsoft, Oracle and Anthropic are queued behind them.
Guidance for the current quarter, $13 billion, was about half a billion above what analysts wanted — and the shares still fell roughly 9%, because the stock has more than doubled this year and expectations had run further than the results. The article's conclusion is that the real exam is 2027, when this list of partnerships has to convert into the tens of billions of AI revenue AMD has promised. The author owns it; analysis, not a recommendation.
In short: The middle term in Luria's multiple comparison: "Micron six times earnings. AMD 50 times earnings. Intel 100 times earnings" — and "Intel and AMD make CPUs… Micron makes memory," in a world where he argues memory is now the better market. Priced closer to the cycle-continues camp than the cycle-is-over camp.
34:34And you think about what they do. Intel and AMD make CPUs, right? Micron makes memory. And historically, the CPU market's been a little better than memory. A little better. As we sit here today, I can make an argument that the memory chip market is much better than the CPU market. And yet, Micron is trading at six times as if the cycle is over.
In short: Signed a deal with Anthropic for tens of billions of dollars of AI servers over the weekend — another capex recipient in the semis-on-dips bucket (the report lists NVDA/MU/AMD/INTC as the selective re-entry names). Tempered on the TAM talk: Lisa Su's forecast that the AI accelerator market reaches $1.4 trillion by 2030 is "absolutely absurd."
AMD signed a deal with Anthropic over the weekend for tens of billions of dollars of AI servers — a big validation that there's a real second source to Nvidia. It sits in the same "buy the capex recipients on dips" bucket as Nvidia, Micron and Intel.
One note of caution on the hype: AMD's CEO Lisa Su says the AI accelerator market reaches $1.4 trillion by 2030, which Singh calls "absolutely absurd." He likes the order book, not the fairy tale.
Full passage: premium transcript (PDF).
In short: Giroux: a "diversity of compute" winner as workloads shift to inference and ASICs/CPUs get competitive with Nvidia GPUs. (Black's caveat: at 78x this year's earnings it is — with Broadcom — one of the two megacaps he does NOT call reasonably priced.)
In short: Named (with Marvell and Intel) among the semis "bouncing pretty hard today" — an example of the momentum-reset snapback. No individual call.
In short: Disclosure-only — one of the author's holdings (AAPL, AMD, GOOG, NVDA); part of the chip ecosystem competing for constrained memory supply, not discussed substantively.
In short: Named by Talkington (with Micron and Intel) as one of the growing memory/semi weights pulling the QQQ higher this year. No individual call.
In short: Track-record reference: his "$500 by 2026" call that was "mocked" (cyclical / DEI-hire CEO jibes) but proved right. A community member messaged he made over £70K in ~4 months on AMD — used as evidence his contrarian method works.
AMD shows up as proof his contrarian process works, rather than a thesis he argues here. He publicly called AMD to $500 by 2026 and was mocked for it ("it's cyclical," and cruder jibes about its CEO) — but says he was proved right, and a member of his private community messaged that he made over £70,000 on AMD in about four months. He's drawing the parallel to Duolingo: the crowd is wrong again, and he expects the same kind of payoff for patient long-term holders.
18:48Okay, that's quite interesting. So, the whole point of this video is to say that I think the market is wrong. And just like when I said that AMD was going to $500 a share by 2026 and everyone also mocked me then saying AMD is cyclical, it's run by this Asian woman who's a DEI hire — turned out I was actually right again.
In short: Named as part of the same circular-funding web as OpenAI/Oracle.
39:46OpenAI's data centers and AMD is part of this circular funding as well and you have Micron and Nebius and Cororeweave which effectively is just a conduit that buys Nvidia GPUs and builds its own data centers., their names like Figure AAI which are private where you don't even know what the financials are and Microsoft and Honey AI.
In short: Referenced — its server racks (like Nvidia's) need ever more fast memory, part of the memory-demand story driving ASML.
19:24So, as they're processing things, they have to store information. And as this more information comes, the simple way of putting this is they're storing a lot more information in the short term. They need very fast solid state memory. They need a lot of it. So these server racks that that Nvidia is creating, that AMD is creating, that all these companies are creating are requiring increased amounts of memory.
In short: Just upgraded it (admittedly late): genuinely good server CPUs taking "oodles of share" from Intel (x86 server revenue share 0.1% in 2015 → low-mid 40s; up 70%+ this year, not the street's 50%), plus OpenAI/Meta multi-gigawatt GPU deals (warrants he dislikes but understands). His 2027 EPS ~$14+; if Lisa Su's doubled $120B CPU TAM holds, ~$20 EPS by 2028 — the 2030 target two years early.
AMD is the number-two maker of both server CPUs (the general-purpose brains in data centers) and AI GPUs. Rasgon just upgraded it — admitting he's late and that his record of recommending AMD is "horrific," while staying out of it has cost him more. Two engines drive the call. First, CPUs: "agentic" AI (AI that goes off and does tasks — booking trips, writing code) runs much of its work on ordinary CPU cores, so CPU demand is exploding. AMD has genuinely better server chips than Intel — its share of that market went from 0.1% a decade ago to the low-40s — and its server business now looks like it grows 70%+ this year, not the 50% Wall Street had modeled.
Second, GPUs: AMD signed huge multi-billion-dollar supply deals with OpenAI and Meta. It had to hand both customers warrants (rights to buy ~10% of the company each) to get the deals — effectively paying for a ticket on the rocket ship because its chips alone weren't winning enough share — which Rasgon dislikes but understands. The math: if CEO Lisa Su's (recently doubled) forecast for the CPU market holds, AMD could earn about $20 a share by 2028 — hitting its 2030 target two years early — "and at that point you can underwrite quite a bit of upside."
27:26— To be fair, I will say that my track record with AMD bull cases is horrific. So we However, — we all have our crosses. — We do. I've been much more wrong by not recommending it. I mean, clearly like we we've been we upgraded on on earnings. Um, and I'm actually kind of kicking myself because when we had previewed the quarter a week and a half before they were, I came this close to upgrading it into the print and I I chickenened out.
In short: One of the chip names that "lost some momentum" technically — corroborating the crowded, narrowing AI trade.
AMD is another big chipmaker. As with Intel, Woo cites it only as a stock that has stopped climbing — fading leadership among the chip names that drove the AI rally. It's technical evidence the rally is losing breadth, not a fundamental view on AMD.
10:02This could show up in the earnings and guidance for Q2. I see few positive fundamental catalysts for the AI trade in the near term. And technically, Intel, AMD, and Broadcom all seem to have lost some momentum. What this means is that the AI rally might become even more narrow. I think the balance of risk is starting to favor the downside as the AI trade is getting very crowded.
In short: Referenced — Nutanix's IdentityAI shipped with NVIDIA GPU support and AMD support "coming." A peer-set mention, not a stance. Also a disclosed App Economy Portfolio holding.
In short: Disclosure-only — one of the author's App Economy Portfolio holdings (not discussed in the body).
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