In short: A chart read, not a pick: "Not that I'm suggesting you buy it, but this is a classic breakout. I mean, the thing is extremely overvalued, but this is an indication of what's happening in the ag sector… It's in a bull market." The equipment maker as the tape confirming the agricultural cycle.
Deere makes tractors, combines and other farm equipment. When farmers expect higher crop prices they buy new machinery, so Deere's share price tends to anticipate the farm cycle.
Polomny shows its chart as a "classic breakout" — evidence that the agricultural sector "has woken up" and entered a bull market, with corn rocketing and input costs (diesel, ammonia fertilizer) squeezing supply. But he explicitly does not recommend buying it: "the thing is extremely overvalued." The chart is a signal about the sector, not a buy call on the company.
34:42so that's why we do these weekly videos, that's why we have the newsletter. We're trying to stay ahead of everybody else. By the time everybody else figures out what's going on, we're already positioned. So, I thought this was interesting. Just wanted to show this Deere & Company. They make the agricultural equipment, tractors and implements. Not that I'm suggesting you buy it, but this is a classic breakout. I mean, the thing
In short: From the sell side, not the desk: in Wapner's read of Jonathan Krinsky's BTIG note on the ag-commodity breakout, "they're constructive on Nutrien, LyondellBasell, CF, CNH and Deere." The farm-equipment leg of a trade whose premise is that corn, wheat, soybeans and cotton were all up double digits in August. No committee position.
In short: #2. Founded 1837, IPO 1955 — and the second-best return on the list at over 12,000% since 1990. "The world will always need food, and growing enough requires the specialized, heavy machines that John Deere builds. Deere has broad dealer networks for parts and repairs. The brand has generations of trust." The dealer network is the moat that matters: a broken harvester in harvest week is a business-ending event, so proximity to parts and service decides the purchase. Introduced as the worked example in Part I.
Deere builds the heavy machinery farms and construction sites depend on. In Part I it was the illustration for the whole Lindy idea; here it is ranked second, and the additional argument is the dealer network.
That network matters more than the machines. A combine that breaks down during the two-week window when a crop must be cut is a catastrophe, so farmers buy from whoever can put a part and a mechanic in the field fastest. Building that coverage across a continent takes generations, which is why the brand carries, as the post puts it, generations of trust. Shareholders have made over 12,000% since 1990 — the second-best on the list.
In short: The worked example that opens the issue; ranked #2 in Part II. "It's a Lindy business that has been around since 1837 (!). It began when a blacksmith named John Deere made a polished steel plow from a broken sawblade. The basics of farming haven't changed in thousands of years. That means Deere's expertise, brand, and reputation have been growing for nearly 200 years. Now, they are a global giant making GPS-guided, autonomous tractors. And they still make plows." The inference is the issue's whole argument: "If a business has survived 189 years of wars, recessions, and technological change… the Lindy Effect suggests it is likely to survive another 189 years."
Deere makes the large machines farmers and builders use: tractors, harvesters, excavators. It has been doing so since 1837, when a blacksmith made a plough with a polished steel blade out of a broken sawblade, because ordinary iron ploughs clogged in the sticky soil of the American Midwest.
It is the example chosen to open the whole Lindy argument, and it illustrates the distinction that matters. Almost nothing about the technology has survived — today's machines are GPS-guided and increasingly drive themselves — but the purpose, the dealer network and the reputation have. The claim drawn from it is deliberately provocative: a business that has come through 189 years of wars, depressions and technological upheaval is likely to see another 189. It returns at number two in the second half of the list.
In short: The other equipment name on "any construction site"; a quasi-AI/data-center build play. Referenced alongside Caterpillar, not owned.
58:34part supply, you go to any construction site in North America, there's either Caterpillar or it's John
58:42Deere. And so it's so embedded in this fiscal push of all of the spending.
In short: Cited as the precision-ag enabler — its offering could cut farmers' fertilizer use ~50%, a long-term headwind for fertilizer demand (e.g. Mosaic).
John Deere makes farm equipment. It comes up as the company enabling "precision farming" — smart tractors that know exactly where and how much fertilizer to apply, instead of farmers over-spraying to be safe. Deere says this could cut fertilizer use by about half, which is a long-term headwind for fertilizer makers like Mosaic.
47:57I I do believe one of the great uses of artificial intelligence is going to be with precision ag where you effectively have these really smart tractors that know exactly where in the farmer's field to apply the fertilizer and how much to apply because the way the fertilizer you know the farming industry works right now is you have an acre of land that's so valuable that most farmers just over apply fertilizer just to be safe right when you go to the gas station you say fill her up just just to be safe right and so there's so much waste in the fertilizer
In short: Named once, as Markel's fifth-largest equity position at 3.3%. No stance.
In short: Valuation benchmark — Deere at ~30× earnings, paired with Caterpillar as the slower-growing industrial comp NOW now trades below on P/E. Not a call on DE.
In short: David Hay's framing (not Sy's pick) — a former value stock now "priced for perfection."
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.