| Account | Shares | Price | Value | % of acct | Cost/sh | Gain $ | Gain % | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSA | 27 | $15.97 | $431 | 0.40% | $18.20 | $-60 | -12.2% | — |
| ROTH | 79 | $15.64 | $1,236 | 0.48% | $18.99 | $-265 | -17.7% | — |
| Total | 106 | $1,667 | 0.04% | $-325 | -16.3% | — |
In short: Customers return. Q2 revenue +4% Y/Y to $8.9B (+10% cc); excluding a $410M Korean administrative fine related to the data incident, GAAP EPS was −$0.09, with adjusted EBITDA recovering sequentially to $163M from just $29M in Q1 but still far below $428M a year ago. Product Commerce revenue +8% cc to $7.4B with active customers at 24.7 million (+3%): "most customers who left after the incident have returned, and returning customers are now spending more than before," with the remaining gap concentrated in those who haven't come back. Profitability lags — Product Commerce EBITDA margin at 5.1%, down 3.9 points Y/Y, because Coupang still carries network capacity built for pre-incident demand while spending on reacquisition; management expects margins back to pre-incident levels by mid-2027. Developing Offerings +24% cc to $1.4B on Taiwan, Eats and Farfetch, with segment losses improving slightly to $219M (FY26 losses still $950M–$1B). Q3 cc revenue growth guided to 8–9%. "Q2 strengthened the case that the data incident caused a temporary demand shock rather than permanent customer damage." A disclosed author holding.
In short: Update — a "loser" lately: sales +8% but cash flow disappointed; now near longer-term support (13.5–14), which "it would be best to hold." Still fans of its Amazon-like e-commerce / hard-to-replicate logistics; a massive insider purchase earlier this year. Expects strong profits once it stops over-spending on growth. "Sticking with it but not advising buying more."
Coupang is South Korea's dominant e-commerce company — think a local Amazon with its own hard-to-copy delivery network. The latest quarter disappointed: sales grew 8% but cash flow came in weak, and the stock has fallen back toward a key support level around $13.50–14. Haymaker still believes in the business (and notes a big insider purchase) and expects strong profits once it eases off heavy spending on growth — but for now it's a "hold what you have, don't add" call, not a fresh buy.
In short: Pick of the Week — "the Amazon of South Korea" (no AWS) at its inflection from capital-heavy buildout to cash generation: FCF flipped positive as capex falls, gross margins rose from the mid-teens to ~30%, operating income turned positive, and revenue nearly doubled to ~$35B since 2021 (>17% CAGR). The moat is physical density — 70% of Koreans within 7 miles of a center → unmatched next-day delivery. Rocket WOW (a Prime analog) lifts retention; ads/Coupang Pay/Coupang Eats are high-margin layers on the same infrastructure; Taiwan is the next copy-paste market (~$1B 2025 capex). Trades at ~1× sales vs ~3× for AMZN/MELI/SE at comparable stages, with $7.23B cash (~20% of cap) and effectively negative net debt — "more like a value stock." $19–20 is critical (mid-teens support below; stop ~$18.50). Accumulate a small position and average in; traders use the tight stop.
Coupang is South Korea's dominant online retailer — think Amazon, but for a single, extremely dense, tech-savvy country (and without Amazon's hugely profitable cloud-computing arm). For a decade it poured money into warehouses, delivery trucks, and software so it could put a fulfillment center within seven miles of 70% of the population, which lets it deliver almost anything overnight more cheaply than anyone can match. That spending made it look like a money-loser for years. Hay's point is that the heavy building is now mostly done, so new sales increasingly flow straight to the bottom line: cash flow has turned positive, profit margins have roughly doubled, and revenue has nearly doubled to about $35 billion.
The cheap part of the story is that investors still treat it like a struggling retailer — it trades at about one year's sales, while comparable companies (Amazon, MercadoLibre, Sea) command roughly three times sales at the same stage. It also has more than $7 billion in cash, more than its entire debt, so it's financially a fortress, and it's now replicating its Korea playbook in Taiwan. The stock has been weak after a 2025 data breach, so Hay treats $19–20 as a make-or-break level and suggests a stop near $18.50 for traders; longer-term investors should buy a small starter position and add if it falls to the mid-teens. The upside case is that once the market relabels Coupang as a "distribution utility" rather than a retailer, the stock could roughly double. (Note: Haymaker later cooled to Neutral on CPNG in May 2026 after disappointing cash flow.)
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