| Account | Shares | Price | Value | % of acct | Cost/sh | Gain $ | Gain % | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 401K | 823 | $17.31 | $14,246 | 0.58% | $10.91 | $5,265 | +58.6% | — |
In short: Upgraded from a watch item on the political catalyst: "I like the fact that we have a changing government in Colombia. So, it's probably worth taking another look at Ecopetrol." His stated method is exactly this — "changes in government and changes in policy that are economically positive can lead to tremendous knock-on effects for individual companies."
Ecopetrol is Colombia's state-controlled oil company. Under the previous left-wing government it was effectively told to stop looking for new oil, and reserves fell. Colombia has now changed government, and Polomny's rule is that a policy reversal is a real, datable catalyst: "changes in government and changes in policy that are economically positive can lead to tremendous knock-on effects for individual companies."
So the name comes back onto the list — "it's probably worth taking another look at Ecopetrol." Note this is a step up from his earlier framing (in July he said of it, "Is it a buy? I don't know"); here he groups it with the Latin American names he says are already being repriced. It remains a state-controlled company, so politics is both the reason to look and the standing risk.
41:39Well, I like Petrobras. I like the fact that we have a changing government in Colombia. So, it's probably worth taking another look at Ecopetrol, Parex, which is there also, GeoPark, these type of companies, okay? What's happening in the Vaca Muerta in Argentina, how that's exploding. Argentina is becoming an increasingly larger and larger oil exporter.
In short: Colombia's new right-wing president has decreed he will replace the board and management of state-controlled Ecopetrol, whose prior leadership stifled oil & gas investment until reserves declined. "Is it a buy? I don't know." Flagged as a regime-change rerating candidate to watch, not a call.
Ecopetrol is Colombia's government-controlled oil company. The outgoing left-wing government discouraged new oil and gas drilling to the point that Colombia's oil reserves have been shrinking. Now a new right-wing president says he'll replace Ecopetrol's board and management with people keen to develop the country's resources. Polomny's interest is the pattern — when a country swings from left to right, its beaten-down stock market can re-rate higher — but he's explicitly not making a call on the stock itself: "Is it a buy? I don't know." A situation to watch, not a recommendation.
24:47more market friendly laws to their economies and if that has an effect on increasing economic growth. I find it interesting that in Colombia, for example, the right-wing candidate was elected, one of the first things he's decreed he's going to do when he takes power is replace the management and board of directors at Ecopetrol.
In short: The March pick — Colombia's state-controlled oil giant (~745k boe/d heavy crude shipped to Gulf Coast refiners built for its grade), lifting costs <$12/bbl, ~16% dividend yield, ~$15 at ~12.6× earnings. A structural SPR-refill supplier outside the Mideast. Buy up to $18.00; conservative $18-20 target = 20-34% upside.
Ecopetrol is Colombia's national oil company. Prins likes it because it pumps the exact kind of thick "heavy" crude that US Gulf Coast refineries were built to process — and the US, having just drained its emergency oil reserve, is going to be a big buyer of that crude for years. So there's a built-in customer for what Ecopetrol sells.
On top of that, the stock is cheap (about 12-13 times earnings versus 31 for Chevron) and pays a roughly 16% dividend — meaning if you own the shares you collect around 16% of your investment in cash each year, more than double a 10-year Treasury. Its production costs are very low (under $12 a barrel), so it makes money even when oil is cheap. The big catch is politics: Colombia's current president is hostile to oil and there's a scandal around the CEO — but he's term-limited out in August 2026, which Prins thinks could lift the cloud over the stock. Her recommendation is to buy up to $18 a share (it's around $15).
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.