In short: The instrument behind the day's ag theme, read out by Wapner from Jonathan Krinsky's BTIG note: "while most eyes continue to be on energy commodities, the ag commodities are likely to get more attention. The Invesco DB Agriculture ETF — that's the DBA — is up four straight days, up 13% on the month and breaking out to fresh highs, multi year highs." Krinsky's constructive equity list off the same move: Nutrien, LyondellBasell, CF, CNH and Deere. Terranova's separate purchase of Nutrien the same morning is the desk's expression of it.
The DBA is a fund that holds agricultural commodity futures — corn, wheat, soybeans, sugar, coffee and so on — so it moves with crop prices rather than with any company. BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky flags it as up four days running, up 13% on the month, and breaking out to multi-year highs.
Why that matters beyond the fund itself: a commodity index making new highs is the cleanest confirmation that the move Terranova is buying Nutrien for is real and broad, rather than one crop having a good week. Krinsky's equity list off the same signal — Nutrien, LyondellBasell, CF, CNH and Deere — spans fertiliser, chemicals and farm machinery, which is what a genuine ag cycle looks like.
In short: The tape confirming the farm-cost squeeze: "if you looked at the DBA ETF, which is an agricultural ETF, it's been up at least the last 11 trading days straight… people are starting to price in that we're going to have some issues here." Bullish on the direction, candid on the vehicle problem: agriculture is "easy to see that you're going to have an upward bias in prices, but hard to establish a position."
DBA is an exchange-traded fund that holds futures contracts on farm commodities — corn, wheat, soybeans, sugar, coffee and the rest — so it moves roughly with the price of food at the farm gate rather than with any company's profits.
Polomny points at it because it has risen eleven trading sessions in a row, which he reads as the market finally pricing in a cost squeeze he has been describing for months. American farmers are facing what the press calls their worst crisis in 40 years: diesel near $5.70 a gallon even in low-tax South Texas, nitrogen fertilizer curtailed because a large share of world capacity sits in the Middle East, and phosphate fertilizer constrained because the sulfuric acid used to make it is still scarce. When it costs far more to plant and harvest, either grain prices rise or farmers stop planting — and fewer farmers means higher prices later anyway.
His caveat is about execution, not direction. Agriculture, he says, is "easy to see" and hard to own: the natural instruments are futures and options on futures, which most people should not touch. An ETF like DBA is the accessible proxy, and he notes plainly that he does not have a perfect answer to the position-sizing problem — "how do you establish a position? That's the trick."
48:14The sulfuric acid problem has not been alleviated. That's how you create phosphate fertilizers. You use the sulfuric acid in the process of creating phosphate fertilizers. So all of these costs continue to go up. Now we're finally starting to see grain prices go up. I think if you looked at the DBA ETF, which is an agricultural ETF, it's been up at least like the last 11 trading days, I think, straight.
In short: SELLING, but not a call against the commodity: "I am bullish on agriculture. However… I allowed some scope creep in the portfolio. An example is this position. It is not likely to be a candidate for a multibagger. Therefore, it will be sold and removed from the portfolio."
A commodity fund tracking farm goods — corn, soybeans, sugar, coffee and the like. He is still bullish on agriculture; he just admits this position never belonged in this portfolio: a broad commodity basket can't plausibly triple, and the AIA Portfolio exists to hunt names that can. "It is not likely to be a candidate for a multibagger. Therefore, it will be sold and removed." A mandate decision, not a market call.
In short: Holding; no major news this month (AIA Portfolio).
In short: US farmers are really struggling — "expect higher food prices later this year."
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