In short: Terranova's personal position (June 23 at $263) is about to hit his time stop (14:27). S&P ranges have been tight and volumes lower for 30–45 days, so trading revenue may not repeat Q1/Q2: "I'm close to literally timing myself out over a 90 day time stop because it's basically just sitting right there."
In short: Two-sided, and the tell is that it fell off Brown's best-stocks-in-the-market list along with CME and Intercontinental. The bear case is structural: "there's this incredible fear that the next generation of investors, rather than learning to actually trade futures, are just going to place bets… they'll use prediction markets… and I'm not going to say it's an illegitimate fear," because prediction markets target "some of the last most profitable commissionable activity" at the exchanges. "That fear will remain above the heads of those exchanges, and there's going to be some political fights about it too. It's not over yet." Renick's tape is the other side: exchange stocks "took a fresh hit on Wednesday after the Hyperliquid news but since have fully recovered and are now rallying… this next phase of regulation might be the beginning of the join-them phase rather than the fight-them phase."
The exchanges are facing a genuinely new competitor. "Perpetual futures" are crypto-native contracts that trade around the clock, offer very high leverage and never expire — unlike the products regulated exchanges list. Separately, prediction markets let ordinary investors simply bet on whether something will happen.
Josh Brown thinks the threat is real, and he is specific about why it hurts: prediction markets target the most profitable commission revenue the exchanges and brokers have. His mechanical signal is that Cboe, CME and Intercontinental Exchange have all dropped off his best-stocks-in-the-market list — the screen removed them before he formed the opinion.
Oliver Renick supplies the other side. Exchange stocks fell again this week when President Trump commented on regulating a decentralised exchange, but they have fully recovered and are rallying — because regulation may mark the point at which the exchanges stop fighting these products and start listing them themselves. Exchanges, he notes, rarely refuse to supply what customers demand.
In short: One of the two exchanges (with MIAX) substantially higher than 12 months ago and ahead of the S&P despite the May 15–June 22 selloff — and it "hasn't been this inexpensive in three to five years." Filed a proposal with the SEC to launch near-24/5 U.S. equity trading by year end, part of the tokenization/extended-hours build-out the firm reads as expansion, not disruption.
Cboe is the options exchange — the home of the VIX and of the index options that dominate U.S. options volume. It shares the family economics: a per-contract toll with almost no incremental cost.
Along with MIAX, it is one of the two exchanges that came through the May–June selloff still substantially higher than a year earlier and ahead of the market, and it now trades at its cheapest level in three to five years. It is also pushing the trading day outward, having asked the SEC for near-24/5 U.S. equity trading by year end — which is the firm's broader point about this industry: the "threats" (crypto venues, round-the-clock trading, tokenization) are the incumbents' own expansion roadmap.
Full passage: premium transcript (PDF).
In short: Terranova added CBOE over the last month — his other financial-exchange add alongside JPMorgan; "without question in the financial exchanges" there's a lot to like.
Cboe runs options and futures exchanges — it makes money on trading volume rather than lending. Joe Terranova added it over the last month; he's especially comfortable "in the financial exchanges," where he sees less of the stretched-expectations risk he worries about in the traditional banks.
In short: His worked example of "wait for your spot": he'd long wanted the exchange but wouldn't overpay; when the perpetual-futures/Kalshi news dropped it to its 200-day moving average he "pounced on that" (his jul-09 buy). "These are great businesses" — network effect, high margin, every incremental trade "virtually free," and inflation-protected because they can raise prices; the moat wasn't actually threatened. Held.
Cboe runs financial exchanges — the marketplaces where options and futures trade. Polomny loves this kind of business: once the plumbing is built, each extra trade costs almost nothing, so it's very high-margin, and because it can raise its fees over time it protects you against inflation. He'd wanted to own it for a while but thought it was too expensive.
Then new SEC rules letting Kalshi and Polymarket offer "perpetual futures" scared investors into thinking the exchanges' competitive advantage was under threat, and the whole group sold off to its 200-day average price. Polomny decided the fear was misplaced — nothing about the actual business changed — so he "pounced" and bought (his July 9 alert). It's a buy-and-hold quality compounder bought cheap on a headline, not a trade.
5:39And so when a business — I mean look at the chart for CBOE for example, I think it corrected all the way down to its 200 day moving average. This is why it's probably a good idea to keep some dry powder because I pounced on that. I wanted to own that stock. I liked the business, but it had gotten way ahead of itself and I wasn't able to get the position that I wanted because I didn't want to overpay. But when the thing corrected like it did, then I was able to, in my mind at least, get another bite at the apple. So that's an example.
In short: "Bought shares in (CBOE). These exchanges are great businesses that I have admired for a while but were a little rich. The big drop gives me another chance to buy in for the long term." A quality exchange bought on an exogenous drop that didn't touch the moat — held for the long term (not a trade).
Cboe runs stock and options exchanges — it collects a small fee on enormous volumes of trading, a toll-booth business with a wide moat and high margins. Polomny had wanted to own it for years but the price was always a bit too high. When new legislation opening up "perpetual futures" (tied to prediction-market operator Kalshi) spooked the whole exchange group and knocked the shares down sharply, nothing actually changed about Cboe's business or its moat — so the drop simply made a company he already liked cheap enough to buy. He bought it "for the long term," meaning he intends to hold and let it compound, not flip it on a bounce.
Nothing matches this filter.
Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.