In short: The exhibit for the leapfrog thesis: "no Western manufacturer will compare to BYD very soon. Which has gone from zero to 5 million cars a year like nothing." Framed as competitively unanswerable rather than as a formal share recommendation — "what's BYD worth compared to Ford?"
BYD is the Chinese carmaker that also makes its own batteries — which is why it can build electric and plug-in hybrid cars more cheaply than almost anyone. (BYDDY is the American over-the-counter ticker: a receipt a US broker can buy that represents shares listed in Hong Kong and Shenzhen.)
Doomberg uses BYD as the single clearest piece of evidence that China has moved past the West rather than merely caught up: it went "from zero to 5 million cars a year like nothing," and "no Western manufacturer will compare to BYD very soon." The stance is positive on the company's competitive position rather than a formal buy call on the shares — the question posed is comparative, "what's BYD worth compared to Ford?", and the intended answer is that the market has already made up its mind about who wins.
4:52That's an awful lot of capital gains for the US government to harvest. And so, anthropic, what is the purpose of a system is what it does. I would argue that no Western manufacturer will compare to BYD very soon. Which has gone from zero to 5 million cars a year like nothing. What's BYD worth compared to Ford? The only place, one of the few remaining places where the US in particular has a strong position is in, ironically, the hydrocarbon complex.
In short: The nearest rival and the only competitor treated seriously — but described, not recommended. "Its nearest rival is BYD at around 16% market share… Today BYD is the largest EV maker in the world and it's vertically integrated, meaning they make their own batteries. They do sell some batteries to others but the vast majority is consumed by their own cars. So in a way they are a competitor to CATL and in a sense they are not." The competition that is real is R&D, and Manish uses it to make a point about China rather than about BYD: "this year in March BYD came out with a battery that charges from 10% to 97% in about 9 minutes. And a month later, CATL came out with a competing product that goes from 10% to 98% in under 7 minutes. And in this R&D competition between CATL and BYD, the Chinese lead over everyone keeps widening." Historical note: "it was Berkshire's famous investment in China led by Charlie Munger back in 2008, and that investment returned roughly 20 times before Berkshire fully exited last year." Also the origin of CATL's break: BYD declined to supply batteries to outside customers in 2012, which is why BMW went to CATL instead.
BYD is the world's largest maker of electric cars and CATL's nearest battery rival at about 16% of the market — but it is a strange kind of competitor, because it makes batteries mostly for its own vehicles rather than to sell. No view is taken on BYD's shares here; it appears as the yardstick for how far ahead CATL is (roughly two and a half times bigger) and as proof that the real race is in the laboratory: in March BYD launched a pack that charges from 10% to 97% in about nine minutes, and a month later CATL answered with 10% to 98% in under seven. The takeaway offered is not that one of them wins, but that the two of them together are pulling China's lead over everyone else wider.
Two historical footnotes come with it. BYD was Berkshire Hathaway's famous Chinese investment, pushed by Charlie Munger in 2008, which returned roughly twenty times its money before Berkshire sold out entirely last year. And CATL's big break exists because BYD refused it: when BMW went looking for an electric-car battery in 2012, BYD would not supply outside customers, so BMW took a chance on an unknown supplier instead — and embedded its own German engineers in that supplier's factory to co-design the pack.
11:13Its nearest rival is BYD at around 16% market share. Now most listeners would know BYD. It was Bokshshire's famous investment in China led by Charlie Munger back in 2008 and that investment returned roughly 20 times before Burkshshire fully exited last year. Today BYD is the largest EV maker in the world and it's vertically integrated meaning they make their own batteries.
In short: The single company carrying the demand argument — cited as data, not as a call. "BYD (the world's largest auto exporter) PHEV exports grew from 11.6% to 37% of total export mix," and "China's auto market tells the story in pretty stark fashion. PHEVs now lead total monthly sales, surpassing 60% of the market in 2026, with BYD at the center of it." The export channel is the part that matters for palladium demand outside China: "Chinese PHEV exports to Europe grew more than 700% year-over-year, with Spain, the UK, and Belgium each posting volume increases of multi-hundred to over 1,000%," plus "comparable growth" in the UAE, Southeast Asia and South America. Two of the three named drivers are BYD-specific: "EU anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese BEVs (PHEVs are exempt) that make PHEVs the price-competitive alternative while BYD builds factories in Hungary and Turkey," and "platforms like BYD's DM 5.0, which delivers over 2,000 km (about 1,200 miles) of combined range." Closing restatement: "the hybrid demand argument has, if anything, strengthened, as the China data, exemplified by BYD, continues to accumulate." No view is taken on BYD's shares — the company is the proof that the PHEV growth is real and exportable, and therefore that catalytic-converter palladium demand is growing where the consensus assumes it is disappearing.
BYD is the Chinese carmaker that has become the world's largest vehicle exporter. Hay does not offer an opinion on its shares — the company appears in this note purely as the evidence that his palladium demand argument is real rather than theoretical.
The specific numbers he uses: plug-in hybrids have gone from 11.6% to over 37% of BYD's export mix, and Chinese plug-in hybrid exports to Europe are up more than 700% in a year, with Spain, the UK and Belgium each up several hundred to over a thousand percent. BYD is also building factories in Hungary and Turkey — which matters because the EU's anti-subsidy tariffs hit Chinese pure-electric cars while exempting plug-in hybrids, effectively steering the company toward the drivetrain that needs a catalytic converter. And its DM 5.0 platform delivers over 2,000 kilometres of combined range, which removes the practical objection to a hybrid.
Why an investor in a palladium fund should care: every one of those exported plug-in hybrids contains a full catalytic converter, and therefore palladium. If the fastest-growing part of the "electric vehicle" market is actually a car with a petrol engine in it, the consensus assumption that electrification destroys palladium demand is not just early — it is pointed the wrong way. BYD is the single company that makes that case concrete, which is why Hay closes by noting that "the China data, exemplified by BYD, continues to accumulate."
In short: Referenced, not a pick — cited as one of the goods that make the yuan worth accepting. Twenty years ago yuan bought "plastic squirt guns and crap at Walmart"; now "it's good for Chinese AI, it's good for Huawei equipment, it's good for BYD cars, it's good for solar" — which is what makes the yuan-invoicing leg of the gold-settlement system work.
43:12Well, now it's good for Chinese AI. It's good for Huawei equipment. It's good for BYD cars. It's good for solar pads. It's good for a whole lot of stuff that most of the world buys anyway and or would like to buy. So, number one, China's trade, China's factory base increases the acceptance of yuan for the imports that China can buy in yuan, the commodity imports.
In short: Referenced, not a pick — used to illustrate Chinese competitiveness. He rode BYDs in London/Scotland ("expecting the lowest end quality thing… it's actually a good quality product"); a symbol of China's "cheaper and better" export offer the US won't let in.
44:08You know what I can drive? I can drive a Chinese BYD. Well, I can't, because my country won't let it in. But most of the world, when I was just over in London and Scotland, there are BYDs all over the place. There's other Chinese car brands all over the place because it turns out people like having cheap transportation. Who knew? BYDs are good vehicles too. Absolutely.
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.