| Account | Shares | Price | Value | % of acct | Cost/sh | Gain $ | Gain % | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSA | 11 | $208.87 | $2,298 | 2.13% | $207.00 | $21 | +0.9% | — |
In short: The FAA orders inspections of more than 400 737 MAX jets for possible cracks (per the Wall Street Journal), and the stock barely moves. Link: "it's a small setback — it's 471 planes out of 6,500 planes that they have in the 737 series. So not great news, but I think they will eventually get it fixed. In the meantime, the quarter they reported last quarter, the turnaround is quite evident: they're increasing their production rates, increasing their free cash flow levels, their margins are actually expanding again. To me, an organic growth of 8% — I think this is the buy."
The FAA ordered inspections of more than 400 Boeing 737 MAX jets for possible cracks, and the stock barely moved. Stephanie Link's arithmetic explains why: 471 aircraft out of roughly 6,500 in the 737 family is "a small setback," and it will be fixed.
Underneath the headline, she argues the turnaround is real and measurable: production rates rising, free cash flow rising, margins expanding again, and about 8% organic growth. "To me, I think this is the buy."
In short: Cash turns positive. Q2 revenue +8% Y/Y to $24.6B ($330M beat) while the core loss of $0.76/share missed by $0.45 on a fresh Air Force One charge — but free cash flow turned positive at $631M against −$200M a year ago, and backlog hit a record $715B across more than 6,200 commercial jets. Boeing delivered 171 aircraft, +14% and the highest quarterly total since 2018, narrowing the commercial division's operating loss; 737 output is moving from 42 to 47 a month with the new Everett North Line activated in July and a year-end target of 52. The 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10 completed certification flight testing and the 777X cleared FAA approval to begin its own, all tracking to 2027 first deliveries. Two drags: the $280M charge on the fixed-price VC-25B (Air Force One) program — roughly four years late with over $1B of overruns Boeing eats, first delivery still 2028 — and a cash beat that leaned on ~$1.5B of customer advances, with a $700M DOJ payment hitting Q3 that management expects to hold FCF to the low hundreds of millions. No revenue/EPS guidance as usual, but FY26 FCF of $1–3B reaffirmed (its first positive annual figure since 2023); debt cut $1.3B, 173 orders booked at Farnborough. The FAA proposed inspections of hundreds of 737 MAX jets over improperly installed seats, and the China order tied to a Trump-Xi summit didn't materialise. Watch the 47/month rate. (Recap, not a stance call.)
For Boeing, the single number that matters is cash: after years of burning it, the company generated $631 million this quarter versus losing $200 million a year ago. Deliveries hit 171 aircraft, the most since 2018, and the order backlog reached a record $715 billion — meaning demand is not the issue; the factory is. Boeing is lifting 737 output from 42 a month toward 47 and then 52, and that ramp is what the full-year cash target depends on. Two honest asterisks. The quarter's cash was helped by roughly $1.5 billion of customer prepayments, and a $700 million legal payment to the Justice Department hits next quarter. And the fixed-price Air Force One contract took another $280 million charge — it is four years late with more than $1 billion of overruns that Boeing, not the government, absorbs. A recap, not a call.
In short: A past "opportunistic 10% sleeve" example: bought its convertible preferred a couple of years ago for a good yield with the common beaten down — buy-low, collect yield, hopefully convert into the common higher.
Boeing is the aircraft maker. Finucane doesn't own the stock here — he uses it to illustrate the "opportunistic 10%" sleeve of the portfolio. A couple of years ago Boeing issued a convertible preferred: a bond-like security paying a fixed yield that can later be swapped into the common shares.
With the common stock beaten down, buying the convertible preferred let Oxbow collect a good yield while they waited, with the option to convert into the stock if it recovered — a "buy low, get paid to wait, hopefully convert higher" special situation.
44:07One example, something that we bought must have been a couple of years ago, Boeing issued a convertible preferred stock that had a good yield and the common share price had really gone down a lot and seemed like a good buy low, hopefully sell high, but get a good yield in the meantime. And that's something he really looks out for in the high income strategies when you get one of those convertible preferred stocks in a good business that's just going through a tough time.
In short: Moved Buy → Hold for the 2027-28 cash ramp; position ~+5% (recommended Mar-13 ~$210, now ~$222). The turnaround is real: 737 MAX production 38→toward 47/mo (guided 52 by early 2027; FAA caps lifted Oct-2025, a fourth Everett line opened in July), Q2 deliveries ~167 (beat ~160), 500-550 MAX targeted for 2026 (~+40%); FCF inflected positive ($375M Q4-2025), guided $1-3B in 2026 toward ~$6.8B (2027) and ~$10.5B (2028), plus a credit-outlook upgrade, behind a >5,000-jet backlog and an Airbus duopoly. But the timeline lengthened everywhere (777X entry 2027+, Commercial profitability slipped to 2027, a costly Spirit AeroSystems reacquisition compressing margins, $47-51B debt, dividend/buybacks off indefinitely), valuation is entirely on future FCF (P/E >100, a turnaround "quirk"; ~$275-345 on a 20-25× 2028-FCF multiple only if the ramp executes), and China/litigation headline risk keeps resetting the mood — "very little valuation cushion for a stumble." Wouldn't add here; better entries on a strike/FAA/delivery setback. Watch the Jul 28 Q2 print, SPEEA talks into October, the FAA directive. Thesis-breakers: a prolonged engineers' strike, a fresh quality glitch, or the FCF ramp slipping.
Boeing is one of only two big passenger-jet makers on earth (Airbus is the other). It nearly broke itself after the 737 MAX crashes and years of quality problems, and Hay bought it in March as a "turnaround" — a bet that a new CEO would fix the factory and get planes out the door again. That's now happening: Boeing is building more jets each month, delivering more than expected, and — the key thing — has finally started generating cash instead of burning it, with a plan to grow that cash pile hugely over the next few years. The stock is up about 5% since he bought.
The catch is that you're paying today entirely for cash the company hopes to earn in 2027 and 2028 — there's no dividend, and the reported price-to-earnings looks absurd (over 100) simply because a company just crawling back to profit has tiny near-term earnings, which makes the math meaningless. Meanwhile every part of the recovery is taking longer than promised, Boeing owes $47-51 billion, and it faces near-term hazards: a possible engineers' strike (the SPEEA union), fresh quality or safety findings, or a bad delivery quarter. Any of those could knock the stock, and there's little cushion in the price. So Hay is downgrading it from "Buy" to "Hold" — keep what you own for the multi-year cash story, but don't add at today's price; wait for a scary headline to give you a cheaper entry.
In short: Aerospace is one of many simultaneous capital cycles — Boeing + Airbus carry ~$1T of backlog over 10 years, now competing with the space economy for the same materials.
3:30Boing and Airbus have a trillion dollars of backlog over the next 10 years. Now throw in the space economy which is going to compete for the exact same materials and backlog that Boeing and Airbus are trying to source. We have the grid right anytime it gets a little bit cold in Texas. The Eurot the Texas grid's not connected not connected to the rest of the US grid.
In short: Cited (with Airbus) for a $1T+ 10-yr backlog driving the aerospace CapEx cycle — but he plays it through the supply-chain pinch point (Carpenter), not the OEMs.
Boeing is one of the two big jet makers whose $1 trillion-plus order backlog drives the aerospace building boom. But he doesn't buy the plane makers themselves — because they're locked into certified suppliers and can't switch to cheaper metal, he prefers to own the bottleneck supplier (Carpenter) that sells into them.
6:51supply chain, that's where all the alpha is generated at a stock selection level. And I can tell you I have never seen so many CapEx cycles happening simultaneously at the same time. Let me just give you a few examples, right? One, we have a gigantic aerospace CapEx cycle. If you look at the backlog of Boeing and Airbus, it's a trillion dollars plus over the next 10 years.
In short: Pick of the Week — a turnaround "already working" the bearish headlines mask. $682B record backlog (all 3 segments at records), Q4 revenue $23.9B (highest since 2018, +57% YoY), and FCF inflected positive at $375M (CFO Jesus Malave) after years of burn — on track for $1–3B FCF in 2026, $6.7B in 2027 (consensus), $10B long-term. New CEO Ortberg cleaned up the balance sheet (post the ~$25B equity / $35B bond raises), lifted quality control, fixed FAA relations; Feb deliveries the highest since 2017. Half of an Airbus/Boeing duopoly — no third option at scale, so cancelled orders redistribute (China's came back as a ~500-jet deal). ~$210 vs consensus PT ~$246 (~15%); broke 2-yr resistance, a clean break of $260 opens $300. Caveat: the Iran war could pressure airline orders — start small or hold off. Idea from contributor Dan Bustamante.
Boeing makes large passenger jets. For five years it has been buried under bad news — quality scandals, strikes, two crashes years ago, and a balance sheet wrecked by years of burning cash (it had to raise ~$25B of stock and $35B of debt just to survive). So most investors flinch at the name. Haymaker's argument is that the flinch is the opportunity, because the actual numbers have quietly turned. The company has a record $682B order book (roughly $700B of future sales already signed), its latest quarter was its biggest revenue quarter since 2018, and — the part that matters most — it just generated positive "free cash flow" (cash left over after running and investing in the business) for the first time in years, with management guiding to far more in 2026 and 2027.
The other half of the case is the moat. There are only two companies on earth that build big jets at scale: Boeing and Europe's Airbus. An airline that needs planes has nowhere else to go (Brazil's Embraer only makes small regional jets), so even when bad headlines scare customers off, the orders don't vanish — they get re-shuffled to others on the same multi-year waiting list, or come back later (China just signaled a ~500-jet deal). At ~$210 the stock trades below where the recovering business should value it; Wall Street's average target is ~$246, and a clean break above $260 could open a path to $300. The one big risk Haymaker flags is the Iran war — a long conflict could pressure airlines into cancelling orders — so it suggests starting with a small position or waiting. This idea came from Haymaker's new contributor, hedge-fund manager Dan Bustamante.
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