In short: A disclosed, in-progress re-entry — the country expressed through the index rather than a single name. "FDW Capital wrote an article back in April about the commodity supercycle and how Argentina will benefit. I have become more confident in Argentina and have begun re-entering via the ETF (ARGT)." Three stated supports: the commodity cycle "bottomed around 2020 — the deepest trough since the Great Depression," with Capital Market Assumptions datasets pointing "toward a peak somewhere north of 12% annual returns by 2028–2030"; a structural argument he says survives even a bad-price scenario — "political accessibility combined with world-class reserves… not subject to the geopolitical risk premium that now shadows Middle Eastern barrels, Russian metals, or Chinese rare earth supply chains… the relative attractiveness of Latin American producers versus their geopolitical alternatives has permanently shifted"; and Vaca Muerta as "a tremendous wind in the sails of Argentina" — 308 Tcf of recoverable shale gas (second-largest globally) and the fourth-largest shale oil reserves, dormant on "capital controls and punitive export taxes," now at record production under Milei's RIGI incentive scheme and "attracting every major oil company on earth." His summary of the stage the trade is at: "This is no longer a story about potential. It is a story about execution… It will not be linear, and there will be volatility, but the trend is in place." No target, no sizing, and the position is explicitly still being built.
ARGT is an exchange-traded fund that holds a basket of the largest companies operating in Argentina — banks, energy producers, utilities, steel — so buying it is a bet on the country rather than on any one business. Polomny discloses that he has "begun re-entering" it. Both words matter: he has owned Argentina before and sold it, and he is buying back in stages rather than all at once, which is how he treats a view he is confident in but expects to be volatile.
His case has three layers. The first is ordinary commodity-cycle timing: raw materials went through their worst slump since the Great Depression around 2020, turned up, and forecasting datasets suggest the returns from owning commodities peak somewhere in 2028–2030. Argentina is a commodity country, so it rides that.
The second layer is the interesting one, because he says it holds even if the first is wrong. Investors apply a discount to resources sitting in places that might be seized, sanctioned, blockaded or cut off — Middle Eastern oil, Russian metals, Chinese rare earths all carry that penalty now. Argentina and Brazil have genuinely world-class deposits and are places a foreign company can actually operate in and get its money out of. That combination has become scarce, so the same barrel or the same tonne of lithium is simply worth more when it sits in Neuquén than when it sits somewhere a shipping lane can be closed. He calls this a permanent shift, and it is an argument about risk, not about price: "even in a scenario where commodity prices disappoint," the relative attractiveness has moved.
The third layer is one specific asset. Vaca Muerta is a shale formation in western Argentina holding the world's second-biggest recoverable shale gas resource (308 trillion cubic feet) and the fourth-biggest shale oil resource. It has been known since 2010 and did essentially nothing for over a decade — not because the rock was bad but because the government made it impossible to invest: currency controls that trapped your money in the country and export taxes that took the profit. Milei's reforms, particularly the RIGI scheme that gives large projects guaranteed tax and currency treatment for decades, removed those obstacles, and production is now at records with the major oil companies arriving. Polomny's line — "this is no longer a story about potential. It is a story about execution" — is his entry rule showing: he waited until the barrels were actually flowing before buying.
What he does not give: any target, any position size, or any timeframe for the market to reward it. His own caution is that the path will be rough — "it will not be linear, and there will be volatility." The obvious risks are the ones the thesis is built on being reversed: Argentina has changed economic direction abruptly many times, a future government could restore capital controls or export taxes, and an ETF of Argentine companies carries the peso and the country's borrowing costs along with the resource story.
In short: Bought the dip when Argentina sold off on Milei election worries — part of the Latin-American "center-right" value theme.
ARGT is a basket of Argentine stocks. He bought the dip when Argentina sold off on worries about President Milei's election odds. It fits his broader theme of cheap, commodity-rich, center-right-governed Latin American markets.
36:51Have you pulled back any exposure to emerging markets? We bought some Argentina in the trade alerts — Argentina stocks were really hammered because Milei looked like he was going to be in trouble for the election. We bought some Baba today on the dip; we lightened Baba near the highs. But above all, the Brazil election is next October. Around Latin America — Chile, Peru, Panama, Argentina — a lot of governments have moved center-right. And Lula, I think, is going to be knocked out of office next October in Brazil.
In short: A "second chance opportunity" and an admitted Haymaker "error of omission." Milei's reforms vanquished hyperinflation (200%+ in 2023 → ~40% and falling), and the economy is back to positive growth; "the Argentinian ETF" broke out above 3-year resistance (~40) in early 2023, well before Milei's November win — "a resoundingly accurate bullish signal." Now positioning for it.
ARGT is the easy one-fund way to own Argentine stocks. The country was a basket case — inflation over 200% a year — until President Milei slashed spending and deregulated; inflation is now down to ~40% and falling, and the economy has started growing again. Hay openly admits Haymaker missed the move: the Argentine ETF "broke out" (climbed above a multi-year ceiling around 40) back in early 2023, which in chart terms is a powerful "the worst is over" signal, and it came true.
His point is that it's a "second chance" — the turnaround is real and still has room to run, so they're now buying what they should have bought earlier. The lesson he draws: when a long-hated market clears a multi-year resistance level on real reform, take the breakout seriously.
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