| Account | Shares | Price | Value | % of acct | Cost/sh | Gain $ | Gain % | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 401K | 210 | $40.22 | $8,446 | 0.34% | $33.68 | $1,372 | +19.4% | — |
| RLT | 31 | $40.22 | $1,247 | 0.07% | $32.70 | $233 | +23.0% | — |
| Total | 241 | $9,693 | 0.22% | $1,606 | +19.9% | — |
In short: "Another good example" of a large US natural-gas producer that "would make sense in a portfolio like this."
Antero is another big Appalachian natural-gas producer — "another good example" of the fuel supplier that benefits as power plants and data centers burn more gas.
9:41You also have Antero as another good example. And so that's kind of on the natural gas side, what would make sense in a portfolio like this. On the nuclear side, you've got Cameco as a producer of nuclear fuel. You also have other companies that help process that fuel that would make sense in the portfolio. From the transportation standpoint, we're looking at natural gas pipeline companies there.
In short: His most emphatic valuation call of the interview: "We own Antero. God, what a cheap stock. Seven or eight times earnings."
Antero is a large Appalachian natural-gas producer, and it draws the most emphatic valuation comment in the whole interview: "God, what a cheap stock. Seven or eight times earnings."
Seven or eight times earnings means the company's annual profit is roughly an eighth of what you pay for the shares — an implied return in the low teens before any growth at all, at a moment when the S&P 500 costs around 25 times earnings. That gap, not a forecast about gas prices, is the position.
42:56If you look, we own the old Apache company, which is APA. We own Antero. God, what a cheap stock. Seven or eight times earnings. Then we own the pipelines. We own Enterprise Products and MPLX, Energy Transfer. We kind of up and down the way. And then we own a little bit on the service side.
In short: Owned as natural-gas exposure — "we own natural gas companies like Antero, Apache or APA." Natural gas is the one critical resource where he says the US is not behind the eight ball.
Antero is a large Appalachian natural-gas and natural-gas-liquids producer. It's the gas leg of the portfolio, and it carries a strategic point Oakley makes twice: natural gas is the only critical resource where he thinks the United States is not badly behind China and Russia. Everything else — copper, uranium, tungsten, antimony — the US has to import.
So gas is both a cheap earnings stream and the one energy input the country can supply itself in a world where "everybody is hoarding their own stuff."
6:27And then we own get natural gas companies like Antero, Apache or APA, the APA now. And we own drillers. We own Schlumberger, we own Transocean. In other words, you have to own the service companies, you have to own the producers, and you have to own the midstream. And we're not as big on the refiners, but you can probably own those as well.
In short: "That's where the Anteros in the United States" come in — the US-gas leg of the same trapped-gas / safe-jurisdiction AI-power trade.
Antero is a big US natural-gas producer — "the Anteros in the United States" — the American leg of the same trade as Tourmaline: cheap gas that becomes more valuable as the Middle East is wounded and as data centers need power near the gas.
31:11That's where the Anteros in the United States, AR, the Range Resources. That to me is the best AI play out there. And it's a play on the war. Before we get into the mailbag, there's two sectors. Actually, it's one sector, but on both sides of the border. Because of your Lehman background, I know you look at the financials as well. And U.S. banks, the U.S. Bank Index, record high. TSX Bank Index, record high.
In short: Recap of a September-2024 bullish write-up (with CTRA and EXE) on the natural-gas thesis; has "performed considerably better" than CTRA since. Cited as a gas-producer winner backing the bullish nattie stance behind the DVN pick.
In short: His lead natgas E&P: "AR is the largest, most liquid name with few hedges" — the cleanest long-term expression of the tighter-winter-balances + LNG + summer datacenter gas-turbine demand thesis. Near-term he's trading the weather (SSW cold blasts) with fast near-dated options, but the long view is the point.
Antero is a large US natural-gas producer. Paulo likes it as the cleanest way to own his gas thesis: he thinks US gas gets tight because winters are draining storage, the US keeps building export terminals (LNG) that ship gas overseas, and — new this cycle — AI datacenters are increasingly powered by on-site gas turbines, adding a big new source of summer demand.
Why Antero specifically: it's the biggest and most easily traded of the gas producers, and it hasn't "hedged" much. Hedging means locking in today's price for future production; a heavily hedged producer (like EQT, he notes) can't fully benefit if gas prices spike, whereas lightly-hedged Antero gets the full upside. He lists Range Resources, EQT, Comstock (growing production) and CNX as other names to research.
Short term, gas is wildly volatile — it fell from $5 to $3 in a month. He's watching the weather closely (a "Sudden Stratospheric Warming" event that pushes Arctic cold south should drive price spikes into February) and trades that with fast-moving options, but he stresses the durable reason to own a name like Antero is the multi-year demand story, not the weather.
In short: Natural-gas FCF machine — debt down, bought back 5–10% of the stock; the AI-power gas trade.
Antero is a natural-gas producer. He calls it a "free-cash-flow machine" — it generates far more cash than it needs to run, has paid down debt, and used the spare cash to buy back 5–10% of its own shares (which raises each remaining share's claim on the business). His bigger theme: AI data centers need huge amounts of power, and cheap U.S. natural gas is how that gets fed.
26:43Why is natural gas the right trade for 2026 despite the short-term collapse? One of the things we look at is free cash flow yield. That's what we see with Antero, which is AR Equity, and Range Resources, RRC. Debt coming down the last three-four years, free cash flow so robust both companies have bought back 5 to 10% of the stock. That's a beast under the market buying the company.
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.