| Account | Shares | Price | Value | % of acct | Cost/sh | Gain $ | Gain % | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 401K | 66 | $7.90 | $521 | 0.02% | $7.67 | $15 | +3.1% | — |
In short: Second trim on rising deal risk — "We recommend trimming CKHUY and monitoring deal progress." Bought Nov-10-2025 at $6.78, trimmed Jul-20-2026 at $8.95 (+32%), now ~$8.88, "essentially flat since the trim." Thesis = sum-of-parts unlock from selling ~43 ports to a BlackRock-led consortium at $22.8B EV; since then Panama's supreme court voided the Balboa/Cristobal concessions (interim operations to Maersk and MSC), CK Hutchison filed arbitration for "more than $1.5 billion" (and a separate one against Maersk), and Cosco + MSC joined the consortium. Bull case "in one sentence": Bloomberg (Aug-26) says it "expects to sell the remaining 43-port global portfolio at the original $22.8 billion enterprise value, even with the Panama terminals excluded"; H1 underlying profit +6.7%, ports EBITDA +4% despite a HK$496M Panama hit. Against it: "the geopolitical complexity has increased rather than decreased," a "259% premium to some fair-value estimates" means "the market may be overpricing deal certainty," Beijing hesitation / regulation / renegotiation could delay or cut proceeds, and the arbitration is "a multi-year process not a near-term catalyst."
CK Hutchison is a Hong Kong conglomerate controlled by the Li Ka-shing family. The reason Haymaker bought it (at $6.78) was a planned sale of its global ports business — about 43 ports — to a group led by BlackRock for $22.8 billion. The idea was that the sale would reveal how much the pieces are really worth, since the stock traded below the value of its parts.
The deal got political. Two ports next to the Panama Canal were at the centre of a US-China fight, and Panama's supreme court took them away from the company. CK Hutchison is suing for more than $1.5 billion, but that could take years. To get China's approval, the buyer group added China's state shipping company Cosco and the shipping line MSC. The good news: Bloomberg reports the company still expects $22.8 billion for the remaining ports, and the underlying business is still growing.
Haymaker already sold part of the position in July at $8.95. The stock is about the same price now, but the deal looks riskier, and some estimates say the stock is well above fair value — so the market may be too sure the deal closes. The advice is to sell more and keep an eye on the deal. This is a special-situation bet on one deal closing, not a long-term compounder.
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.